MLB Slate
2026-09-15 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
6:40 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM |
Athletics 61-89
@ Tampa Bay Rays 90-59
|
Jack Perkins
· 6.75 · 10.5
Griffin Jax
· 3.32 · 9.3
|
Final
1–2
|
+199 / -220 | 8 | 68% | 69% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Chicago White Sox 77-73
@ Cleveland Guardians 76-75
|
Davis Martin
· 3.58 · 8.0
Foster Griffin
· 3.42 · 8.1
|
Final
6–7
|
+132 / -144 | 9 | 58% | 54% | model leans away |
| 6:40 PM |
Los Angeles Dodgers 91-59
@ Cincinnati Reds 70-80
|
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
· 2.53 · 8.9
Rhett Lowder
· 6.13 · 7.3
|
Final
4–0
|
-232 / +209 | 8.5 | 31% | 37% | model leans home |
| 6:40 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 93-57
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 75-75
|
Jacob Misiorowski
· 1.88 · 13.0
Lake Bachar
· 2.16 · 10.1
|
Final
5–1
|
-203 / +184 | 7.5 | 34% | 39% | model leans home |
| 6:45 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 83-67
@ Washington Nationals 70-81
|
Cristopher Sánchez
· 5.76 · 7.9
Jackson Kent
· 6.40 · 7.5
|
Final
3–6
|
-206 / +187 | 8 | 34% | 44% | model leans home |
| 7:07 PM |
Detroit Tigers 71-79
@ Toronto Blue Jays 75-76
|
Drew Anderson
· 2.81 · 9.0
Braydon Fisher
· 0.79 · 8.7
|
Final
10–1
|
+123 / -134 | 8.5 | 56% | 52% | model leans away |
| 7:10 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 73-78
@ New York Mets 69-81
|
Shane Baz
· 4.11 · 7.7
Sean Manaea
· 5.05 · 8.1
|
Final/11
7–5
|
+118 / -128 | 8 | 55% | 54% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:40 PM |
Atlanta Braves 88-63
@ Chicago Cubs 84-67
|
Martín Pérez
· 5.03 · 5.5
Kevin Gausman
· 4.51 · 9.3
|
Final
6–3
|
+127 / -138 | 8.5 | 57% | 61% | model leans home |
| 7:40 PM |
New York Yankees 87-63
@ Minnesota Twins 70-80
|
Max Fried
· 2.80 · 8.3
Bailey Ober
· 4.57 · 6.9
|
Final
8–1
|
-164 / +150 | 7.5 | 39% | 43% | model leans home |
| 7:45 PM |
San Francisco Giants 62-89
@ St. Louis Cardinals 75-76
|
Blade Tidwell
· 4.99 · 7.5
Andre Pallante
· 3.91 · 6.1
|
Final
10–3
|
+156 / -171 | 8 | 62% | 57% | model leans away |
| 8:05 PM |
Boston Red Sox 82-68
@ Texas Rangers 74-76
|
Patrick Sandoval
· 5.28 · 9.4
Cody Bradford
· 5.24 · 3.4
|
Final
2–4
|
+124 / -134 | 7.5 | 56% | 48% | model leans away |
| 8:10 PM |
Kansas City Royals 66-84
@ Houston Astros 75-75
|
Michael Wacha
· 3.37 · 7.2
Hunter Brown
· 3.11 · 10.3
|
Final
2–4
|
+140 / -152 | 8 | 59% | 57% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:40 PM |
San Diego Padres 82-68
@ Colorado Rockies 55-95
|
Walker Buehler
· 4.69 · 7.7
Ryan Feltner
· 6.19 · 6.4
|
Final
3–9
|
-182 / +166 | 11 | 37% | 39% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:38 PM |
Seattle Mariners 70-81
@ Los Angeles Angels 57-93
|
Logan Gilbert
· 3.73 · 9.9
Ryan Johnson
· 4.68 · 7.5
|
Final
1–2
|
-158 / +145 | 8 | 40% | 44% | model leans home |
| 9:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 74-77
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 80-71
|
Janson Junk
· 4.21 · 6.6
Michael Soroka
· 3.29 · 8.8
|
Final/11
4–2
|
+130 / -141 | 8.5 | 58% | 56% | agrees within 3 pts |