MLB Slate
2026-07-09 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
13
First pitch
12:35 PM
Final
13
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
13 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM |
Atlanta Braves 53-38
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 47-46
|
Chris Sale
· 2.16 · 11.1
Mitch Keller
· 5.29 · 6.9
|
Final
10–5
|
-104 / -104 | 10 | 50% | 40% | model leans away |
| 1:10 PM |
Kansas City Royals 38-55
@ New York Mets 39-54
|
Michael Wacha
· 3.37 · 7.2
Sean Manaea
· 5.05 · 8.1
|
Final
3–7
|
+123 / -133 | 9 | 56% | 52% | model leans away |
| 1:10 PM |
New York Yankees 50-42
@ Tampa Bay Rays 54-36
|
TBD
Drew Rasmussen
· 2.67 · 9.1
|
Final
12–4
|
+129 / -140 | 7.5 | 57% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 1:30 PM |
Chicago Cubs 52-40
@ Baltimore Orioles 42-51
|
David Peterson
· 5.17 · 8.7
Trevor Rogers
· 4.07 · 8.1
|
Final
2–3
|
+110 / -119 | 10 | 53% | 49% | model leans away |
| 1:40 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 47-46
@ Minnesota Twins 46-47
|
Gavin Williams
· 3.76 · 12.1
Mike Paredes
· 4.50 · 4.5
|
Final
5–2
|
-113 / +105 | 8.5 | 48% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:10 PM |
Boston Red Sox 42-48
@ Chicago White Sox 47-44
|
Patrick Sandoval
· 5.28 · 9.4
Anthony Kay
· 4.53 · 7.6
|
Final
2–1
|
+101 / -109 | 9 | 51% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Athletics 41-51
@ Detroit Tigers 42-50
|
Jack Perkins
· 6.75 · 10.5
Framber Valdez
· 4.20 · 7.0
|
Final
1–4
|
— | — | — | 61% | — |
| 6:40 PM |
Seattle Mariners 47-46
@ Miami Marlins 51-42
|
Bryce Miller
· 4.06 · 9.1
Tyler Phillips
· 3.90 · 6.8
|
Final
4–8
|
— | — | — | 50% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 51-42
@ Cincinnati Reds 42-49
|
Jesus Luzardo
· 3.18 · 11.1
Brady Singer
· 5.66 · 7.2
|
Final
1–0
|
— | — | — | 45% | — |
| 7:45 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 58-34
@ St. Louis Cardinals 48-43
|
Logan Henderson
· 2.44 · 9.9
Kyle Leahy
· 3.66 · 8.5
|
Final
8–4
|
— | — | — | 43% | — |
| 8:05 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 37-56
@ Texas Rangers 46-46
|
Reid Detmers
· 3.28 · 10.2
Nathan Eovaldi
· 4.14 · 9.2
|
Final
6–7
|
+121 / -131 | 7.5 | 56% | 63% | model leans home |
| 9:40 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 45-47
@ San Diego Padres 46-46
|
Merrill Kelly
· 4.94 · 6.3
Griffin Canning
· 6.79 · 9.1
|
Final
3–1
|
+111 / -120 | 9 | 54% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:45 PM |
Colorado Rockies 38-56
@ San Francisco Giants 38-54
|
Ryan Feltner
· 6.19 · 6.4
Robbie Ray
· 3.73 · 7.5
|
Final
2–8
|
— | — | — | 61% | — |