MLB Slate
2026-09-01 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
6:40 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM |
New York Mets 62-76
@ Tampa Bay Rays 82-55
|
Sean Manaea
· 5.05 · 8.1
Freddy Peralta
· 4.14 · 8.3
|
Final
2–6
|
+120 / -130 | 8 | 56% | 61% | model leans home |
| 6:40 PM |
San Diego Padres 73-65
@ Cincinnati Reds 65-73
|
Randy Vasquez
· 3.89 · 5.7
Nick Lodolo
· 4.97 · 6.9
|
Final
3–4
|
-131 / +121 | 9 | 44% | 51% | model leans home |
| 6:40 PM |
San Francisco Giants 57-81
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 67-71
|
Logan Webb
· 4.31 · 7.5
Paul Skenes
· 3.77 · 10.3
|
Final
12–13
|
+149 / -163 | 7.5 | 61% | 56% | model leans away |
| 6:40 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 68-70
@ Cleveland Guardians 69-68
|
Spencer Arrighetti
· 5.03 · 8.8
Gavin Williams
· 3.76 · 12.1
|
Final
1–6
|
+156 / -170 | 8 | 62% | 56% | model leans away |
| 6:45 PM |
Atlanta Braves 82-56
@ Washington Nationals 66-74
|
AJ Smith-Shawver
· 7.71 · 7.7
Jake Irvin
· 5.52 · 9.4
|
Final
5–9
|
-136 / +125 | 10 | 43% | 44% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:45 PM |
Seattle Mariners 64-74
@ Boston Red Sox 75-63
|
Bryan Woo
· 4.17 · 9.2
Sonny Gray
· 2.82 · 7.8
|
Final
9–6
|
+102 / -111 | 7.5 | 52% | 61% | model leans home |
| 7:40 PM |
Detroit Tigers 63-74
@ Minnesota Twins 66-72
|
Troy Melton
· 2.93 · 7.5
Connor Prielipp
· 5.09 · 9.1
|
Final
2–15
|
+102 / -110 | 8.5 | 51% | 47% | model leans away |
| 7:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 69-69
@ Kansas City Royals 62-76
|
Ryan Gusto
· 4.33 · 7.4
Randy Dobnak
· 3.92 · 6.6
|
Final
6–3
|
-101 / -107 | 10 | 51% | 51% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:40 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 85-53
@ Chicago Cubs 78-60
|
Robert Gasser
· 4.11 · 8.7
Matthew Boyd
· 3.91 · 6.8
|
Final
9–4
|
+110 / -119 | 10 | 53% | 54% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:05 PM |
Athletics 53-85
@ Texas Rangers 68-70
|
J.T. Ginn
· 3.59 · 8.0
MacKenzie Gore
· 4.74 · 9.2
|
Final
5–8
|
+191 / -211 | 7.5 | 67% | 60% | model leans away |
| 8:10 PM |
Chicago White Sox 72-65
@ Houston Astros 70-68
|
Sean Burke
· 3.72 · 9.8
Hayden Wesneski
· 3.27 · 6.9
|
Final
5–1
|
-106 / -102 | 8.5 | 50% | 53% | model leans home |
| 8:40 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 69-69
@ Colorado Rockies 52-86
|
Trevor Rogers
· 4.07 · 8.1
Gabriel Hughes
· 6.47 · 7.8
|
Final
2–4
|
-151 / +139 | 11 | 41% | 42% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:38 PM |
New York Yankees 78-60
@ Los Angeles Angels 53-85
|
Gerrit Cole
· 3.61 · 9.3
Walbert Urena
· 3.31 · 8.8
|
Final
7–3
|
-171 / +156 | 7.5 | 38% | 40% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:40 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 78-60
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 73-66
|
Jesus Luzardo
· 3.18 · 11.1
Eduardo Rodriguez
· 2.74 · 6.8
|
Final
7–1
|
-122 / +113 | 7.5 | 46% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 10:10 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 68-70
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 82-55
|
Michael McGreevy
· 3.95 · 6.1
Eric Lauer
· 4.90 · 6.3
|
Final
13–8
|
+176 / -193 | 9 | 65% | 62% | agrees within 3 pts |