Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quarterbacks, 2023
Dropback-weighted season totals. Click a column to sort, a name for the game log. Adj EPA/dropback is the number to compare players on; schedule shows how much of the gap from raw is opponents.
| Quarterback | Team | Games | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | LA | 1 | 27 | +0.376 | +0.301 | +0.076 | +10.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -5.3 | +0.42 | +6.7 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 19 | 580 | +0.281 | +0.283 | -0.002 | +162.7 | 12 / 2 | -68.7 | 32 | -54.5 | +3.44 | +3.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 18 | 630 | +0.196 | +0.171 | +0.025 | +123.3 | 15 / 1 | -68.3 | 31 | -52.1 | +2.53 | +3.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 19 | 675 | +0.164 | +0.150 | +0.014 | +110.9 | 18 / 1 | -54.5 | 26 | -41.0 | +2.65 | +4.5 |
| Jordan Love | GB | 19 | 665 | +0.162 | +0.168 | -0.006 | +107.9 | 13 / 1 | -53.4 | 30 | -46.5 | +2.01 | +1.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | 18 | 695 | +0.162 | +0.169 | -0.007 | +112.5 | 11 / 1 | -66.2 | 43 | -77.3 | +2.82 | +3.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | 20 | 754 | +0.143 | +0.144 | -0.000 | +108.0 | 12 / 2 | -66.8 | 37 | -68.5 | +4.11 | +1.3 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | 5 | 119 | +0.129 | +0.114 | +0.015 | +15.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.0 | 7 | -12.8 | +0.58 | +6.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | 17 | 588 | +0.128 | +0.123 | +0.006 | +75.5 | 5 / 3 | -36.4 | 38 | -72.1 | +2.79 | -0.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | 16 | 589 | +0.125 | +0.123 | +0.001 | +73.4 | 11 / 0 | -52.0 | 32 | -51.2 | +1.96 | -2.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | 8 | 326 | +0.123 | +0.115 | +0.008 | +40.0 | 5 / 3 | -46.2 | 17 | -36.7 | +0.19 | +4.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | 20 | 776 | +0.116 | +0.112 | +0.004 | +90.1 | 15 / 3 | -76.0 | 32 | -55.5 | +1.83 | +3.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 18 | 560 | +0.106 | +0.103 | +0.003 | +59.2 | 8 / 5 | -63.3 | 44 | -84.4 | +0.73 | +3.1 |
| Jake Browning | CIN | 9 | 268 | +0.105 | +0.087 | +0.018 | +28.1 | 7 / 0 | -33.1 | 24 | -34.6 | +1.05 | +3.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 18 | 613 | +0.100 | +0.097 | +0.003 | +61.0 | 15 / 1 | -68.6 | 39 | -52.7 | +0.75 | +4.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | 19 | 695 | +0.091 | +0.094 | -0.003 | +63.3 | 12 / 3 | -60.4 | 48 | -83.3 | +1.26 | -0.1 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | 4 | 41 | +0.073 | +0.093 | -0.020 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | -0.17 | -8.0 |
| C.J. Beathard | JAX | 5 | 60 | +0.072 | +0.077 | -0.006 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -5.9 | -0.06 | +9.9 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | 13 | 486 | +0.063 | +0.057 | +0.005 | +30.5 | 7 / 1 | -26.7 | 29 | -52.8 | +1.21 | -0.5 |
