MLB Slate
2026-09-22 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
16
First pitch
1:05 PM
Final
16
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
16 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 95-60
@ New York Yankees 89-66
|
Nick Martinez
· 3.20 · 5.4
Carlos Rodon
· 2.62 · 9.7
|
Final
0–2
|
+125 / -136 | 7 | 57% | 56% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:35 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 77-80
@ Baltimore Orioles 76-81
|
Max Scherzer
· 5.74 · 7.2
Chris Bassitt
· 4.71 · 6.3
|
Postponed
0–0
|
+108 / -117 | 7.5 | 53% | 51% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 98-58
@ Philadelphia Phillies 86-70
|
Dustin May
· 4.77 · 9.0
Zack Wheeler
· 3.00 · 10.7
|
Final
4–6
|
+123 / -134 | 7 | 56% | 54% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 76-80
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 79-77
|
Andre Pallante
· 3.91 · 6.1
Jared Jones
· 3.59 · 11.0
|
Final
0–2
|
+147 / -161 | 7 | 61% | 58% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Washington Nationals 73-84
@ Detroit Tigers 74-83
|
Jackson Kent
· 6.40 · 7.5
Keider Montero
· 3.69 · 5.7
|
Final
3–1
|
+135 / -147 | 8 | 58% | 59% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:45 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 81-75
@ Boston Red Sox 84-72
|
Foster Griffin
· 3.42 · 8.1
Jake Bennett
· 3.58 · 7.2
|
Final
3–2
|
+108 / -117 | 6 | 53% | 58% | model leans home |
| 7:05 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 95-60
@ New York Yankees 89-66
|
Drew Rasmussen
· 2.67 · 9.1
Max Fried
· 2.80 · 8.3
|
Final
6–1
|
+112 / -122 | 6 | 54% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:15 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 72-84
@ Atlanta Braves 92-64
|
Andrew Abbott
· 4.69 · 7.2
JR Ritchie
· 5.73 · 8.3
|
Final
4–0
|
+207 / -230 | 9.5 | 69% | 60% | model leans away |
| 7:40 PM |
Chicago White Sox 80-76
@ Kansas City Royals 67-89
|
Anthony Kay
· 4.53 · 7.6
Daniel Lynch IV
· 6.53 · 4.7
|
Final
14–11
|
-111 / +102 | 8 | 48% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 76-80
@ Chicago Cubs 87-69
|
Janson Junk
· 4.21 · 6.6
Kevin Gausman
· 4.51 · 9.3
|
Final/12
8–2
|
+177 / -194 | 6.5 | 65% | 66% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:05 PM |
New York Mets 71-85
@ Texas Rangers 78-78
|
Sean Manaea
· 5.05 · 8.1
MacKenzie Gore
· 4.74 · 9.2
|
Final
6–3
|
+111 / -120 | 8 | 54% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:40 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 82-74
@ Colorado Rockies 57-99
|
Michael Soroka
· 3.29 · 8.8
Mason Adams
· 4.03 · 9.6
|
Final
7–2
|
-178 / +163 | 11 | 37% | 41% | model leans home |
| 9:40 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 60-96
@ Athletics 61-95
|
Yusei Kikuchi
· 4.92 · 8.9
Brady Basso
· 7.56 · 6.5
|
Final
7–9
|
-105 / -103 | 9.5 | 50% | 49% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:40 PM |
Houston Astros 77-79
@ Seattle Mariners 73-83
|
Cristian Javier
· 5.80 · 7.6
Logan Gilbert
· 3.73 · 9.9
|
Final
7–0
|
+117 / -127 | 7 | 55% | 56% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:45 PM |
Minnesota Twins 73-84
@ San Francisco Giants 65-92
|
Zebby Matthews
· 4.90 · 8.0
Anthony Molina
· 4.38 · 10.2
|
Final
3–2
|
-135 / +125 | 7 | 43% | 54% | model leans home |
| 10:10 PM |
San Diego Padres 87-69
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 96-60
|
Robbie Ray
· 3.73 · 7.5
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
· 2.53 · 8.9
|
Final
0–7
|
+116 / -126 | 8.5 | 55% | 60% | model leans home |