Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quarterbacks, 2026
Dropback-weighted season totals. Click a column to sort, a name for the game log. Adj EPA/dropback is the number to compare players on; schedule shows how much of the gap from raw is opponents.
| Quarterback | Team | Games | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | SEA | 2 | 50 | +0.423 | +0.451 | -0.028 | +21.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.7 | +0.77 | +6.9 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | 4 | 136 | +0.353 | +0.307 | +0.047 | +48.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 12 | -13.8 | +1.29 | +8.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 6 | 194 | +0.327 | +0.275 | +0.052 | +63.5 | 4 / 0 | -15.5 | 10 | -15.4 | +1.50 | +3.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 4 | 101 | +0.326 | +0.365 | -0.039 | +32.9 | 1 / 1 | -8.1 | 7 | -16.2 | +1.19 | +8.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 6 | 186 | +0.315 | +0.285 | +0.030 | +58.5 | 4 / 1 | -12.9 | 12 | -20.6 | +1.59 | +5.1 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 7 | 217 | +0.297 | +0.291 | +0.006 | +64.5 | 4 / 0 | -19.3 | 7 | -13.7 | +1.67 | +4.3 |
| J.J. McCarthy | NYG | 2 | 50 | +0.290 | +0.245 | +0.045 | +14.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -6.6 | +0.16 | +7.1 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 6 | 235 | +0.283 | +0.317 | -0.033 | +66.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 12 | -19.8 | +1.47 | +1.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 6 | 229 | +0.242 | +0.223 | +0.019 | +55.3 | 3 / 1 | -22.8 | 10 | -16.3 | +0.94 | +7.1 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | 3 | 54 | +0.234 | +0.210 | +0.024 | +12.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.08 | +3.2 |
| Drake Maye | NE | 7 | 227 | +0.210 | +0.198 | +0.012 | +47.6 | 8 / 2 | -43.8 | 13 | -24.4 | +0.42 | +6.6 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 7 | 283 | +0.178 | +0.173 | +0.005 | +50.5 | 5 / 0 | -19.5 | 7 | -10.9 | +1.38 | +1.0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | 5 | 155 | +0.168 | +0.175 | -0.007 | +26.0 | 1 / 1 | -7.9 | 9 | -15.8 | +0.30 | -0.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | 7 | 269 | +0.156 | +0.143 | +0.013 | +41.9 | 5 / 0 | -19.8 | 10 | -11.6 | +1.26 | -1.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 6 | 199 | +0.133 | +0.113 | +0.020 | +26.5 | 4 / 0 | -19.0 | 7 | -11.1 | +0.46 | -0.0 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 6 | 245 | +0.125 | +0.102 | +0.023 | +30.7 | 4 / 1 | -17.9 | 17 | -31.7 | +0.67 | +0.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 7 | 288 | +0.124 | +0.118 | +0.006 | +35.8 | 7 / 0 | -30.7 | 11 | -17.9 | +0.93 | +1.5 |
| Jordan Love | GB | 7 | 286 | +0.114 | +0.121 | -0.007 | +32.5 | 5 / 1 | -25.6 | 14 | -20.0 | +0.59 | -3.1 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | 4 | 117 | +0.107 | +0.100 | +0.007 | +12.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 10 | -14.9 | +0.24 | +1.7 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 7 | 230 | +0.104 | +0.117 | -0.013 | +23.9 | 2 / 2 | -19.0 | 21 | -41.3 | +0.09 | +5.2 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 7 | 259 | +0.096 | +0.122 | -0.026 | +24.8 | 1 / 2 | -13.0 | 15 | -28.4 | +0.84 | +2.3 |
| Case Keenum | CHI | 2 | 55 | +0.026 | +0.015 | +0.011 | +1.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.1 | 2 | -5.4 | +0.19 | +0.0 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | 7 | 288 | +0.018 | +0.018 | +0.001 | +5.3 | 6 / 3 | -44.7 | 15 | -35.4 | +0.33 | +0.1 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | 4 | 126 | +0.018 | +0.036 | -0.018 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 10 | -14.5 | -0.58 | +7.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | 7 | 295 | -0.002 | -0.030 | +0.027 | -0.7 | 6 / 0 | -23.9 | 15 | -25.7 | -0.02 | +0.5 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | 7 | 236 | -0.023 | +0.008 | -0.031 | -5.4 | 3 / 1 | -17.2 | 25 | -37.0 | +0.60 | -1.0 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | 7 | 229 | -0.028 | -0.045 | +0.018 | -6.3 | 3 / 1 | -16.2 | 9 | -13.2 | +0.24 | -2.7 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | 6 | 190 | -0.038 | -0.051 | +0.013 | -7.2 | 8 / 0 | -40.5 | 14 | -21.3 | -0.49 | +0.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 5 | 167 | -0.075 | -0.058 | -0.017 | -12.5 | 3 / 0 | -13.1 | 13 | -15.6 | +0.21 | -2.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | 7 | 283 | -0.080 | -0.091 | +0.011 | -22.5 | 5 / 1 | -24.3 | 22 | -44.5 | -0.62 | -1.1 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | 5 | 136 | -0.103 | -0.066 | -0.037 | -14.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 12 | -19.8 | -0.31 | +2.8 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | 6 | 167 | -0.119 | -0.103 | -0.016 | -19.8 | 4 / 2 | -22.3 | 16 | -32.3 | -0.26 | -6.9 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | 3 | 67 | -0.121 | -0.075 | -0.046 | -8.1 | 3 / 0 | -14.3 | 4 | -5.5 | -0.26 | +1.5 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | 7 | 220 | -0.130 | -0.128 | -0.002 | -28.6 | 5 / 0 | -24.6 | 11 | -17.0 | -1.05 | -0.5 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | 7 | 258 | -0.143 | -0.139 | -0.004 | -37.0 | 7 / 3 | -45.8 | 19 | -43.5 | -0.87 | -4.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | 4 | 120 | -0.160 | -0.205 | +0.045 | -19.2 | 2 / 2 | -20.1 | 13 | -26.9 | -1.23 | +0.3 |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | 5 | 174 | -0.180 | -0.116 | -0.064 | -31.3 | 5 / 1 | -26.0 | 15 | -24.4 | -0.18 | -7.4 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 6 | 200 | -0.215 | -0.224 | +0.009 | -42.9 | 8 / 2 | -46.3 | 21 | -38.2 | -1.43 | -5.7 |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | 4 | 107 | -0.226 | -0.193 | -0.033 | -24.2 | 5 / 0 | -18.5 | 9 | -12.6 | -1.73 | -7.2 |
| Tanner McKee | PHI | 2 | 85 | -0.235 | -0.141 | -0.094 | -19.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 5 | -7.1 | -0.48 | -4.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.