Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quarterbacks, 2024
Dropback-weighted season totals. Click a column to sort, a name for the game log. Adj EPA/dropback is the number to compare players on; schedule shows how much of the gap from raw is opponents.
| Quarterback | Team | Games | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 19 | 544 | +0.357 | +0.344 | +0.013 | +194.2 | 5 / 2 | -38.5 | 26 | -50.5 | +3.20 | +5.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 18 | 607 | +0.271 | +0.273 | -0.002 | +164.6 | 15 / 1 | -70.9 | 33 | -60.6 | +2.92 | +5.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 19 | 586 | +0.270 | +0.259 | +0.011 | +158.3 | 6 / 2 | -38.3 | 19 | -30.3 | +3.06 | +2.1 |
| Malik Willis | GB | 6 | 63 | +0.227 | +0.243 | -0.016 | +14.3 | 0 / 1 | -6.4 | 8 | -13.9 | +0.26 | +5.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | 18 | 631 | +0.210 | +0.205 | +0.005 | +132.3 | 16 / 1 | -75.1 | 41 | -68.2 | +2.72 | +4.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 11 | 421 | +0.204 | +0.203 | +0.000 | +85.7 | 7 / 2 | -42.5 | 21 | -41.1 | +2.23 | +3.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 17 | 701 | +0.184 | +0.165 | +0.018 | +128.7 | 9 / 5 | -71.1 | 48 | -96.3 | +4.17 | +6.8 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 15 | 482 | +0.158 | +0.162 | -0.004 | +76.2 | 12 / 3 | -65.9 | 31 | -47.9 | +1.42 | +2.1 |
| Derek Carr | NO | 10 | 290 | +0.150 | +0.164 | -0.014 | +43.6 | 5 / 0 | -20.1 | 8 | -10.4 | +0.89 | +3.2 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | 20 | 648 | +0.148 | +0.143 | +0.005 | +95.8 | 10 / 0 | -38.4 | 51 | -71.9 | +2.70 | +3.1 |
| Jordan Love | GB | 16 | 477 | +0.133 | +0.119 | +0.014 | +63.3 | 14 / 0 | -62.4 | 16 | -23.8 | +1.06 | +0.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 19 | 503 | +0.127 | +0.131 | -0.004 | +63.9 | 6 / 3 | -37.3 | 51 | -93.7 | +1.38 | +7.6 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | 17 | 570 | +0.117 | +0.115 | +0.002 | +66.5 | 11 / 1 | -45.2 | 30 | -50.4 | -0.49 | +2.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 19 | 715 | +0.117 | +0.102 | +0.014 | +83.4 | 13 / 1 | -67.7 | 47 | -72.6 | +3.30 | +2.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 18 | 581 | +0.091 | +0.086 | +0.005 | +52.7 | 7 / 1 | -39.8 | 45 | -68.6 | +1.54 | +0.5 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 5 | 109 | +0.086 | +0.134 | -0.047 | +9.4 | 3 / 0 | -15.0 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.28 | -4.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 18 | 624 | +0.075 | +0.066 | +0.008 | +46.6 | 8 / 3 | -46.6 | 35 | -66.0 | +1.40 | -0.9 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 18 | 615 | +0.051 | +0.044 | +0.007 | +31.3 | 12 / 0 | -42.8 | 26 | -43.4 | +0.39 | +0.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | ATL | 14 | 478 | +0.049 | +0.045 | +0.004 | +23.3 | 16 / 2 | -89.1 | 28 | -54.7 | +0.99 | +1.0 |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | 12 | 401 | +0.043 | +0.015 | +0.028 | +17.1 | 5 / 2 | -34.5 | 37 | -60.4 | -0.49 | +5.5 |
| Justin Fields | PIT | 8 | 178 | +0.034 | +0.040 | -0.006 | +6.1 | 1 / 1 | -11.2 | 16 | -28.7 | +0.17 | +2.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 10 | 305 | +0.032 | +0.020 | +0.012 | +9.8 | 7 / 1 | -29.5 | 18 | -34.8 | -0.49 | -1.2 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | 17 | 629 | +0.029 | +0.035 | -0.006 | +18.4 | 15 / 0 | -70.6 | 50 | -83.8 | +0.58 | +5.7 |
