Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI L | 7–31 | -25.5fav 1.5 | -0.34 → -0.34 | +0.25 → +0.22 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 5 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 31–7 | +25.5dog 1.5 | +0.25 → +0.26 | -0.34 → -0.40 | +0.66 | 100%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| SF W | 32–29 | +6.0dog 3.0 | -0.14 → -0.05 | -0.43 → -0.45 | +0.40 | 99%raw 98% | 24% – 95% | 2 / 4 |
| @ SEA L | 29–32 | -6.0fav 3.0 | -0.43 → -0.45 | -0.14 → -0.22 | -0.23 | 7%raw 2% | 5% – 76% | 4 / 2 |
| HOU W | 26–3 | +16.5fav 6.5 | +0.13 → +0.08 | -0.39 → -0.30 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ TEN L | 3–26 | -16.5dog 6.5 | -0.39 → -0.35 | +0.13 → +0.14 | -0.49 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 67% | 2 / 0 |
| LV L | 17–45 | -24.5dog 3.5 | -0.02 → +0.01 | +0.42 → +0.39 | -0.38 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NE W | 45–17 | +24.5fav 3.5 | +0.42 → +0.42 | -0.02 → +0.07 | +0.35 | 98%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| IND L | 22–34 | -9.0dog 3.0 | +0.00 → +0.01 | +0.24 → +0.27 | -0.26 | 5%raw 4% | 0% – 57% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 34–22 | +9.0fav 3.0 | +0.24 → +0.25 | +0.00 → -0.00 | +0.25 | 94%raw 96% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| PHI L | 17–19 | +5.5dog 7.5 | -0.20 → -0.16 | +0.06 → +0.01 | -0.17 | 13%raw 3% | 12% – 75% | 0 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 19–17 | -5.5fav 7.5 | +0.06 → +0.06 | -0.20 → -0.18 | +0.24 | 94%raw 97% | 25% – 88% | 1 / 0 |
| DET W | 45–21 | +18.5fav 5.5 | +0.33 → +0.28 | +0.02 → +0.05 | +0.23 | 93%raw 98% | 19% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ ARI L | 21–45 | -18.5dog 5.5 | +0.02 → -0.01 | +0.33 → +0.27 | -0.29 | 4%raw 2% | 0% – 81% | 1 / 0 |
| MIN W | 23–13 | +7.5fav 2.5 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.35 → -0.32 | +0.21 | 91%raw 97% | 24% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ NO L | 13–23 | -7.5dog 2.5 | -0.35 → -0.26 | -0.10 → -0.03 | -0.24 | 7%raw 3% | 0% – 76% | 2 / 2 |
| TB W | 24–16 | +17.5dog 9.5 | +0.16 → +0.06 | -0.03 → -0.10 | +0.17 | 86%raw 93% | 29% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ DAL L | 16–24 | -17.5fav 9.5 | -0.03 → -0.01 | +0.16 → +0.19 | -0.20 | 10%raw 7% | 1% – 71% | 2 / 0 |
| BUF W | 37–34 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.28 → +0.33 | +0.25 → +0.19 | +0.14 | 82%raw 61% | 22% – 90% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA L | 34–37 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.25 → +0.23 | +0.28 → +0.18 | +0.05 | 64%raw 39% | 10% – 78% | 0 / 2 |
| CIN W | 31–24 | +0.0fav 7.0 | +0.14 → +0.07 | -0.05 → -0.03 | +0.10 | 76%raw 93% | 40% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ MIA L | 24–31 | +0.0dog 7.0 | -0.05 → -0.09 | +0.14 → +0.12 | -0.21 | 8%raw 7% | 0% – 60% | 3 / 1 |
| DEN W | 23–17 | +2.5fav 3.5 | -0.27 → -0.24 | -0.40 → -0.33 | +0.09 | 74%raw 85% | 13% – 95% | 1 / 3 |
| @ LAC L | 17–23 | -2.5dog 3.5 | -0.40 → -0.36 | -0.27 → -0.27 | -0.09 | 27%raw 15% | 5% – 87% | 3 / 1 |
| CLE L | 12–17 | -2.5dog 2.5 | -0.30 → -0.36 | -0.18 → -0.13 | -0.23 | 7%raw 16% | 1% – 80% | 2 / 2 |
| @ NYJ W | 17–12 | +2.5fav 2.5 | -0.18 → -0.14 | -0.30 → -0.22 | +0.08 | 71%raw 84% | 20% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| BAL W | 30–23 | +10.5dog 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.05 | -0.02 → +0.00 | +0.05 | 63%raw 69% | 5% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL L | 23–30 | -10.5fav 3.5 | -0.02 → -0.03 | +0.04 → +0.00 | -0.03 | 41%raw 31% | 7% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| NYG T | 27–27 | +3.5dog 3.5 | +0.06 → -0.01 | +0.10 → +0.10 | -0.11 | 23%raw 40% | 4% – 82% | 2 / 0 |
| @ WAS T | 27–27 | -3.5fav 3.5 | +0.10 → +0.07 | +0.06 → +0.07 | -0.00 | 50%raw 60% | 18% – 96% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | NE | LV | 35 | +0.813 | +0.842 | -0.029 | +28.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.37 | +22.6 |
| Jordan Love | GB | CHI | 34 | +0.519 | +0.497 | +0.022 | +17.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.5 | +0.16 | +16.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | LA | 21 | +0.445 | +0.399 | +0.046 | +9.3 | 1 / 0 | -1.2 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.41 | -1.4 |
