MLB Slate
2026-09-23 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
16
First pitch
1:10 PM
Final
16
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
16 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:10 PM |
Washington Nationals 74-84
@ Detroit Tigers 74-84
|
Cade Cavalli
· 3.02 · 10.6
Framber Valdez
· 4.20 · 7.0
|
Final
4–2
|
— | 7.5 | — | 54% | — |
| 1:35 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 77-80
@ Baltimore Orioles 76-81
|
Max Scherzer
· 5.74 · 7.2
Chris Bassitt
· 4.71 · 6.3
|
Final
2–4
|
— | 7.5 | — | 51% | — |
| 3:45 PM |
Minnesota Twins 74-84
@ San Francisco Giants 65-93
|
Taj Bradley
· 3.73 · 10.3
Anthony Molina
· 4.38 · 10.2
|
Final
4–2
|
-146 / +135 | 8 | 42% | 52% | model leans home |
| 6:35 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 77-80
@ Baltimore Orioles 76-81
|
Dylan Cease
· 2.48 · 12.8
TBD
|
Final
2–4
|
+106 / -115 | 7.5 | 52% | 48% | model leans away |
| 6:40 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 98-59
@ Philadelphia Phillies 87-70
|
Logan Henderson
· 2.44 · 9.9
Aaron Nola
· 4.67 · 9.1
|
Final
4–1
|
-122 / +112 | 7 | 46% | 44% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 76-81
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 80-77
|
Matthew Liberatore
· 5.23 · 8.9
Lake Bachar
· 2.16 · 10.1
|
Final
5–1
|
+123 / -133 | 7 | 56% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:00 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 82-75
@ Boston Red Sox 84-73
|
Parker Messick
· 2.56 · 9.3
Sonny Gray
· 2.82 · 7.8
|
Final
0–1
|
+119 / -129 | 6.5 | 55% | 57% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:05 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 96-61
@ New York Yankees 90-67
|
Ian Seymour
· 4.44 · 11.8
Gerrit Cole
· 3.61 · 9.3
|
Final
2–9
|
+120 / -130 | 6.5 | 56% | 54% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:15 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 73-84
@ Atlanta Braves 92-65
|
Brady Singer
· 5.66 · 7.2
Chris Sale
· 2.16 · 11.1
|
Final/10
2–3
|
+233 / -260 | 7.5 | 71% | 73% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:40 PM |
Chicago White Sox 81-76
@ Kansas City Royals 67-90
|
Erick Fedde
· 3.86 · 6.7
Seth Lugo
· 5.17 · 7.0
|
Final
4–5
|
-114 / +105 | 8.5 | 48% | 51% | model leans home |
| 7:40 PM |
Miami Marlins 77-80
@ Chicago Cubs 87-70
|
Ryan Gusto
· 4.33 · 7.4
Shota Imanaga
· 3.83 · 8.9
|
Final
3–2
|
+156 / -170 | 6.5 | 62% | 64% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:05 PM |
New York Mets 72-85
@ Texas Rangers 78-79
|
Nolan McLean
· 2.99 · 9.6
Cody Bradford
· 5.24 · 3.4
|
Final
7–2
|
— | 8 | — | 49% | — |
| 8:40 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 83-74
@ Colorado Rockies 57-100
|
Michael Soroka
· 3.29 · 8.8
Mason Adams
· 4.03 · 9.6
|
Final
5–3
|
— | 11 | — | 41% | — |
| 9:40 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 60-97
@ Athletics 62-95
|
Walbert Urena
· 3.31 · 8.8
Jeffrey Springs
· 5.97 · 6.9
|
Final
3–7
|
— | 9 | — | 49% | — |
| 10:00 PM |
Houston Astros 78-79
@ Seattle Mariners 73-84
|
Ethan Pecko
· 5.85 · 5.8
George Kirby
· 4.33 · 7.6
|
Final/10
5–6
|
— | 7.5 | — | 54% | — |
| 10:10 PM |
San Diego Padres 87-70
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 97-60
|
Michael King
· 3.21 · 7.7
Blake Snell
· 1.90 · 11.6
|
Final
5–1
|
— | 8 | — | 58% | — |