MLB Slate
2026-07-03 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
13
First pitch
4:05 PM
Final
13
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
13 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:05 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 45-39
@ Chicago Cubs 49-38
|
Andre Pallante
· 3.91 · 6.1
David Peterson
· 5.17 · 8.7
|
Final
17–1
|
+112 / -122 | 11 | 54% | 59% | model leans home |
| 6:45 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 44-44
@ Washington Nationals 45-43
|
Mitch Keller
· 5.29 · 6.9
Foster Griffin
· 3.42 · 8.1
|
Final
5–9
|
— | — | — | 57% | — |
| 7:05 PM |
Minnesota Twins 42-46
@ New York Yankees 48-38
|
Mike Paredes
· 4.50 · 4.5
Gerrit Cole
· 3.61 · 9.3
|
Final
2–5
|
— | — | — | 67% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 40-48
@ Cincinnati Reds 40-46
|
Trevor Rogers
· 4.07 · 8.1
Brady Singer
· 5.66 · 7.2
|
Final
3–0
|
— | — | — | 51% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Chicago White Sox 45-41
@ Cleveland Guardians 46-42
|
Anthony Kay
· 4.53 · 7.6
Gavin Williams
· 3.76 · 12.1
|
Final/10
3–4
|
— | — | — | 58% | — |
| 7:15 PM |
New York Mets 36-51
@ Atlanta Braves 50-35
|
Christian Scott
· 3.77 · 10.9
Grant Holmes
· 3.73 · 6.9
|
Final
3–5
|
— | — | — | 59% | — |
| 8:10 PM |
San Francisco Giants 36-50
@ Colorado Rockies 35-53
|
Logan Webb
· 4.31 · 7.5
Ryan Feltner
· 6.19 · 6.4
|
Final
3–15
|
-142 / +131 | 11.5 | 42% | 39% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:15 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 51-33
@ Houston Astros 43-46
|
Nick Martinez
· 3.20 · 5.4
Spencer Arrighetti
· 5.03 · 8.8
|
Final
3–1
|
— | — | — | 50% | — |
| 9:38 PM |
Boston Red Sox 37-48
@ Los Angeles Angels 36-52
|
Jake Bennett
· 3.58 · 7.2
Reid Detmers
· 3.28 · 10.2
|
Final
5–2
|
+101 / -109 | 8 | 51% | 48% | model leans away |
| 9:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 46-42
@ Athletics 41-46
|
Tyler Phillips
· 3.90 · 6.8
Jack Perkins
· 6.75 · 10.5
|
Final
12–5
|
+123 / -133 | 11 | 56% | 51% | model leans away |
| 9:45 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 53-32
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 43-43
|
Kyle Harrison
· 4.11 · 10.6
Jose Cabrera
· 5.32 · 6.5
|
Final/11
7–4
|
-129 / +119 | 8.5 | 45% | 42% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 10:10 PM |
San Diego Padres 43-43
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 57-31
|
Michael King
· 3.21 · 7.7
Shohei Ohtani
· 1.79 · 10.0
|
Final
3–4
|
+235 / -263 | 8 | 71% | 63% | model leans away |
| 10:10 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 41-46
@ Seattle Mariners 45-43
|
Dylan Cease
· 2.48 · 12.8
Luis Castillo
· 5.37 · 7.6
|
Final
2–0
|
-125 / +115 | 7 | 45% | 53% | model leans home |