MLB Slate
2026-09-12 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
1:10 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM |
Colorado Rockies 55-92
@ Detroit Tigers 68-79
|
Tanner Gordon
· 7.97 · 6.5
Jackson Jobe
· 3.91 · 10.0
|
Final
7–11
|
+150 / -164 | 8.5 | 61% | 65% | model leans home |
| 1:35 PM |
New York Mets 68-79
@ New York Yankees 85-62
|
Zac Thornton
· 3.63 · 6.4
Gerrit Cole
· 3.61 · 9.3
|
Final
12–2
|
+145 / -157 | 8 | 60% | 65% | model leans home |
| 2:20 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 74-74
@ Chicago Cubs 82-66
|
Paul Skenes
· 3.77 · 10.3
Clay Holmes
· 3.29 · 6.9
|
Final
3–4
|
+110 / -119 | 9 | 53% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:07 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 72-76
@ Toronto Blue Jays 73-75
|
Trevor Rogers
· 4.07 · 8.1
Spencer Arrighetti
· 5.03 · 8.8
|
Final
3–7
|
+121 / -131 | 8 | 56% | 52% | model leans away |
| 4:05 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 56-91
@ Washington Nationals 68-81
|
Walbert Urena
· 3.31 · 8.8
Andrew Alvarez
· 3.35 · 9.0
|
Final/10
5–6
|
+118 / -127 | 8 | 55% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:05 PM |
San Diego Padres 79-68
@ San Francisco Giants 62-86
|
Michael King
· 3.21 · 7.7
Anthony Molina
· 4.38 · 10.2
|
Final
7–6
|
-177 / +162 | 8 | 37% | 42% | model leans home |
| 4:10 PM |
Kansas City Royals 66-82
@ Boston Red Sox 80-68
|
Randy Dobnak
· 3.92 · 6.6
Sonny Gray
· 2.82 · 7.8
|
Final
1–5
|
+192 / -211 | 8.5 | 67% | 64% | model leans away |
| 4:10 PM |
Los Angeles Dodgers 90-57
@ Miami Marlins 72-76
|
Tyler Glasnow
· 3.53 · 11.9
Tyler Phillips
· 3.90 · 6.8
|
Final
3–4
|
-156 / +143 | 8 | 40% | 40% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:10 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 75-73
@ Minnesota Twins 69-78
|
Gavin Williams
· 3.76 · 12.1
Bailey Ober
· 4.57 · 6.9
|
Final
3–4
|
-104 / -104 | 8.5 | 50% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:10 PM |
Houston Astros 75-73
@ Tampa Bay Rays 88-59
|
Peter Lambert
· 3.82 · 8.9
Drew Rasmussen
· 2.67 · 9.1
|
Final
2–3
|
+124 / -135 | 7.5 | 56% | 60% | model leans home |
| 7:10 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 69-78
@ Milwaukee Brewers 92-56
|
Brady Singer
· 5.66 · 7.2
Dustin May
· 4.77 · 9.0
|
Final
9–13
|
+163 / -178 | 8.5 | 63% | 68% | model leans home |
| 7:15 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 82-66
@ Atlanta Braves 87-61
|
Jesus Luzardo
· 3.18 · 11.1
Tyler Mahle
· 3.99 · 8.3
|
Final
2–12
|
+120 / -130 | 8.5 | 56% | 50% | model leans away |
| 7:15 PM |
Chicago White Sox 75-72
@ St. Louis Cardinals 73-75
|
Anthony Kay
· 4.53 · 7.6
Kyle Leahy
· 3.66 · 8.5
|
Final
6–5
|
-102 / -106 | 8.5 | 50% | 56% | model leans home |
| 8:10 PM |
Texas Rangers 72-76
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 79-69
|
MacKenzie Gore
· 4.74 · 9.2
Brandon Pfaadt
· 3.38 · 5.8
|
Final
6–2
|
+119 / -129 | 8 | 55% | 57% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:40 PM |
Seattle Mariners 69-79
@ Athletics 60-88
|
Bryan Woo
· 4.17 · 9.2
Gage Jump
· 5.56 · 9.9
|
Final
19–1
|
-151 / +139 | 9.5 | 41% | 46% | model leans home |