MLB Slate
2026-09-18 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
6:40 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:40 PM |
Chicago Cubs 85-68
@ Cincinnati Reds 71-82
|
Clay Holmes
· 3.29 · 6.9
Chase Burns
· 2.86 · 10.8
|
Final
4–6
|
-136 / +126 | 8.5 | 43% | 47% | model leans home |
| 6:40 PM |
Kansas City Royals 67-86
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 76-77
|
Randy Dobnak
· 3.92 · 6.6
Paul Skenes
· 3.77 · 10.3
|
Final
5–8
|
+166 / -181 | 8.5 | 63% | 61% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:05 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 95-58
@ Baltimore Orioles 75-78
|
Shane Drohan
· 5.07 · 9.0
Cade Povich
· 5.68 · 6.8
|
Final/10
6–5
|
-141 / +130 | 8.5 | 42% | 44% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:10 PM |
Athletics 61-92
@ Cleveland Guardians 78-75
|
Gage Jump
· 5.56 · 9.9
Joey Cantillo
· 4.01 · 9.6
|
Final
3–5
|
+195 / -215 | 8.5 | 67% | 61% | model leans away |
| 7:10 PM |
Boston Red Sox 83-70
@ Tampa Bay Rays 93-59
|
Ranger Suarez
· 3.10 · 8.5
Ian Seymour
· 4.44 · 11.8
|
Final
4–2
|
+121 / -132 | 7 | 56% | 53% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:10 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 85-68
@ New York Mets 69-84
|
Jesus Luzardo
· 3.18 · 11.1
Zac Thornton
· 3.63 · 6.4
|
Final
3–6
|
-103 / -105 | 8.5 | 50% | 44% | model leans away |
| 7:40 PM |
Detroit Tigers 72-81
@ Chicago White Sox 78-75
|
Jackson Jobe
· 3.91 · 10.0
Sean Burke
· 3.72 · 9.8
|
Final
11–8
|
+113 / -122 | 8 | 54% | 53% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:05 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 76-77
@ Texas Rangers 76-77
|
Spencer Arrighetti
· 5.03 · 8.8
MacKenzie Gore
· 4.74 · 9.2
|
Final
1–7
|
-132 / +122 | 7.5 | 44% | 52% | model leans home |
| 8:10 PM |
Atlanta Braves 89-64
@ Houston Astros 77-76
|
Chris Sale
· 2.16 · 11.1
Peter Lambert
· 3.82 · 8.9
|
Final
6–2
|
-114 / +105 | 8 | 48% | 42% | model leans away |
| 8:10 PM |
Seattle Mariners 71-82
@ Colorado Rockies 56-97
|
Bryan Woo
· 4.17 · 9.2
Gabriel Hughes
· 6.47 · 7.8
|
Final
5–4
|
-180 / +165 | 10.5 | 37% | 41% | model leans home |
| 8:15 PM |
Washington Nationals 71-82
@ St. Louis Cardinals 75-78
|
Andrew Alvarez
· 3.35 · 9.0
Kyle Leahy
· 3.66 · 8.5
|
Final
9–1
|
-107 / -101 | 7.5 | 49% | 58% | model leans home |
| 9:38 PM |
Minnesota Twins 71-82
@ Los Angeles Angels 59-94
|
Connor Prielipp
· 5.09 · 9.1
Grayson Rodriguez
· 6.28 · 7.8
|
Final
3–0
|
-106 / -102 | 8 | 50% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 76-77
@ San Diego Padres 84-69
|
Tyler Phillips
· 3.90 · 6.8
Nick Pivetta
· 2.86 · 10.9
|
Final
2–8
|
+171 / -188 | 7.5 | 64% | 65% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:40 PM |
New York Yankees 88-64
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 80-73
|
Gerrit Cole
· 3.61 · 9.3
Zac Gallen
· 6.22 · 5.5
|
Final
9–2
|
+102 / -111 | 7.5 | 52% | 45% | model leans away |
| 10:15 PM |
San Francisco Giants 64-89
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 93-60
|
Cesar Perdomo
· 3.92 · 4.4
Tyler Glasnow
· 3.53 · 11.9
|
Final
2–8
|
+261 / -294 | 8 | 73% | 70% | model leans away |