MLB Slate
2026-07-05 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
12:30 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 PM |
New York Mets 36-53
@ Atlanta Braves 52-35
|
Nolan McLean
· 2.99 · 9.6
Martín Pérez
· 5.03 · 5.5
|
Final
10–9
|
— | — | — | 58% | — |
| 1:00 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 45-45
@ Washington Nationals 46-44
|
Bubba Chandler
· 4.72 · 8.1
Cade Cavalli
· 3.02 · 10.6
|
Final
11–5
|
+125 / -135 | 10 | 57% | 56% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 1:05 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 42-48
@ Cincinnati Reds 40-48
|
Kyle Bradish
· 4.12 · 8.2
Nick Lodolo
· 4.97 · 6.9
|
Final
2–3
|
-108 / +100 | 9.5 | 49% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 1:35 PM |
Minnesota Twins 43-47
@ New York Yankees 49-39
|
Joe Ryan
· 4.07 · 10.1
Ryan Weathers
· 3.77 · 9.4
|
Final
6–1
|
+121 / -131 | 8 | 56% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:00 PM |
Chicago White Sox 46-42
@ Cleveland Guardians 47-43
|
Chris Murphy
· 20.25 · 10.1
Tanner Bibee
· 4.34 · 6.8
|
Final
7–6
|
+119 / -128 | 8 | 55% | 57% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:30 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 47-39
@ Chicago Cubs 49-40
|
Matthew Liberatore
· 5.23 · 8.9
Javier Assad
· 3.71 · 6.2
|
Final
4–6
|
— | — | — | 59% | — |
| 3:00 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 50-39
@ Kansas City Royals 35-54
|
Aaron Nola
· 4.67 · 9.1
Luinder Avila
· 6.10 · 7.8
|
Final
2–5
|
-126 / +116 | 10 | 45% | 43% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:30 PM |
Detroit Tigers 39-50
@ Texas Rangers 45-44
|
Casey Mize
· 3.87 · 7.7
Kumar Rocker
· 4.49 · 8.2
|
Final
6–3
|
-120 / +111 | 8 | 46% | 52% | model leans home |
| 3:30 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 52-34
@ Houston Astros 44-47
|
Griffin Jax
· 3.32 · 9.3
Peter Lambert
· 3.82 · 8.9
|
Final
0–2
|
+102 / -110 | 9 | 51% | 49% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:00 PM |
San Francisco Giants 37-51
@ Colorado Rockies 36-54
|
Tyler Mahle
· 3.99 · 8.3
Tanner Gordon
· 7.97 · 6.5
|
Final
6–7
|
— | — | — | 41% | — |
| 4:00 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 54-33
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 44-44
|
Brandon Sproat
· 5.20 · 9.5
Eduardo Rodriguez
· 2.74 · 6.8
|
Final
3–2
|
— | — | — | 46% | — |
| 4:30 PM |
Miami Marlins 48-42
@ Athletics 41-48
|
Eury Pérez
· 1.38 · 9.7
Gage Jump
· 5.56 · 9.9
|
Final
9–8
|
+105 / -113 | 10 | 52% | 50% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 5:00 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 42-47
@ Seattle Mariners 46-44
|
Trey Yesavage
· 3.76 · 9.1
Emerson Hancock
· 3.53 · 8.1
|
Final
0–4
|
+106 / -114 | 7.5 | 52% | 50% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:20 PM |
San Diego Padres 43-45
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 59-31
|
JP Sears
· 4.76 · 7.0
Emmet Sheehan
· 4.79 · 10.3
|
Final
5–2
|
— | — | — | 64% | — |
| 9:30 PM |
Boston Red Sox 39-48
@ Los Angeles Angels 36-54
|
Ranger Suarez
· 3.10 · 8.5
Ryan Johnson
· 4.68 · 7.5
|
Final
7–5
|
-155 / +143 | 8 | 40% | 42% | agrees within 3 pts |