| Anthony Richardson | IND | 4 | 93 | +0.060 | +0.072 | -0.012 | +5.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 7 | -9.3 | +0.10 | -7.7 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | 15 | 528 | +0.057 | +0.064 | -0.007 | +30.0 | 9 / 2 | -41.5 | 31 | -54.7 | +1.99 | +2.4 |
| Jarrett Stidham | DEN | 2 | 73 | +0.049 | +0.069 | -0.020 | +3.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 7 | -10.9 | +0.09 | -3.8 |
| Nick Mullens | MIN | 5 | 159 | +0.039 | +0.079 | -0.040 | +6.2 | 8 / 0 | -23.5 | 12 | -19.1 | +0.89 | +5.9 |
| Derek Carr | NO | 17 | 581 | +0.032 | +0.048 | -0.017 | +18.4 | 8 / 2 | -48.3 | 31 | -60.1 | +0.66 | +3.2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 10 | 388 | +0.026 | +0.015 | +0.010 | +10.0 | 6 / 1 | -33.7 | 24 | -47.1 | +0.54 | +1.3 |
| Andy Dalton | CAR | 1 | 61 | +0.025 | +0.075 | -0.050 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.9 | +0.15 | -5.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 16 | 602 | +0.019 | -0.000 | +0.019 | +11.5 | 14 / 6 | -89.7 | 35 | -78.9 | +0.53 | +0.8 |
| Drew Lock | SEA | 4 | 83 | +0.010 | -0.019 | +0.029 | +0.8 | 3 / 0 | -4.1 | 6 | -11.2 | +0.43 | -4.6 |
| Sam Darnold | SF | 6 | 51 | +0.006 | -0.003 | +0.008 | +0.3 | 1 / 1 | -4.9 | 6 | -10.6 | -0.26 | -1.4 |
| Tyrod Taylor | NYG | 10 | 192 | +0.002 | +0.008 | -0.006 | +0.4 | 3 / 0 | -9.0 | 17 | -24.1 | -0.69 | +4.4 |
| Gardner Minshew | IND | 16 | 527 | -0.007 | -0.013 | +0.006 | -3.6 | 9 / 5 | -62.9 | 34 | -67.8 | +0.67 | -3.3 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | 15 | 491 | -0.026 | -0.030 | +0.004 | -12.9 | 8 / 4 | -59.6 | 45 | -87.6 | -0.75 | +4.9 |
| Taylor Heinicke | ATL | 5 | 142 | -0.046 | -0.010 | -0.036 | -6.6 | 4 / 0 | -14.7 | 8 | -11.6 | -0.37 | -9.3 |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV | 11 | 367 | -0.047 | -0.048 | +0.001 | -17.1 | 7 / 2 | -39.6 | 24 | -46.5 | -1.56 | -4.0 |
| Will Levis | TEN | 9 | 282 | -0.060 | -0.046 | -0.014 | -17.1 | 4 / 2 | -22.8 | 28 | -43.5 | -0.61 | -0.3 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | 6 | 42 | -0.066 | -0.148 | +0.082 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.4 | -0.08 | -18.9 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | 8 | 289 | -0.068 | -0.057 | -0.011 | -19.6 | 5 / 0 | -32.3 | 18 | -24.5 | -0.05 | -2.4 |
| Joe Flacco | CLE | 6 | 263 | -0.072 | -0.070 | -0.002 | -18.9 | 10 / 1 | -67.1 | 12 | -23.7 | +0.20 | -1.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 9 | 260 | -0.074 | -0.087 | +0.013 | -19.3 | 7 / 0 | -23.6 | 32 | -48.2 | +0.20 | +1.2 |
| Desmond Ridder | ATL | 15 | 420 | -0.088 | -0.076 | -0.012 | -36.8 | 12 / 4 | -79.0 | 31 | -56.1 | +0.12 | -1.5 |
| Kenny Pickett | PIT | 12 | 347 | -0.095 | -0.118 | +0.023 | -32.9 | 4 / 0 | -17.2 | 23 | -41.8 | -0.69 | -2.1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | 7 | 183 | -0.107 | -0.097 | -0.010 | -19.6 | 9 / 0 | -40.6 | 14 | -27.5 | +0.22 | -2.8 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | 13 | 416 | -0.109 | -0.092 | -0.018 | -45.5 | 9 / 3 | -50.4 | 44 | -80.1 | -0.70 | +0.7 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | 6 | 187 | -0.117 | -0.104 | -0.013 | -21.8 | 4 / 1 | -30.8 | 17 | -29.1 | -1.71 | -0.1 |
