Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quarterbacks, 2021
Dropback-weighted season totals. Click a column to sort, a name for the game log. Adj EPA/dropback is the number to compare players on; schedule shows how much of the gap from raw is opponents.
| Quarterback | Team | Games | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | BAL | 3 | 88 | +0.316 | +0.311 | +0.005 | +27.8 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.28 | +0.9 |
| Gardner Minshew | PHI | 3 | 66 | +0.242 | +0.241 | +0.001 | +15.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 5 | -5.4 | +0.43 | +3.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 20 | 818 | +0.226 | +0.211 | +0.015 | +184.7 | 16 / 2 | -82.0 | 37 | -60.9 | +4.76 | +3.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 17 | 592 | +0.226 | +0.214 | +0.012 | +133.6 | 4 / 0 | -20.7 | 35 | -53.8 | +4.17 | +5.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 21 | 780 | +0.208 | +0.213 | -0.005 | +162.0 | 20 / 2 | -94.3 | 37 | -70.7 | +4.94 | +1.2 |
| Tom Brady | TB | 19 | 838 | +0.193 | +0.166 | +0.026 | +161.3 | 13 / 3 | -67.9 | 29 | -54.2 | +3.58 | +1.2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | 18 | 546 | +0.175 | +0.168 | +0.007 | +95.8 | 15 / 2 | -75.8 | 33 | -57.3 | +3.46 | +0.8 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | 4 | 50 | +0.171 | +0.161 | +0.010 | +8.5 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 3 | -9.0 | +0.44 | -3.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 17 | 709 | +0.166 | +0.171 | -0.005 | +117.7 | 15 / 1 | -79.5 | 31 | -53.2 | +4.22 | -0.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 19 | 740 | +0.162 | +0.164 | -0.002 | +119.7 | 15 / 1 | -68.0 | 28 | -38.5 | +1.74 | +2.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 17 | 678 | +0.149 | +0.142 | +0.007 | +101.0 | 11 / 3 | -61.9 | 35 | -60.4 | +2.85 | +1.5 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | 7 | 172 | +0.135 | +0.127 | +0.008 | +23.2 | 3 / 1 | -15.3 | 11 | -22.4 | +0.30 | -3.3 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 20 | 732 | +0.124 | +0.137 | -0.014 | +90.6 | 16 / 2 | -95.2 | 70 | -122.3 | +4.40 | +5.8 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | 4 | 105 | +0.120 | +0.136 | -0.016 | +12.6 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 6 | -12.4 | +0.44 | +3.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 16 | 587 | +0.116 | +0.117 | -0.001 | +67.8 | 7 / 2 | -44.6 | 28 | -58.1 | +3.06 | +1.4 |
| Trey Lance | SF | 4 | 75 | +0.115 | +0.142 | -0.028 | +8.6 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 4 | -8.7 | +0.11 | -4.5 |
| Mac Jones | NE | 18 | 590 | +0.102 | +0.095 | +0.007 | +60.4 | 15 / 2 | -86.0 | 31 | -61.7 | +0.64 | +2.6 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | 14 | 460 | +0.098 | +0.124 | -0.026 | +45.0 | 7 / 0 | -26.7 | 31 | -45.8 | +0.64 | +3.9 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | 15 | 550 | +0.084 | +0.077 | +0.007 | +46.2 | 12 / 0 | -65.0 | 33 | -53.7 | +1.37 | +2.9 |
| Derek Carr | LV | 18 | 722 | +0.058 | +0.052 | +0.006 | +41.7 | 15 / 6 | -101.7 | 43 | -83.1 | +2.97 | +1.4 |
| Mike White | NYJ | 4 | 137 | +0.044 | +0.015 | +0.029 | +6.0 | 8 / 0 | -36.4 | 4 | -5.0 | +0.16 | -2.0 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 14 | 435 | +0.043 | +0.038 | +0.005 | +18.6 | 6 / 1 | -31.8 | 33 | -60.6 | -0.31 | +3.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 12 | 421 | +0.043 | +0.046 | -0.003 | +17.9 | 13 / 1 | -57.5 | 38 | -50.1 | +0.93 | +0.