MLB Slate
2026-09-19 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
2:10 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:10 PM |
Detroit Tigers 73-81
@ Chicago White Sox 78-76
|
Troy Melton
· 2.93 · 7.5
Sean Burke
· 3.72 · 9.8
|
Final
1–3
|
— | 8 | — | 49% | — |
| 4:05 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 96-58
@ Baltimore Orioles 75-79
|
Robert Gasser
· 4.11 · 8.7
Trevor Rogers
· 4.07 · 8.1
|
Final
1–0
|
— | 7.5 | — | 45% | — |
| 4:10 PM |
Boston Red Sox 84-70
@ Tampa Bay Rays 93-60
|
Payton Tolle
· 3.03 · 10.4
Freddy Peralta
· 4.14 · 8.3
|
Final
1–2
|
— | 7.5 | — | 50% | — |
| 4:10 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 85-69
@ New York Mets 70-84
|
Andrew Painter
· 5.51 · 8.1
Christian Scott
· 3.77 · 10.9
|
Final
3–10
|
— | 8 | — | 52% | — |
| 6:10 PM |
Athletics 61-93
@ Cleveland Guardians 79-75
|
Jacob Lopez
· 5.50 · 7.8
Tanner Bibee
· 4.34 · 6.8
|
Final
6–12
|
+160 / -175 | 7.5 | 63% | 62% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Chicago Cubs 85-69
@ Cincinnati Reds 72-82
|
Matthew Boyd
· 3.91 · 6.8
Nick Lodolo
· 4.97 · 6.9
|
Final
5–2
|
-140 / +129 | 9 | 43% | 43% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Kansas City Royals 67-87
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 77-77
|
Noah Cameron
· 4.44 · 7.8
Bubba Chandler
· 4.72 · 8.1
|
Final
5–6
|
+104 / -113 | 8 | 52% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:05 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 76-78
@ Texas Rangers 77-77
|
Dylan Cease
· 2.48 · 12.8
Cal Quantrill
· 2.47 · 7.2
|
Final
2–6
|
+102 / -110 | 7.5 | 51% | 45% | model leans away |
| 7:10 PM |
Atlanta Braves 90-64
@ Houston Astros 77-77
|
Tyler Mahle
· 3.99 · 8.3
Hayden Wesneski
· 3.27 · 6.9
|
Final
6–3
|
+118 / -127 | 8.5 | 55% | 46% | model leans away |
| 7:15 PM |
Washington Nationals 72-82
@ St. Louis Cardinals 75-79
|
Andrew Alvarez
· 3.35 · 9.0
Michael McGreevy
· 3.95 · 6.1
|
Final/11
8–5
|
-107 / -101 | 8.5 | 49% | 53% | model leans home |
| 8:10 PM |
Seattle Mariners 72-82
@ Colorado Rockies 56-98
|
Bryce Miller
· 4.06 · 9.1
Tomoyuki Sugano
· 5.36 · 5.6
|
Final
3–5
|
-140 / +129 | 11 | 43% | 42% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:10 PM |
New York Yankees 89-64
@ Arizona Diamondbacks 80-74
|
Cam Schlittler
· 1.95 · 11.1
Brandon Pfaadt
· 3.38 · 5.8
|
Final
3–5
|
-153 / +140 | 7.5 | 41% | 42% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 76-78
@ San Diego Padres 85-69
|
Eury Perez
· 4.05 · 9.3
Casey Mize
· 3.87 · 7.7
|
Final/10
6–7
|
+136 / -148 | 7.5 | 59% | 57% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:10 PM |
San Francisco Giants 64-90
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 94-60
|
Logan Webb
· 4.31 · 7.5
Justin Wrobleski
· 3.58 · 7.5
|
Final
4–10
|
+336 / -388 | 7.5 | 78% | 59% | model leans away |
| 9:38 PM |
Minnesota Twins 72-82
@ Los Angeles Angels 59-95
|
Joe Ryan
· 4.07 · 10.1
Reid Detmers
· 3.28 · 10.2
|
Final/11
5–6
|
-102 / -106 | 7.5 | 50% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |