MLB Slate
2026-09-25 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
17
First pitch
1:05 PM
Final
17
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
17 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM |
Chicago Cubs 88-71
@ Boston Red Sox 85-74
|
David Peterson
· 5.17 · 8.7
Alec Gamboa
· 5.79 · 5.8
|
Final
3–4
|
-120 / +111 | 6.5 | 46% | 52% | model leans home |
| 4:05 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 78-81
@ New York Yankees 92-67
|
Brandon Young
· 3.49 · 7.6
Carlos Rodon
· 2.62 · 9.7
|
Final
10–2
|
+108 / -117 | 6.5 | 53% | 62% | model leans home |
| 5:30 PM |
Chicago Cubs 88-71
@ Boston Red Sox 85-74
|
Matthew Boyd
· 3.91 · 6.8
Jake Bennett
· 3.58 · 7.2
|
Final
0–2
|
-118 / +109 | 6.5 | 47% | 51% | model leans home |
| 6:40 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 81-78
@ Detroit Tigers 74-85
|
Bubba Chandler
· 4.72 · 8.1
Jackson Jobe
· 3.91 · 10.0
|
Final
7–8
|
+103 / -112 | 8 | 52% | 55% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 6:40 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 96-63
@ Philadelphia Phillies 87-72
|
Griffin Jax
· 3.32 · 9.3
Andrew Painter
· 5.51 · 8.1
|
Final
2–0
|
+152 / -165 | 6.5 | 61% | 49% | model leans away |
| 6:45 PM |
New York Mets 73-86
@ Washington Nationals 75-84
|
Christian Scott
· 3.77 · 10.9
Andrew Alvarez
· 3.35 · 9.0
|
Final
6–7
|
-104 / -104 | 8 | 50% | 49% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:07 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 74-85
@ Toronto Blue Jays 77-82
|
Nick Lodolo
· 4.97 · 6.9
Jose Soriano
· 3.76 · 9.2
|
Final
5–6
|
+139 / -152 | 7.5 | 59% | 56% | model leans away |
| 7:10 PM |
Atlanta Braves 93-66
@ Miami Marlins 78-81
|
Grant Holmes
· 3.73 · 6.9
Eury Perez
· 4.05 · 9.3
|
Final
0–3
|
-111 / +103 | 8 | 48% | 51% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:30 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 78-81
@ New York Yankees 92-67
|
Trevor Rogers
· 4.07 · 8.1
Will Warren
· 4.06 · 9.1
|
Final
3–6
|
-105 / -103 | 6.5 | 50% | 57% | model leans home |
| 7:40 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 83-76
@ Kansas City Royals 68-91
|
Tanner Bibee
· 4.34 · 6.8
Noah Cameron
· 4.44 · 7.8
|
Final
12–9
|
-135 / +125 | 7 | 43% | 48% | model leans home |
| 7:40 PM |
Colorado Rockies 57-102
@ Chicago White Sox 82-77
|
Jose Quintana
· 5.44 · 4.7
Sean Burke
· 3.72 · 9.8
|
Final
1–6
|
+209 / -232 | 8 | 69% | 69% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 7:40 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 77-82
@ Milwaukee Brewers 100-59
|
Michael McGreevy
· 3.95 · 6.1
Robert Gasser
· 4.11 · 8.7
|
Final
4–8
|
+166 / -181 | 7.5 | 63% | 65% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 8:10 PM |
Texas Rangers 79-80
@ Minnesota Twins 75-84
|
Cal Quantrill
· 2.47 · 7.2
Connor Prielipp
· 5.09 · 9.1
|
Final
2–10
|
-113 / +104 | 7 | 48% | 51% | model leans home |
| 9:40 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 85-74
@ San Diego Padres 89-70
|
Zac Gallen
· 6.22 · 5.5
Casey Mize
· 3.87 · 7.7
|
Final
11–4
|
+107 / -115 | 7.5 | 53% | 56% | model leans home |
| 9:40 PM |
Houston Astros 79-80
@ Athletics 63-96
|
Hayden Wesneski
· 3.27 · 6.9
Jacob Lopez
· 5.50 · 7.8
|
Final
5–6
|
-188 / +171 | 9.5 | 36% | 45% | model leans home |
| 10:10 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 61-98
@ Seattle Mariners 74-85
|
Reid Detmers
· 3.28 · 10.2
Bryce Miller
· 4.06 · 9.1
|
Final
7–5
|
+100 / -109 | 6.5 | 51% | 55% | model leans home |
| 10:15 PM |
Los Angeles Dodgers 97-62
@ San Francisco Giants 65-94
|
Tyler Glasnow
· 3.53 · 11.9
Yunior Marte
· 5.65 · 5.7
|
Final
2–0
|
-315 / +277 | 7.5 | 25% | 39% | model leans home |