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 16 | 505 | +0.034 | +0.028 | +0.006 | +17.1 | 11 / 1 | -53.2 | 28 | -50.2 | -0.25 | -0.6 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 13 | 409 | +0.031 | +0.052 | -0.021 | +12.6 | 10 / 1 | -51.2 | 20 | -37.7 | +1.94 | +1.3 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 17 | 601 | +0.021 | +0.011 | +0.010 | +12.4 | 12 / 3 | -67.2 | 40 | -72.6 | +1.22 | +1.7 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 18 | 603 | +0.018 | +0.035 | -0.017 | +10.6 | 17 / 3 | -89.0 | 48 | -86.6 | +1.00 | +2.1 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | 4 | 107 | +0.008 | -0.016 | +0.024 | +0.8 | 1 / 1 | -7.9 | 13 | -23.7 | -0.48 | +6.5 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | 17 | 552 | +0.004 | +0.024 | -0.019 | +2.3 | 7 / 4 | -58.0 | 32 | -76.9 | -0.36 | -2.1 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | 11 | 383 | -0.010 | -0.029 | +0.019 | -3.9 | 7 / 2 | -37.3 | 22 | -45.6 | +0.68 | -0.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | 14 | 462 | -0.013 | -0.011 | -0.003 | -6.1 | 13 / 3 | -60.6 | 43 | -80.7 | -1.54 | -3.0 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 14 | 529 | -0.031 | -0.046 | +0.015 | -16.2 | 8 / 4 | -56.4 | 35 | -76.2 | +0.70 | +0.5 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | 16 | 532 | -0.043 | -0.055 | +0.012 | -23.1 | 15 / 2 | -72.7 | 38 | -66.9 | -0.05 | +0.1 |
| Trevor Siemian | NO | 6 | 201 | -0.061 | -0.052 | -0.009 | -12.3 | 3 / 1 | -26.3 | 9 | -20.6 | -0.43 | -4.7 |
| Taysom Hill | NO | 9 | 141 | -0.069 | -0.080 | +0.011 | -9.7 | 5 / 0 | -24.1 | 9 | -13.9 | +0.27 | -6.9 |
| Tim Boyle | DET | 3 | 95 | -0.075 | -0.040 | -0.034 | -7.1 | 6 / 0 | -24.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.44 | -3.5 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 17 | 692 | -0.078 | -0.070 | -0.007 | -53.7 | 10 / 5 | -69.9 | 40 | -77.4 | -0.29 | -2.2 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | 13 | 424 | -0.100 | -0.104 | +0.004 | -42.3 | 10 / 1 | -48.9 | 31 | -55.1 | -0.54 | -0.2 |
| Case Keenum | CLE | 4 | 77 | -0.101 | -0.107 | +0.006 | -7.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 5 | -15.8 | +0.04 | -0.4 |
| Drew Lock | DEN | 6 | 119 | -0.104 | -0.077 | -0.027 | -12.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.2 | 9 | -10.3 | -0.17 | -3.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | MIA | 8 | 244 | -0.106 | -0.095 | -0.010 | -25.8 | 4 / 3 | -29.5 | 19 | -39.6 | +0.10 | -2.3 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 17 | 636 | -0.110 | -0.093 | -0.016 | -69.7 | 17 / 5 | -92.9 | 32 | -65.3 | -1.77 | -4.7 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | 6 | 205 | -0.116 | -0.148 | +0.032 | -23.8 | 4 / 2 | -30.4 | 18 | -35.4 | -1.65 | -0.9 |
| Andy Dalton | CHI | 8 | 256 | -0.125 | -0.118 | -0.007 | -32.1 | 9 / 1 | -54.7 | 18 | -38.4 | +0.12 | -4.0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | HOU | 6 | 162 | -0.128 | -0.092 | -0.037 | -20.8 | 5 / 0 | -26.2 | 13 | -19.0 | -0.58 | -3.9 |
| Jordan Love | GB | 4 | 66 | -0.152 | -0.107 | -0.045 | -10.0 | 3 / 1 | -15.1 | 3 | -9.5 | -0.37 | -5.4 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | 12 | 442 | -0.160 | -0.174 | +0.013 | -70.8 | 13 / 2 | -77.1 | 35 | -60.6 | -0.77 | -5.1 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | 5 | 73 | -0.199 | -0.200 | +0.000 | -14.5 | 3 / 0 | -9.3 | 7 | -10.5 | -0.01 | -9.7 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | 12 | 304 | -0.207 | -0.213 | +0.006 | -62.9 | 10 / 4 | -59.7 | 36 | -75.8 | -0.88 | -2.8 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | 13 | 429 | -0.222 | -0.223 | +0.001 | -95.1 | 11 / 1 | -51.3 | 44 | -79.7 | -1.60 | -10.1 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 6 | 137 | -0.270 | -0.290 | +0.020 | -36.9 | 5 / 0 | -22.7 | 10 | -20.2 | -0.84 | -12.9 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | 2 | 57 | -0.286 | -0.151 | -0.134 | -16.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.45 | -6.2 |
| Mike Glennon | NYG | 6 | 174 | -0.444 | -0.466 | +0.023 | -77.2 | 10 / 3 | -64.8 | 9 | -25.3 | -1.08 | -8.2 |
| Jake Fromm | NYG | 3 | 66 | -0.536 | -0.533 | -0.003 | -35.4 | 3 / 1 | -22.0 | 6 | -13.9 | -0.72 | -18.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.