MLB Slate
2026-07-18 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
16
First pitch
1:10 PM
Final
16
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
16 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 50-47
@ Cleveland Guardians 51-46
|
Jared Jones
· 3.59 · 11.0
Gavin Williams
· 3.76 · 12.1
|
Final
7–1
|
+115 / -124 | 7.5 | 54% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:20 PM |
Minnesota Twins 49-49
@ Chicago Cubs 54-43
|
Taj Bradley
· 3.73 · 10.3
Matthew Boyd
· 3.91 · 6.8
|
Final
2–6
|
— | — | — | 61% | — |
| 3:05 PM |
New York Mets 41-57
@ Philadelphia Phillies 54-44
|
Sean Manaea
· 5.05 · 8.1
Jesus Luzardo
· 3.18 · 11.1
|
Final
1–6
|
+152 / -166 | 9 | 61% | 61% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:07 PM |
Chicago White Sox 51-45
@ Toronto Blue Jays 45-52
|
Davis Martin
· 3.58 · 8.0
Shane Bieber
· 4.37 · 7.1
|
Final
0–1
|
+101 / -109 | 9.5 | 51% | 55% | model leans home |
| 3:10 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 44-52
@ Colorado Rockies 39-60
|
Rhett Lowder
· 6.13 · 7.3
Tomoyuki Sugano
· 5.36 · 5.6
|
Final
3–10
|
-109 / +100 | 12.5 | 49% | 45% | model leans away |
| 4:10 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 56-40
@ Boston Red Sox 48-48
|
Ian Seymour
· 4.44 · 11.8
Patrick Sandoval
· 5.28 · 9.4
|
Final
6–7
|
+103 / -112 | 9.5 | 52% | 50% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:10 PM |
Texas Rangers 49-48
@ Atlanta Braves 56-40
|
MacKenzie Gore
· 4.74 · 9.2
Owen Murphy
· 6.75 · 6.8
|
Final
7–6
|
+104 / -112 | 9 | 52% | 56% | model leans home |
| 4:10 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 47-51
@ Houston Astros 47-52
|
Trevor Rogers
· 4.07 · 8.1
Spencer Arrighetti
· 5.03 · 8.8
|
Final/11
4–2
|
-104 / -104 | 8.5 | 50% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:10 PM |
Miami Marlins 52-46
@ Milwaukee Brewers 60-37
|
Max Meyer
· 2.68 · 9.8
Shane Drohan
· 5.07 · 9.0
|
Final
6–8
|
+121 / -131 | 8 | 56% | 59% | model leans home |
| 4:10 PM |
San Diego Padres 48-49
@ Kansas City Royals 39-59
|
Griffin Canning
· 6.79 · 9.1
Randy Dobnak
· 3.92 · 6.6
|
Final
1–6
|
-105 / -103 | 11 | 50% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:10 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 51-45
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 49-48
|
Dustin May
· 4.77 · 9.0
Brandon Pfaadt
· 3.38 · 5.8
|
Final
3–5
|
+105 / -113 | 8.5 | 52% | 53% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:10 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 50-47
@ Cleveland Guardians 51-46
|
Braxton Ashcraft
· 3.59 · 9.4
Joey Cantillo
· 4.01 · 9.6
|
Final
3–5
|
— | — | — | 52% | — |
| 8:08 PM |
Los Angeles Dodgers 62-36
@ New York Yankees 54-43
|
Emmet Sheehan
· 4.79 · 10.3
Ryan Weathers
· 3.77 · 9.4
|
Postponed
0–0
|
— | — | — | 46% | — |
| 8:08 PM |
San Francisco Giants 42-55
@ Seattle Mariners 48-50
|
Logan Webb
· 4.31 · 7.5
Bryan Woo
· 4.17 · 9.2
|
Final/10
3–4
|
+144 / -157 | 7 | 60% | 55% | model leans away |
| 10:05 PM |
Washington Nationals 49-49
@ Athletics 41-56
|
Zack Littell
· 6.18 · 5.5
J.T. Ginn
· 3.59 · 8.0
|
Final
1–15
|
-107 / -101 | 11.5 | 49% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 10:07 PM |
Detroit Tigers 45-52
@ Los Angeles Angels 38-60
|
Tarik Skubal
· 2.71 · 10.6
Grayson Rodriguez
· 6.28 · 7.8
|
Final
7–0
|
-203 / +185 | 8 | 34% | 41% | model leans home |