MLB Slate
2026-09-09 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
1:10 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM |
Minnesota Twins 69-76
@ Detroit Tigers 66-79
|
Zebby Matthews
· 4.90 · 8.0
Keider Montero
· 3.69 · 5.7
|
Final
2–7
|
+109 / -118 | 8.5 | 53% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:05 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 73-73
@ Athletics 58-88
|
Braydon Fisher
· 0.79 · 8.7
Brady Basso
· 7.56 · 6.5
|
Final
0–2
|
-153 / +141 | 9.5 | 41% | 45% | model leans home |
| 3:45 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 72-74
@ San Francisco Giants 61-85
|
Andre Pallante
· 3.91 · 6.1
Matt Wilkinson
· 4.37 · 6.4
|
Final
6–7
|
-114 / +105 | 8 | 48% | 50% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:10 PM |
Texas Rangers 72-73
@ Seattle Mariners 67-78
|
Cal Quantrill
· 2.47 · 7.2
Kade Anderson
· 3.79 · 8.1
|
Final
2–3
|
+137 / -149 | 7.5 | 59% | 51% | model leans away |
| 4:10 PM |
Washington Nationals 67-80
@ San Diego Padres 77-68
|
Jackson Kent
· 6.40 · 7.5
Walker Buehler
· 4.69 · 7.7
|
Final
2–9
|
+170 / -186 | 8.5 | 64% | 61% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:35 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 74-72
@ Baltimore Orioles 70-76
|
Foster Griffin
· 3.42 · 8.1
Shane Baz
· 4.11 · 7.7
|
Final
5–9
|
-113 / +105 | 8.5 | 48% | 51% | model leans home |
| 6:40 PM |
Houston Astros 74-71
@ Philadelphia Phillies 81-64
|
Hunter Brown
· 3.11 · 10.3
Cristopher Sanchez
· 2.60 · 10.4
|
Final
7–11
|
+130 / -141 | 8 | 58% | 57% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
New York Mets 67-78
@ Miami Marlins 72-74
|
Robert Stock
· 6.00 · 8.7
Janson Junk
· 4.21 · 6.6
|
Final
15–14
|
+108 / -117 | 9 | 53% | 53% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:45 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 55-90
@ Boston Red Sox 80-66
|
Ryan Johnson
· 4.68 · 7.5
Ranger Suarez
· 3.10 · 8.5
|
Final
6–4
|
+193 / -213 | 9 | 67% | 71% | model leans home |
| 7:05 PM |
Colorado Rockies 55-89
@ New York Yankees 82-62
|
Tomoyuki Sugano
· 5.36 · 5.6
Max Fried
· 2.80 · 8.3
|
Final
1–6
|
+212 / -236 | 9.5 | 69% | 75% | model leans home |
| 7:15 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 86-58
@ Atlanta Braves 85-60
|
Griffin Jax
· 3.32 · 9.3
Grant Holmes
· 3.73 · 6.9
|
Final
7–2
|
+111 / -120 | 8 | 54% | 53% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:40 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 78-68
@ Kansas City Royals 64-82
|
Merrill Kelly
· 4.94 · 6.3
Daniel Lynch IV
· 6.53 · 4.7
|
Final
2–5
|
-111 / +103 | 8.5 | 48% | 45% | model leans away |
| 7:40 PM |
Chicago Cubs 81-65
@ Milwaukee Brewers 90-56
|
Kevin Gausman
· 4.51 · 9.3
Logan Henderson
· 2.44 · 9.9
|
Final
6–8
|
+117 / -127 | 7.5 | 55% | 57% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:40 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 72-73
@ Chicago White Sox 75-69
|
Lake Bachar
· 2.16 · 10.1
Davis Martin
· 3.58 · 8.0
|
Final
4–2
|
+117 / -127 | 9 | 55% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 10:10 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 69-76
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 88-57
|
Rhett Lowder
· 6.13 · 7.3
Tarik Skubal
· 2.71 · 10.6
|
Final
1–14
|
+239 / -268 | 8 | 72% | 78% | model leans home |