MLB Slate
2026-09-11 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
2:20 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:20 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 74-73
@ Chicago Cubs 81-66
|
Braxton Ashcraft
· 3.59 · 9.4
Shota Imanaga
· 3.83 · 8.9
|
Final
2–12
|
+172 / -188 | 8 | 64% | 59% | model leans away |
| 6:40 PM |
Colorado Rockies 55-91
@ Detroit Tigers 67-79
|
Mason Adams
· 4.03 · 9.6
Framber Valdez
· 4.20 · 7.0
|
Final
2–6
|
— | 8 | — | 65% | — |
| 6:45 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 56-90
@ Washington Nationals 67-81
|
Yusei Kikuchi
· 4.92 · 8.9
Cade Cavalli
· 3.02 · 10.6
|
Final
3–4
|
— | 7.5 | — | 56% | — |
| 7:05 PM |
New York Mets 68-78
@ New York Yankees 84-62
|
Nolan McLean
· 2.99 · 9.6
Gerrit Cole
· 3.61 · 9.3
|
Final
4–6
|
— | 8 | — | 60% | — |
| 7:07 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 71-76
@ Toronto Blue Jays 73-74
|
Kyle Bradish
· 4.12 · 8.2
Max Scherzer
· 5.74 · 7.2
|
Final
7–4
|
— | 8 | — | 52% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Houston Astros 75-72
@ Tampa Bay Rays 87-59
|
Ethan Pecko
· 5.85 · 5.8
Nick Martinez
· 3.20 · 5.4
|
Final
1–3
|
— | 8 | — | 57% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Kansas City Royals 65-82
@ Boston Red Sox 80-67
|
Seth Lugo
· 5.17 · 7.0
Ranger Suarez
· 3.10 · 8.5
|
Final
3–2
|
— | 8.5 | — | 62% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Los Angeles Dodgers 89-57
@ Miami Marlins 72-75
|
Blake Snell
· 1.90 · 11.6
Ryan Gusto
· 4.33 · 7.4
|
Final
6–2
|
— | 7.5 | — | 41% | — |
| 7:15 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 82-65
@ Atlanta Braves 86-61
|
Aaron Nola
· 4.67 · 9.1
Chris Sale
· 2.16 · 11.1
|
Final/11
5–6
|
— | 7 | — | 60% | — |
| 7:40 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 69-77
@ Milwaukee Brewers 91-56
|
Andrew Abbott
· 4.69 · 7.2
Shane Drohan
· 5.07 · 9.0
|
Final
0–20
|
— | 8 | — | 66% | — |
| 8:10 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 74-73
@ Minnesota Twins 69-77
|
Parker Messick
· 2.56 · 9.3
Taj Bradley
· 3.73 · 10.3
|
Final
5–2
|
— | 7.5 | — | 47% | — |
| 8:15 PM |
Chicago White Sox 75-71
@ St. Louis Cardinals 72-75
|
Erick Fedde
· 3.86 · 6.7
Matthew Liberatore
· 5.23 · 8.9
|
Final
3–7
|
— | 7.5 | — | 53% | — |
| 9:40 PM |
Seattle Mariners 69-78
@ Athletics 59-88
|
George Kirby
· 4.33 · 7.6
Jeffrey Springs
· 5.97 · 6.9
|
Final/10
5–6
|
-154 / +142 | 10.5 | 40% | 46% | model leans home |
| 9:40 PM |
Texas Rangers 72-75
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 78-69
|
Jacob deGrom
· 4.20 · 11.1
Merrill Kelly
· 4.94 · 6.3
|
Final
1–9
|
+102 / -110 | 9 | 51% | 51% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 10:15 PM |
San Diego Padres 78-68
@ San Francisco Giants 62-85
|
Robbie Ray
· 3.73 · 7.5
Anthony Molina
· 4.38 · 10.2
|
Final
7–5
|
-154 / +142 | 7.5 | 40% | 45% | model leans home |