MLB Slate
2026-09-24 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
12
First pitch
12:35 PM
Final
12
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
12 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:35 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 77-81
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 80-78
|
Kyle Leahy
· 3.66 · 8.5
Paul Skenes
· 3.77 · 10.3
|
Final
1–2
|
+140 / -153 | 7 | 59% | 58% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:10 PM |
Chicago White Sox 81-77
@ Kansas City Royals 68-90
|
David Sandlin
· 4.55 · 8.5
Randy Dobnak
· 3.92 · 6.6
|
Final
9–1
|
-134 / +124 | 8.5 | 44% | 50% | model leans home |
| 2:20 PM |
Miami Marlins 78-80
@ Chicago Cubs 87-71
|
Tyler Phillips
· 3.90 · 6.8
Clay Holmes
· 3.29 · 6.9
|
Final
1–2
|
+184 / -203 | 7 | 66% | 59% | model leans away |
| 2:35 PM |
New York Mets 73-85
@ Texas Rangers 78-80
|
Nolan McLean
· 2.99 · 9.6
Kumar Rocker
· 4.49 · 8.2
|
Final
1–3
|
+117 / -127 | 8.5 | 55% | 47% | model leans away |
| 3:10 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 84-74
@ Colorado Rockies 57-101
|
Merrill Kelly
· 4.94 · 6.3
Tanner Gordon
· 7.97 · 6.5
|
Final
12–8
|
-186 / +170 | 10 | 36% | 39% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:05 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 99-59
@ Philadelphia Phillies 87-71
|
Kyle Harrison
· 4.11 · 10.6
Tim Mayza
· 3.72 · 9.3
|
Final
5–1
|
+121 / -131 | 8 | 56% | 46% | model leans away |
| 6:45 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 82-76
@ Boston Red Sox 85-73
|
Joey Cantillo
· 4.01 · 9.6
Ranger Suarez
· 3.10 · 8.5
|
Final
1–0
|
+111 / -120 | 6.5 | 54% | 60% | model leans home |
| 7:05 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 96-62
@ New York Yankees 91-67
|
Freddy Peralta
· 4.14 · 8.3
Cam Schlittler
· 1.95 · 11.1
|
Final
4–6
|
+128 / -139 | 6 | 57% | 58% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:15 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 73-85
@ Atlanta Braves 93-65
|
Chase Burns
· 2.86 · 10.8
Tyler Mahle
· 3.99 · 8.3
|
Final
7–6
|
+205 / -227 | 8.5 | 68% | 60% | model leans away |
| 9:40 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 60-98
@ Seattle Mariners 74-84
|
Grayson Rodriguez
· 6.28 · 7.8
Bryan Woo
· 4.17 · 9.2
|
Final
6–4
|
+169 / -185 | 7 | 64% | 61% | model leans away |
| 9:40 PM |
Houston Astros 78-80
@ Athletics 63-95
|
Peter Lambert
· 3.82 · 8.9
TBD
|
Final
7–5
|
-165 / +152 | 10.5 | 39% | 45% | model leans home |
| 10:10 PM |
San Diego Padres 88-70
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 97-61
|
Nick Pivetta
· 2.86 · 10.9
Tyler Glasnow
· 3.53 · 11.9
|
Final
4–2
|
+154 / -168 | 8 | 62% | 55% | model leans away |