Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG L | 6–28 | -15.5dog 6.5 | -0.43 → -0.41 | +0.29 → +0.24 | -0.65 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 53% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LA W | 28–6 | +15.5fav 6.5 | +0.29 → +0.27 | -0.43 → -0.45 | +0.72 | 100%raw 100% | 47% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| CAR W | 34–3 | +28.5fav 2.5 | +0.14 → +0.16 | -0.47 → -0.47 | +0.63 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| @ ATL L | 3–34 | -28.5dog 2.5 | -0.47 → -0.53 | +0.14 → +0.15 | -0.68 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 5 / 0 |
| SEA W | 31–7 | +20.5fav 3.5 | +0.13 → +0.08 | -0.33 → -0.32 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 40% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 7–31 | -20.5dog 3.5 | -0.33 → -0.24 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.38 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 60% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA L | 13–35 | -9.5dog 12.5 | -0.00 → -0.01 | +0.46 → +0.40 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 53% | 0 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 35–13 | +9.5fav 12.5 | +0.46 → +0.41 | -0.00 → +0.02 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| JAX L | 13–20 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.05 → +0.00 | +0.12 → +0.14 | -0.14 | 17%raw 9% | 1% – 85% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 20–13 | +4.5fav 2.5 | +0.12 → +0.18 | -0.05 → -0.11 | +0.29 | 96%raw 91% | 15% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT L | 3–20 | -12.5dog 4.5 | -0.36 → -0.35 | -0.07 → -0.12 | -0.22 | 8%raw 2% | 0% – 43% | 2 / 2 |
| @ NE W | 20–3 | +12.5fav 4.5 | -0.07 → -0.07 | -0.36 → -0.36 | +0.29 | 96%raw 98% | 57% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| DET L | 31–41 | -4.5dog 5.5 | +0.23 → +0.21 | +0.43 → +0.34 | -0.13 | 19%raw 6% | 0% – 47% | 0 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 41–31 | +4.5fav 5.5 | +0.43 → +0.42 | +0.23 → +0.17 | +0.24 | 94%raw 94% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| CIN W | 20–6 | +17.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.04 | -0.25 → -0.26 | +0.21 | 92%raw 89% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 6–20 | -17.0fav 3.0 | -0.25 → -0.30 | -0.09 → -0.12 | -0.18 | 12%raw 11% | 0% – 70% | 0 / 0 |
| GB W | 20–17 | -0.5fav 3.5 | -0.22 → -0.28 | -0.11 → -0.06 | -0.22 | 8%raw 17% | 8% – 98% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYJ L | 17–20 | +0.5dog 3.5 | -0.11 → -0.10 | -0.22 → -0.27 | +0.17 | 87%raw 83% | 2% – 92% | 0 / 1 |
| CLE W | 23–19 | +12.5dog 8.5 | +0.01 → +0.04 | -0.15 → -0.13 | +0.16 | 86%raw 89% | 15% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| @ TB L | 19–23 | -12.5fav 8.5 | -0.15 → -0.11 | +0.01 → +0.10 | -0.21 | 9%raw 11% | 4% – 85% | 1 / 0 |
| LV W | 26–14 | +18.5dog 6.5 | -0.10 → -0.06 | -0.26 → -0.19 | +0.13 | 82%raw 90% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ LAC L | 14–26 | -18.5fav 6.5 | -0.26 → -0.29 | -0.10 → -0.02 | -0.28 | 4%raw 10% | 0% – 72% | 3 / 1 |
| MIN W | 9–3 | +10.5dog 4.5 | -0.08 → -0.08 | -0.13 → -0.17 | +0.09 | 74%raw 66% | 34% – 93% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CHI L | 3–9 | -10.5fav 4.5 | -0.13 → -0.03 | -0.08 → +0.00 | -0.03 | 42%raw 34% | 7% – 66% | 2 / 0 |
| WAS L | 20–37 | -13.5dog 3.5 | +0.07 → -0.03 | +0.23 → +0.17 | -0.20 | 10%raw 10% | 0% – 45% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 37–20 | +13.5fav 3.5 | +0.23 → +0.16 | +0.07 → +0.07 | +0.09 | 73%raw 90% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| IND L | 30–33 | +3.0dog 6.0 | +0.15 → +0.20 | +0.23 → +0.20 | -0.00 | 50%raw 27% | 15% – 90% | 1 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 33–30 | -3.0fav 6.0 | +0.23 → +0.23 | +0.15 → +0.16 | +0.07 | 70%raw 73% | 10% – 85% | 0 / 1 |
| NO W | 24–17 | +15.5dog 8.5 | +0.13 → +0.13 | +0.12 → +0.08 | +0.05 | 63%raw 56% | 10% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BAL L | 17–24 | -15.5fav 8.5 | +0.12 → +0.12 | +0.13 → +0.19 | -0.07 | 31%raw 44% | 1% – 90% | 1 / 0 |
| PHI W | 24–20 | -3.0fav 7.0 | +0.04 → -0.02 | +0.08 → +0.18 | -0.20 | 10%raw 38% | 22% – 91% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TEN L | 20–24 | +3.0dog 7.0 | +0.08 → +0.07 | +0.04 → +0.07 | -0.00 | 50%raw 62% | 9% – 78% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | MIA | 22 | +0.974 | +1.060 | -0.087 | +21.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.32 | +29.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NYG | 31 | +0.606 | +0.596 | +0.010 | +18.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.18 | +7.3 |