| Sam Darnold | MIN | 18 | 643 | +0.024 | +0.031 | -0.008 | +15.2 | 13 / 3 | -84.9 | 57 | -111.4 | +2.22 | +3.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | 17 | 627 | +0.011 | +0.018 | -0.007 | +6.7 | 11 / 2 | -63.1 | 40 | -67.9 | -0.29 | -2.5 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | 9 | 254 | +0.006 | +0.010 | -0.004 | +1.5 | 4 / 0 | -16.6 | 10 | -17.7 | +0.03 | -3.6 |
| Mac Jones | JAX | 10 | 279 | -0.005 | -0.012 | +0.006 | -1.5 | 8 / 1 | -23.6 | 14 | -25.9 | -0.06 | -0.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 8 | 307 | -0.007 | -0.031 | +0.024 | -2.2 | 8 / 1 | -39.9 | 21 | -33.6 | +1.07 | -1.0 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 19 | 655 | -0.021 | -0.017 | -0.004 | -13.5 | 13 / 2 | -61.7 | 63 | -113.8 | +0.48 | -1.4 |
| Joe Flacco | IND | 7 | 267 | -0.022 | +0.008 | -0.030 | -5.9 | 7 / 3 | -49.2 | 18 | -36.0 | -0.45 | +1.1 |
| Mason Rudolph | TEN | 8 | 237 | -0.028 | -0.005 | -0.023 | -6.7 | 9 / 0 | -40.8 | 11 | -17.0 | +0.06 | +0.3 |
| Jameis Winston | CLE | 9 | 326 | -0.052 | -0.077 | +0.025 | -16.8 | 12 / 2 | -78.3 | 24 | -39.7 | -0.38 | -1.8 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 14 | 414 | -0.072 | -0.062 | -0.010 | -29.9 | 9 / 1 | -39.5 | 29 | -56.2 | +0.08 | +0.8 |
| Drake Maye | NE | 13 | 374 | -0.083 | -0.070 | -0.013 | -31.1 | 10 / 4 | -65.3 | 34 | -73.3 | -0.42 | +2.5 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | 11 | 321 | -0.086 | -0.072 | -0.014 | -27.5 | 5 / 2 | -37.9 | 13 | -34.8 | -0.33 | -8.1 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | 17 | 636 | -0.086 | -0.075 | -0.010 | -54.5 | 6 / 3 | -37.0 | 68 | -117.5 | -1.84 | -0.2 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | 10 | 371 | -0.105 | -0.098 | -0.008 | -39.1 | 7 / 2 | -40.7 | 29 | -54.2 | -0.62 | +1.3 |
| Gardner Minshew | LV | 10 | 333 | -0.124 | -0.137 | +0.013 | -41.3 | 10 / 3 | -69.6 | 29 | -58.8 | -1.33 | +0.5 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | 11 | 277 | -0.130 | -0.141 | +0.012 | -35.9 | 12 / 2 | -55.0 | 14 | -26.9 | -0.90 | -10.9 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | 6 | 168 | -0.130 | -0.113 | -0.017 | -21.9 | 6 / 0 | -31.8 | 7 | -10.8 | -0.10 | -1.1 |
| Tyler Huntley | MIA | 5 | 149 | -0.135 | -0.137 | +0.003 | -20.0 | 3 / 1 | -16.1 | 15 | -25.4 | -0.83 | +3.2 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | 2 | 50 | -0.163 | -0.160 | -0.003 | -8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -8.3 | -0.20 | +4.8 |
| Will Levis | TEN | 12 | 344 | -0.191 | -0.190 | -0.000 | -65.5 | 12 / 3 | -68.4 | 41 | -65.7 | -2.99 | +0.0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | NE | 7 | 179 | -0.201 | -0.207 | +0.006 | -36.1 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 18 | -30.3 | -0.93 | -2.7 |
| Drew Lock | NYG | 7 | 193 | -0.218 | -0.215 | -0.003 | -42.1 | 5 / 2 | -39.8 | 12 | -28.0 | -1.46 | -6.3 |
| Tim Boyle | NYG | 3 | 51 | -0.255 | -0.280 | +0.025 | -13.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.15 | -8.5 |
| Desmond Ridder | LV | 5 | 94 | -0.262 | -0.234 | -0.028 | -24.7 | 2 / 2 | -14.8 | 10 | -25.0 | -0.46 | -3.1 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | 7 | 250 | -0.279 | -0.246 | -0.032 | -69.7 | 3 / 2 | -24.3 | 33 | -59.3 | -0.97 | -2.5 |
| Spencer Rattler | NO | 7 | 250 | -0.316 | -0.303 | -0.013 | -79.1 | 5 / 3 | -43.1 | 22 | -48.5 | -1.21 | -9.2 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE | 6 | 126 | -0.578 | -0.565 | -0.013 | -72.8 | 6 / 1 | -29.4 | 8 | -14.1 | -1.17 | -11.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.