MLB Slate
2026-07-04 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
11:05 AM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:05 AM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 44-45
@ Washington Nationals 46-43
|
Braxton Ashcraft
· 3.59 · 9.4
Zack Littell
· 6.18 · 5.5
|
Final
7–1
|
-147 / +136 | 10.5 | 41% | 51% | model leans home |
| 1:35 PM |
Minnesota Twins 42-47
@ New York Yankees 49-38
|
Zebby Matthews
· 4.90 · 8.0
Carlos Rodon
· 2.62 · 9.7
|
Final
11–4
|
+135 / -147 | 10.5 | 58% | 64% | model leans home |
| 4:05 PM |
Detroit Tigers 38-50
@ Texas Rangers 45-43
|
Jack Flaherty
· 4.59 · 10.6
Kumar Rocker
· 4.49 · 8.2
|
Final
3–0
|
-119 / +110 | 8.5 | 47% | 53% | model leans home |
| 4:10 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 42-46
@ Seattle Mariners 45-44
|
Shane Bieber
· 4.37 · 7.1
Logan Gilbert
· 3.73 · 9.9
|
Final
0–11
|
+144 / -157 | 7.5 | 60% | 55% | model leans away |
| 7:10 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 41-48
@ Cincinnati Reds 40-47
|
Brandon Young
· 3.49 · 7.6
Hunter Greene
· 6.83 · 10.7
|
Final
8–5
|
— | — | — | 59% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Chicago White Sox 45-42
@ Cleveland Guardians 47-42
|
Sean Burke
· 3.72 · 9.8
Parker Messick
· 2.56 · 9.3
|
Final
3–1
|
— | — | — | 61% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 52-33
@ Houston Astros 43-47
|
Drew Rasmussen
· 2.67 · 9.1
Hunter Brown
· 3.11 · 10.3
|
Final
8–10
|
— | — | — | 49% | — |
| 8:08 PM |
New York Mets 36-52
@ Atlanta Braves 51-35
|
Sean Manaea
· 5.05 · 8.1
Chris Sale
· 2.16 · 11.1
|
Final
3–14
|
+166 / -182 | 8 | 63% | 67% | model leans home |
| 8:08 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 46-39
@ Chicago Cubs 49-39
|
Kyle Leahy
· 3.66 · 8.5
Shota Imanaga
· 3.83 · 8.9
|
Final
3–0
|
+149 / -162 | 8 | 61% | 59% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:10 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 49-39
@ Kansas City Royals 35-53
|
Jesus Luzardo
· 3.18 · 11.1
Michael Wacha
· 3.37 · 7.2
|
Final
6–1
|
-150 / +138 | 9 | 41% | 46% | model leans home |
| 8:10 PM |
San Francisco Giants 36-51
@ Colorado Rockies 36-53
|
Robbie Ray
· 3.73 · 7.5
Tomoyuki Sugano
· 5.36 · 5.6
|
Final
6–4
|
-123 / +113 | 12.5 | 46% | 45% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:38 PM |
Boston Red Sox 38-48
@ Los Angeles Angels 36-53
|
Sonny Gray
· 2.82 · 7.8
Sam Aldegheri
· 6.31 · 4.9
|
Final
8–1
|
-168 / +154 | 8.5 | 38% | 40% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 47-42
@ Athletics 41-47
|
Sandy Alcantara
· 3.92 · 6.5
Aaron Civale
· 5.23 · 6.7
|
Final
7–2
|
-133 / +123 | 11.5 | 44% | 50% | model leans home |
| 9:40 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 54-32
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 43-44
|
Brandon Woodruff
· 2.98 · 9.3
Merrill Kelly
· 4.94 · 6.3
|
Final
3–4
|
-154 / +142 | 9.5 | 40% | 39% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 10:10 PM |
San Diego Padres 43-44
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 58-31
|
Griffin Canning
· 6.79 · 9.1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
· 2.53 · 8.9
|
Final
0–3
|
+229 / -256 | 8.5 | 71% | 69% | agrees within 3 pts |