| Drew Lock | SEA | ARI | 27 | +0.506 | +0.596 | -0.090 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.4 | +0.52 | +8.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | BUF | 42 | +0.468 | +0.442 | +0.025 | +19.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.7 | +0.04 | +6.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | DET | 33 | +0.448 | +0.456 | -0.008 | +14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.14 | +5.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 33 | +0.373 | +0.458 | -0.085 | +12.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.23 | +18.0 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | TB | 32 | +0.349 | +0.324 | +0.024 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.43 | +6.4 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | JAX | 31 | +0.345 | +0.272 | +0.073 | +10.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | +11.5 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | ATL | 38 | +0.322 | +0.291 | +0.031 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.22 | +11.6 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | DAL | 16 | +0.285 | +0.421 | -0.136 | +4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.09 | +8.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | IND | 49 | +0.279 | +0.274 | +0.005 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.28 | +3.7 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | BAL | 37 | +0.278 | +0.295 | -0.017 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.50 | +14.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | LAC | 31 | +0.260 | +0.193 | +0.067 | +8.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.31 | +2.9 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | KC | 31 | +0.229 | +0.190 | +0.039 | +7.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +3.9 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | SF | 27 | +0.146 | +0.165 | -0.019 | +3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.4 | +0.01 | -8.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | TEN | 40 | +0.146 | +0.219 | -0.073 | +5.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.73 | +15.9 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | MIN | 29 | +0.104 | -0.036 | +0.140 | +3.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 3 | -2.1 | +0.09 | -5.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | NO | 33 | +0.094 | +0.103 | -0.009 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 3 | -6.1 | +0.05 | +7.9 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | GB | 44 | +0.094 | +0.098 | -0.004 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | -0.03 | +5.9 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | HOU | 36 | +0.063 | -0.015 | +0.079 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.0 | +0.03 | -6.5 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | CHI | 23 | +0.028 | +0.022 | +0.006 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.05 | -8.3 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | PHI | 22 | +0.020 | -0.004 | +0.025 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.07 | +6.5 |
| Drake Maye | NE | PIT | 25 | -0.041 | -0.051 | +0.010 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -2.7 | -0.03 | +0.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | DEN | 31 | -0.044 | -0.133 | +0.089 | -1.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.04 | +0.9 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 30 | -0.074 | -0.019 | -0.055 | -2.2 | 2 / 0 | -7.9 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.02 | -6.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | DAL | 17 | -0.125 | +0.011 | -0.136 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.08 | +3.5 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | CIN | 57 | -0.155 | -0.102 | -0.053 | -8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.16 | -8.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | SEA | 30 | -0.175 | -0.269 | +0.095 | -5.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.11 | -5.6 |
| Jordan Love | GB | NYJ | 32 | -0.221 | -0.099 | -0.122 | -7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -1.6 | -0.04 | -13.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CLE | 37 | -0.308 | -0.367 | +0.058 | -11.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.51 | +4.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | NE | 43 | -0.476 | -0.498 | +0.022 | -20.5 | 1 / 1 | -12.1 | 4 | -15.0 | -0.36 | -6.4 |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | LA | 29 | -0.563 | -0.569 | +0.006 | -16.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -1.8 | -0.22 | -25.3 |
| Cooper Rush | ATL | CAR | 18 | -0.746 | -0.677 | -0.069 | -13.4 | 2 / 0 | -12.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.11 | -16.8 |
| Jack Strand | ATL | CAR | 17 | -0.826 | -0.756 | -0.069 | -14.0 | 1 / 1 | -11.4 | 2 | -6.3 | -0.00 | -21.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.