Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quarterbacks, 2025
Dropback-weighted season totals. Click a column to sort, a name for the game log. Adj EPA/dropback is the number to compare players on; schedule shows how much of the gap from raw is opponents.
| Quarterback | Team | Games | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | GB | 16 | 508 | +0.253 | +0.253 | -0.000 | +128.5 | 6 / 2 | -32.5 | 22 | -36.8 | +4.56 | +5.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 20 | 741 | +0.236 | +0.234 | +0.002 | +174.8 | 9 / 2 | -58.5 | 29 | -55.8 | +5.77 | +0.7 |
| Drake Maye | NE | 21 | 682 | +0.186 | +0.184 | +0.002 | +126.9 | 12 / 6 | -82.0 | 68 | -114.1 | +2.46 | +7.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 614 | +0.181 | +0.174 | +0.007 | +111.1 | 8 / 3 | -45.9 | 38 | -74.0 | +2.13 | +1.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 17 | 631 | +0.179 | +0.179 | +0.000 | +112.9 | 10 / 1 | -47.7 | 31 | -47.6 | +4.41 | +2.1 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 11 | 359 | +0.173 | +0.157 | +0.016 | +62.1 | 13 / 3 | -74.0 | 14 | -30.4 | +2.24 | +5.6 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | 13 | 409 | +0.165 | +0.158 | +0.007 | +67.4 | 8 / 3 | -50.5 | 22 | -43.3 | +1.35 | +2.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 18 | 584 | +0.162 | +0.148 | +0.015 | +94.7 | 12 / 2 | -52.6 | 44 | -70.6 | +2.06 | +4.0 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 20 | 599 | +0.160 | +0.164 | -0.005 | +95.8 | 14 / 5 | -99.1 | 33 | -67.8 | +1.66 | +4.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 14 | 537 | +0.145 | +0.127 | +0.018 | +78.1 | 11 / 0 | -47.7 | 34 | -38.9 | +1.00 | +0.2 |
| Mac Jones | SF | 9 | 308 | +0.140 | +0.137 | +0.002 | +43.0 | 6 / 2 | -32.4 | 16 | -30.1 | +1.46 | +3.4 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 18 | 684 | +0.089 | +0.097 | -0.008 | +61.1 | 12 / 1 | -47.0 | 22 | -32.8 | +3.16 | -1.4 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | 19 | 686 | +0.089 | +0.082 | +0.007 | +60.7 | 12 / 1 | -49.3 | 25 | -43.6 | +2.57 | -3.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 18 | 631 | +0.062 | +0.062 | +0.000 | +39.2 | 14 / 2 | -72.5 | 42 | -64.2 | +0.90 | -2.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 13 | 338 | +0.062 | +0.055 | +0.007 | +20.9 | 7 / 3 | -49.0 | 36 | -65.4 | +1.11 | +1.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 17 | 522 | +0.054 | +0.060 | -0.006 | +28.4 | 6 / 1 | -39.1 | 33 | -51.7 | -0.74 | +2.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 16 | 531 | +0.048 | +0.047 | +0.002 | +25.7 | 13 / 2 | -62.6 | 29 | -54.3 | -0.26 | -1.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 14 | 415 | +0.026 | +0.034 | -0.008 | +10.7 | 15 / 1 | -56.5 | 30 | -47.3 | +0.04 | +2.2 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | 12 | 375 | +0.023 | +0.010 | +0.012 | +8.5 | 5 / 1 | -22.9 | 35 | -50.5 | -0.94 | -0.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 17 | 563 | +0.020 | +0.003 | +0.017 | +11.4 | 8 / 2 | -49.7 | 33 | -63.1 | -0.38 | -0.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 17 | 603 | +0.008 | +0.005 | +0.003 | +4.8 | 13 / 2 | -77.9 | 60 | -95.2 | -0.18 | +1.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | 17 | 584 | +0.008 | +0.001 | +0.006 | +4.5 | 11 / 3 | -60.5 | 36 | -60.8 | -0.19 | -2.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 13 | 530 | -0.010 | -0.007 | -0.003 | -5.4 | 8 / 4 | -60.3 | 43 | -86.5 | -0.82 | +1.7 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | 11 | 356 | -0.041 | +0.007 | -0.048 | -14.6 | 6 / 1 | -33.2 | 31 | -60.3 | +0.63 | +1.8 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 17 | 548 | -0.074 | -0.054 | -0.019 | -40.3 | 12 / 2 | -70.6 | 29 | -59.6 | -0.13 | +0.6 |
| Joe Flacco | CIN | 12 | 432 | -0.108 | -0.095 | -0.013 | -46.6 | 10 / 3 | -68.4 | 18 | -42.9 | -1.21 | -2.8 |
| Geno Smith | LV | 15 | 503 | -0.136 | -0.146 | +0.010 | -68.4 | 17 / 1 | -93.3 | 55 | -101.7 | -1.98 | +0.9 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | 17 | 592 | -0.166 | -0.185 | +0.019 | -98.3 | 7 / 7 | -66.9 | 55 | -120.3 | -2.05 | -2.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.