Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quarterbacks, 2022
Dropback-weighted season totals. Click a column to sort, a name for the game log. Adj EPA/dropback is the number to compare players on; schedule shows how much of the gap from raw is opponents.
| Quarterback | Team | Games | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 20 | 780 | +0.291 | +0.285 | +0.005 | +226.6 | 12 / 1 | -55.1 | 29 | -48.9 | +5.53 | +4.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 11 | 326 | +0.236 | +0.232 | +0.004 | +76.9 | 4 / 1 | -18.8 | 18 | -32.5 | +0.95 | -1.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 13 | 421 | +0.235 | +0.228 | +0.007 | +98.8 | 8 / 1 | -40.6 | 21 | -40.7 | +2.14 | +1.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 17 | 610 | +0.174 | +0.168 | +0.006 | +106.1 | 7 / 3 | -52.2 | 23 | -50.9 | +2.60 | -1.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 19 | 770 | +0.144 | +0.136 | +0.009 | +111.2 | 14 / 3 | -76.3 | 51 | -89.6 | +2.65 | +3.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 18 | 590 | +0.144 | +0.152 | -0.008 | +84.9 | 6 / 2 | -41.2 | 42 | -66.5 | +1.56 | +2.9 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 18 | 689 | +0.130 | +0.128 | +0.001 | +89.2 | 17 / 4 | -98.2 | 41 | -72.2 | +1.61 | +1.2 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 14 | 486 | +0.119 | +0.123 | -0.004 | +57.6 | 17 / 0 | -82.9 | 22 | -34.4 | +0.83 | +0.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 19 | 704 | +0.108 | +0.111 | -0.003 | +76.0 | 13 / 5 | -71.4 | 31 | -61.3 | +1.65 | +0.6 |
| Tom Brady | TB | 18 | 828 | +0.083 | +0.069 | +0.013 | +68.7 | 10 / 2 | -56.7 | 24 | -45.1 | +1.79 | -0.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 12 | 358 | +0.059 | +0.057 | +0.001 | +21.1 | 6 / 1 | -34.4 | 33 | -56.7 | +0.88 | +0.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | CLE | 12 | 391 | +0.056 | +0.048 | +0.008 | +21.8 | 6 / 3 | -28.2 | 24 | -47.9 | +0.00 | +3.1 |
| Derek Carr | LV | 15 | 532 | +0.055 | +0.050 | +0.005 | +29.0 | 14 / 0 | -61.6 | 27 | -42.5 | +0.21 | -2.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 18 | 729 | +0.047 | +0.045 | +0.002 | +34.4 | 14 / 3 | -87.2 | 46 | -85.5 | +3.07 | +1.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 12 | 352 | +0.046 | +0.030 | +0.016 | +16.4 | 7 / 1 | -33.6 | 26 | -35.5 | +0.13 | -0.6 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | 18 | 658 | +0.041 | +0.045 | -0.004 | +27.1 | 12 / 3 | -75.8 | 49 | -86.5 | +0.19 | +5.8 |
| Andy Dalton | NO | 14 | 404 | +0.039 | +0.047 | -0.008 | +15.8 | 9 / 1 | -49.6 | 25 | -48.4 | -0.06 | +0.9 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | 18 | 584 | +0.035 | +0.035 | -0.001 | +20.2 | 6 / 2 | -33.4 | 52 | -72.6 | +0.86 | +1.4 |
| Marcus Mariota | ATL | 13 | 326 | +0.030 | +0.024 | +0.006 | +9.8 | 9 / 1 | -36.2 | 28 | -47.8 | -0.11 | -0.4 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 18 | 782 | +0.024 | +0.041 | -0.017 | +18.6 | 10 / 3 | -66.5 | 41 | -72.6 | +0.88 | +0.8 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | 13 | 417 | -0.011 | -0.021 | +0.010 | -4.7 | 9 / 1 | -35.3 | 27 | -43.7 | +0.47 | +0.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 17 | 575 | -0.017 | -0.009 | -0.007 | -9.7 | 12 / 2 | -64.5 | 32 | -65.7 | -0.70 | +0.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 9 | 332 | -0.047 | -0.072 | +0.025 | -15.7 | 8 / 3 | -63.1 | 29 | -55.7 | -0.41 | -0.2 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | 11 | 418 | -0.048 | -0.041 | -0.007 | -20.1 | 7 / 0 | -25.7 | 25 | -41.2 | -0.26 | -0.8 |
| Matt Ryan | IND | 12 | 502 | -0.066 | -0.056 | -0.010 | -33.3 | 13 / 3 | -80.6 | 38 | -71.0 | +0.80 | -0.1 |
| Mac Jones | NE | 14 | 478 | -0.067 | -0.062 | -0.004 | -31.8 | 11 / 1 | -50.2 | 34 | -60.7 | -0.26 | -0.2 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | 15 | 538 | -0.125 | -0.106 | -0.019 | -67.0 | 11 / 2 | -55.3 | 55 | -95.0 | -2.48 | -1.3 |
| Carson Wentz | WAS | 8 | 309 | -0.136 | -0.129 | -0.007 | -42.0 | 9 / 1 | -36.4 | 26 | -46.6 | -1.10 | -3.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | LA | 12 | 371 | -0.141 | -0.138 | -0.003 | -52.3 | 8 / 1 | -34.9 | 36 | -62.2 | -1.39 | -7.3 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | 15 | 511 | -0.160 | -0.145 | -0.015 | -82.0 | 15 / 2 | -83.4 | 31 | -62.2 | -1.56 | -3.8 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | 15 | 377 | -0.178 | -0.179 | +0.001 | -67.1 | 11 / 2 | -50.2 | 55 | -87.3 | -3.09 | -3.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.