MLB Slate
2026-09-30 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
4
First pitch
2:00 PM
Final
4
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
4 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:00 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 88-74
@ Atlanta Braves 94-68
|
Cristopher Sanchez
· 2.60 · 10.4
Tyler Mahle
· 3.99 · 8.3
|
Final/10
4–3
|
-111 / +102 | 7 | 48% | 51% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 5:00 PM |
Chicago White Sox 84-78
@ Houston Astros 81-81
|
Sean Burke
· 3.72 · 9.8
Hunter Brown
· 3.11 · 10.3
|
Final
7–3
|
+134 / -145 | 7.5 | 58% | 54% | model leans away |
| 8:00 PM |
Boston Red Sox 87-75
@ New York Yankees 93-68
|
Sonny Gray
· 2.82 · 7.8
Max Fried
· 2.80 · 8.3
|
Final
2–9
|
+117 / -127 | 6.5 | 55% | 53% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 10:00 PM |
Chicago Cubs 89-73
@ San Diego Padres 91-71
|
Kevin Gausman
· 4.51 · 9.3
Nick Pivetta
· 2.86 · 10.9
|
Final
1–4
|
+131 / -142 | 7.5 | 58% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |