Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN W | 35–13 | +19.0fav 3.0 | +0.33 → +0.34 | -0.09 → -0.13 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 9% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BAL L | 13–35 | -19.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.13 | +0.33 → +0.32 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 91% | 1 / 0 |
| TB W | 43–13 | +33.0dog 3.0 | +0.21 → +0.19 | -0.27 → -0.28 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ CAR L | 13–43 | -33.0fav 3.0 | -0.27 → -0.25 | +0.21 → +0.25 | -0.50 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 3 / 0 |
| NYG W | 27–21 | +16.0dog 10.0 | +0.24 → +0.31 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.39 | 99%raw 99% | 37% – 89% | 0 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 21–27 | -16.0fav 10.0 | -0.08 → -0.12 | +0.24 → +0.26 | -0.37 | 2%raw 1% | 11% – 63% | 0 / 0 |
| KC L | 3–20 | -14.0dog 3.0 | -0.10 → -0.01 | +0.16 → +0.16 | -0.17 | 13%raw 3% | 0% – 49% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 20–3 | +14.0fav 3.0 | +0.16 → +0.20 | -0.10 → -0.15 | +0.35 | 98%raw 97% | 51% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| DAL W | 38–21 | +12.5fav 4.5 | +0.31 → +0.31 | -0.01 → +0.02 | +0.30 | 96%raw 99% | 28% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ PHI L | 21–38 | -12.5dog 4.5 | -0.01 → -0.12 | +0.31 → +0.25 | -0.37 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 72% | 1 / 0 |
| DEN W | 30–16 | +9.5fav 4.5 | +0.20 → +0.15 | -0.11 → -0.10 | +0.24 | 94%raw 99% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ ARI L | 16–30 | -9.5dog 4.5 | -0.11 → -0.07 | +0.20 → +0.22 | -0.29 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 64% | 0 / 0 |
| LA W | 35–21 | +10.5fav 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.16 | -0.14 → -0.06 | +0.22 | 92%raw 99% | 37% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LV L | 21–35 | -10.5dog 3.5 | -0.14 → -0.10 | +0.17 → +0.12 | -0.22 | 8%raw 1% | 0% – 63% | 0 / 2 |
| GB L | 17–20 | +0.5dog 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.00 | -0.06 → -0.14 | +0.14 | 82%raw 80% | 10% – 65% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DET W | 20–17 | -0.5fav 3.5 | -0.06 → -0.05 | +0.04 → -0.00 | -0.05 | 35%raw 20% | 35% – 90% | 2 / 1 |
| SF L | 20–29 | -11.5fav 2.5 | +0.01 → +0.02 | +0.05 → +0.08 | -0.06 | 35%raw 37% | 0% – 75% | 4 / 0 |
| @ ATL W | 29–20 | +11.5dog 2.5 | +0.05 → +0.05 | +0.01 → -0.07 | +0.11 | 78%raw 63% | 25% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| NE L | 24–30 | -3.0dog 3.0 | +0.18 → +0.20 | +0.20 → +0.16 | +0.03 | 59%raw 46% | 1% – 48% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 30–24 | +3.0fav 3.0 | +0.20 → +0.23 | +0.18 → +0.14 | +0.09 | 73%raw 54% | 52% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| CLE W | 27–24 | +1.5fav 1.5 | +0.15 → +0.10 | -0.06 → +0.04 | +0.05 | 65%raw 94% | 14% – 88% | 2 / 2 |
| @ TEN L | 24–27 | -1.5dog 1.5 | -0.06 → -0.02 | +0.15 → +0.24 | -0.26 | 5%raw 6% | 12% – 86% | 2 / 2 |
| IND L | 10–16 | +0.5dog 6.5 | -0.11 → -0.01 | -0.08 → -0.00 | -0.01 | 47%raw 39% | 1% – 72% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 16–10 | -0.5fav 6.5 | -0.08 → -0.09 | -0.11 → -0.12 | +0.03 | 58%raw 61% | 28% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| PIT W | 16–10 | +3.0fav 3.0 | +0.12 → +0.12 | +0.06 → +0.11 | +0.01 | 54%raw 70% | 38% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 10–16 | -3.0dog 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.07 | +0.12 → +0.15 | -0.08 | 30%raw 30% | 1% – 62% | 1 / 0 |
| MIA W | 28–25 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.28 → +0.25 | +0.26 → +0.32 | -0.07 | 31%raw 59% | 43% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 25–28 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.26 → +0.19 | +0.28 → +0.32 | -0.13 | 19%raw 41% | 4% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 31 | +0.581 | +0.587 | -0.006 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | +0.40 | +15.5 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | KC | 28 | +0.487 | +0.434 | +0.053 | +13.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | +4.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | 27 | +0.483 | +0.446 | +0.038 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.44 | +0.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CAR | 11 | +0.452 | +0.481 | -0.029 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | +1.6 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | NE | 36 | +0.428 | +0.377 | +0.051 | +15.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.42 | +6.7 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | NYJ | 23 | +0.399 | +0.496 | -0.097 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.38 | -4.5 |
| Drake Maye | NE | CHI | 32 | +0.389 | +0.370 | +0.019 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -4.5 | +0.18 | +15.3 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | PIT | 40 | +0.283 | +0.264 | +0.019 | +11.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.30 | +3.3 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 33 | +0.282 | +0.279 | +0.003 | +9.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.38 | -1.0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | NYG | HOU | 30 | +0.264 | +0.179 | +0.085 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.13 | +8.0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | SF | 33 | +0.264 | +0.279 | -0.015 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.34 | +5.5 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | MIA | 33 | +0.260 | +0.370 | -0.110 | +8.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.22 | +11.2 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | CLE | 32 | +0.255 | +0.183 | +0.072 | +8.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.10 | +1.6 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DET | 46 | +0.129 | +0.151 | -0.021 | +5.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.11 | -0.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | LV | 30 | +0.125 | +0.174 | -0.049 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.18 | +7.4 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | ATL | 41 | +0.078 | +0.056 | +0.022 | +3.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 2 | -5.3 | +0.10 | +0.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | NO | 33 | +0.054 | +0.063 | -0.008 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.10 | -2.9 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | ARI | 30 | +0.053 | +0.151 | -0.098 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.04 | -3.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | TEN | 37 | +0.050 | +0.124 | -0.075 | +1.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.37 | +6.9 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | CIN | 38 | +0.045 | +0.091 | -0.046 | +1.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 4 | -7.3 | +0.13 | -1.8 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | IND | 27 | -0.004 | -0.003 | -0.001 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.09 | -7.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | NYG | 30 | -0.022 | -0.013 | -0.009 | -0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.04 | -9.1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | DEN | 51 | -0.063 | -0.153 | +0.090 | -3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | -0.17 | -4.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | SEA | 34 | -0.077 | -0.178 | +0.100 | -2.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.23 | -9.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | LA | 48 | -0.134 | -0.153 | +0.019 | -6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | -0.20 | -7.9 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | MIN | 26 | -0.167 | -0.299 | +0.131 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 4 | -6.6 | -0.20 | -10.1 |
| Tanner McKee | PHI | DAL | 37 | -0.239 | -0.091 | -0.148 | -8.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.10 | -2.2 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | TB | 32 | -0.634 | -0.635 | +0.001 | -20.3 | 2 / 1 | -17.2 | 5 | -13.6 | -0.13 | -15.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.