| Mac Jones | NE | 11 | 368 | -0.154 | -0.149 | -0.005 | -56.7 | 12 / 1 | -71.7 | 22 | -34.6 | -1.82 | -2.7 |
| Sam Howell | WAS | 17 | 679 | -0.159 | -0.153 | -0.006 | -107.6 | 21 / 1 | -109.9 | 65 | -106.9 | -1.67 | -0.5 |
| Easton Stick | LAC | 5 | 187 | -0.166 | -0.172 | +0.006 | -31.0 | 1 / 4 | -38.3 | 14 | -47.2 | -1.22 | -4.7 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | 5 | 114 | -0.171 | -0.160 | -0.011 | -19.4 | 5 / 0 | -18.5 | 7 | -13.2 | -1.02 | -2.2 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | 5 | 149 | -0.179 | -0.177 | -0.002 | -26.6 | 6 / 2 | -39.1 | 5 | -18.3 | -0.47 | -2.4 |
| Joshua Dobbs | MIN | 13 | 450 | -0.188 | -0.181 | -0.007 | -84.6 | 10 / 5 | -72.4 | 30 | -71.7 | -2.51 | -2.1 |
| Marcus Mariota | PHI | 2 | 26 | -0.198 | -0.197 | -0.001 | -5.1 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 3 | -6.3 | -0.04 | -0.4 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | 7 | 25 | -0.206 | -0.210 | +0.004 | -5.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.00 | +7.3 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | 4 | 49 | -0.220 | -0.200 | -0.020 | -10.8 | 3 / 0 | -8.2 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.21 | -7.8 |
| Tommy DeVito | NYG | 9 | 215 | -0.225 | -0.229 | +0.004 | -48.5 | 3 / 0 | -12.4 | 37 | -51.3 | -0.85 | -3.4 |
| Brian Hoyer | LV | 2 | 43 | -0.242 | -0.204 | -0.038 | -10.4 | 2 / 0 | -12.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.02 | -11.2 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | 12 | 413 | -0.243 | -0.246 | +0.003 | -100.3 | 7 / 4 | -57.5 | 46 | -92.9 | -2.60 | -3.5 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | 16 | 589 | -0.286 | -0.268 | -0.018 | -168.5 | 10 / 6 | -91.7 | 62 | -128.9 | -3.57 | -1.5 |
| PJ Walker | CLE | 5 | 121 | -0.294 | -0.288 | -0.006 | -35.6 | 5 / 2 | -29.9 | 11 | -21.8 | -1.07 | -13.0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE | 6 | 117 | -0.327 | -0.334 | +0.008 | -38.2 | 4 / 0 | -16.6 | 6 | -12.1 | -0.63 | -11.8 |
| Bailey Zappe | NE | 10 | 236 | -0.332 | -0.348 | +0.015 | -78.4 | 9 / 1 | -45.1 | 25 | -47.7 | -2.05 | -4.7 |
| Trevor Siemian | NYJ | 5 | 161 | -0.342 | -0.339 | -0.003 | -55.1 | 4 / 2 | -32.1 | 8 | -14.5 | -1.09 | -9.3 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | 6 | 191 | -0.344 | -0.321 | -0.022 | -65.7 | 6 / 1 | -43.5 | 30 | -44.5 | -0.59 | +0.3 |
| Case Keenum | HOU | 2 | 59 | -0.346 | -0.350 | +0.004 | -20.4 | 3 / 0 | -12.7 | 6 | -9.5 | -0.30 | -2.9 |
| Tim Boyle | NYJ | 3 | 86 | -0.389 | -0.360 | -0.028 | -33.4 | 4 / 0 | -16.9 | 9 | -15.0 | -0.56 | -5.1 |
| Jeff Driskel | CLE | 1 | 29 | -0.400 | -0.378 | -0.022 | -11.6 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.25 | -11.0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | KC | 2 | 36 | -0.470 | -0.448 | -0.021 | -16.9 | 3 / 0 | -13.3 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.14 | -15.5 |
| Brett Rypien | LA | 2 | 40 | -0.500 | -0.493 | -0.007 | -20.0 | 1 / 1 | -9.6 | 2 | -7.7 | -0.26 | -19.0 |
| Clayton Tune | ARI | 2 | 28 | -1.168 | -1.241 | +0.073 | -32.7 | 2 / 1 | -14.7 | 7 | -14.1 | -0.42 | -15.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.