| Jared Goff | DET | ARI | 33 | +0.403 | +0.496 | -0.093 | +13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.4 | +0.26 | +0.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | BUF | 56 | +0.353 | +0.330 | +0.023 | +19.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.92 | +1.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | NE | 31 | +0.341 | +0.297 | +0.044 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.04 | +0.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | MIA | 32 | +0.328 | +0.436 | -0.108 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +8.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | PHI | 41 | +0.279 | +0.248 | +0.031 | +11.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.9 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.36 | -3.3 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | NO | 31 | +0.269 | +0.270 | -0.001 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.01 | +11.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | TEN | 36 | +0.223 | +0.292 | -0.069 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.29 | +10.0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | BAL | 35 | +0.196 | +0.219 | -0.022 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.03 | -5.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | IND | 32 | +0.134 | +0.133 | +0.001 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.08 | +2.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | ATL | 36 | +0.115 | +0.094 | +0.022 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.04 | +6.4 |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | WAS | 56 | +0.096 | +0.189 | -0.092 | +5.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 2 | -7.2 | +0.08 | -0.3 |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | DAL | 26 | +0.089 | +0.226 | -0.137 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.18 | +2.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | JAX | 41 | +0.048 | -0.015 | +0.063 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.00 | -11.1 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | SEA | 33 | +0.040 | -0.061 | +0.101 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 3 | -5.6 | +0.06 | +5.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | DET | 51 | +0.039 | +0.061 | -0.022 | +2.0 | 1 / 0 | -0.2 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.06 | +0.9 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | PIT | 45 | +0.006 | -0.003 | +0.009 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.04 | -4.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | TB | 43 | -0.065 | -0.076 | +0.012 | -2.8 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | -10.0 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | NYG | 31 | -0.078 | -0.077 | -0.001 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.9 | -0.19 | +8.1 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LAC | 28 | -0.187 | -0.233 | +0.046 | -5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.04 | -0.2 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | CLE | 34 | -0.277 | -0.333 | +0.056 | -9.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 4 | -11.0 | -0.62 | -9.0 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 28 | -0.282 | -0.364 | +0.083 | -7.9 | 1 / 1 | -8.7 | 5 | -12.2 | -0.66 | -6.6 |
| Case Keenum | CHI | GB | 21 | -0.325 | -0.306 | -0.019 | -6.8 | 1 / 1 | -8.1 | 2 | -5.4 | -0.01 | -4.5 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | MIN | 26 | -0.334 | -0.459 | +0.125 | -8.7 | 2 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.16 | -8.0 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | HOU | 40 | -0.358 | -0.423 | +0.065 | -14.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -7.7 | -0.35 | -2.4 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | SF | 34 | -0.388 | -0.354 | -0.034 | -13.2 | 2 / 0 | -8.9 | 5 | -7.5 | -0.53 | +0.1 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | CIN | 30 | -0.424 | -0.370 | -0.054 | -12.7 | 2 / 1 | -11.9 | 3 | -9.0 | -0.34 | -1.8 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | NYJ | 41 | -0.431 | -0.304 | -0.126 | -17.7 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 8 | -12.0 | -0.49 | -15.6 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | GB | 23 | -0.467 | -0.448 | -0.019 | -10.7 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.26 | -10.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.