Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quarterbacks, 2026
Dropback-weighted season totals. Click a column to sort, a name for the game log. Adj EPA/dropback is the number to compare players on; schedule shows how much of the gap from raw is opponents.
| Quarterback | Team | Games | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | 1 | 32 | +0.554 | +0.454 | +0.099 | +17.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.65 | +8.1 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | 1 | 31 | +0.552 | +0.599 | -0.047 | +17.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.35 | +16.6 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 1 | 39 | +0.394 | +0.398 | -0.004 | +15.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.14 | +6.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 1 | 26 | +0.370 | +0.376 | -0.006 | +9.6 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 2 | -7.4 | +0.18 | +4.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 1 | 40 | +0.164 | +0.146 | +0.018 | +6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.38 | -2.9 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 1 | 34 | +0.151 | +0.142 | +0.009 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.32 | +0.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 1 | 41 | +0.086 | +0.036 | +0.050 | +3.5 | 0 / 2 | -7.0 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.04 | +3.2 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | 1 | 61 | -0.004 | -0.016 | +0.012 | -0.3 | 2 / 1 | -14.8 | 5 | -10.5 | -0.30 | -1.2 |
| Drake Maye | NE | 1 | 36 | -0.053 | -0.128 | +0.075 | -1.9 | 3 / 0 | -8.5 | 3 | -2.0 | -0.38 | +6.0 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 1 | 36 | -0.101 | -0.073 | -0.028 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -7.5 | 1 | -2.8 | +0.01 | +6.4 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | 1 | 27 | -0.134 | -0.206 | +0.072 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 5 | -8.6 | -0.22 | +10.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 1 | 42 | -0.163 | -0.187 | +0.023 | -6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.34 | +1.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | 1 | 32 | -0.240 | -0.169 | -0.071 | -7.7 | 0 / 2 | -11.8 | 4 | -15.4 | -0.38 | +14.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 1 | 25 | -0.264 | -0.224 | -0.040 | -6.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.12 | -4.7 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | 1 | 33 | -0.316 | -0.291 | -0.025 | -10.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.23 | -5.1 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | 1 | 35 | -0.335 | -0.210 | -0.125 | -11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.24 | +0.4 |
| Cooper Rush | ATL | 1 | 26 | -0.616 | -0.606 | -0.009 | -16.0 | 2 / 0 | -13.0 | 4 | -7.0 | -0.59 | -10.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.