Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE L | 6–35 | -26.0dog 3.0 | -0.25 → -0.22 | +0.23 → +0.19 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 60% | 3 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 35–6 | +26.0fav 3.0 | +0.23 → +0.27 | -0.25 → -0.32 | +0.59 | 100%raw 100% | 40% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| PHI L | 7–27 | -23.5fav 3.5 | -0.30 → -0.31 | +0.09 → +0.06 | -0.37 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ CHI W | 27–7 | +23.5dog 3.5 | +0.09 → +0.09 | -0.30 → -0.29 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| ATL W | 35–14 | +25.5dog 4.5 | +0.32 → +0.35 | +0.01 → -0.02 | +0.37 | 98%raw 98% | 21% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ GB L | 14–35 | -25.5fav 4.5 | +0.01 → +0.03 | +0.32 → +0.36 | -0.34 | 2%raw 2% | 0% – 79% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI L | 30–36 | +1.5dog 7.5 | +0.17 → +0.17 | +0.49 → +0.43 | -0.26 | 5%raw 1% | 1% – 53% | 0 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 36–30 | -1.5fav 7.5 | +0.49 → +0.45 | +0.17 → +0.20 | +0.25 | 94%raw 99% | 47% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| KC W | 24–10 | +4.0fav 10.0 | +0.14 → +0.07 | -0.15 → -0.13 | +0.20 | 91%raw 98% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ MIA L | 10–24 | -4.0dog 10.0 | -0.15 → -0.12 | +0.14 → +0.11 | -0.23 | 7%raw 2% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 1 |
| LV W | 35–27 | +11.5dog 3.5 | +0.14 → +0.14 | -0.06 → -0.02 | +0.16 | 86%raw 94% | 13% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ NO L | 27–35 | -11.5fav 3.5 | -0.06 → -0.09 | +0.14 → +0.23 | -0.32 | 3%raw 6% | 0% – 87% | 4 / 0 |
| LA L | 26–30 | -2.5dog 1.5 | +0.01 → +0.07 | -0.04 → -0.03 | +0.10 | 75%raw 68% | 17% – 91% | 2 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 30–26 | +2.5fav 1.5 | -0.04 → -0.00 | +0.01 → -0.05 | +0.05 | 63%raw 32% | 9% – 83% | 1 / 2 |
| CIN L | 27–30 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.28 → +0.30 | +0.20 → +0.23 | +0.07 | 69%raw 75% | 3% – 67% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 30–27 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.20 → +0.17 | +0.28 → +0.27 | -0.10 | 25%raw 25% | 33% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| SEA L | 31–33 | -10.5fav 8.5 | -0.05 → -0.12 | -0.08 → -0.08 | -0.04 | 39%raw 61% | 3% – 49% | 3 / 0 |
| @ WAS W | 33–31 | +10.5dog 8.5 | -0.08 → +0.02 | -0.05 → -0.05 | +0.07 | 68%raw 39% | 51% – 97% | 0 / 3 |
| CAR L | 18–21 | -5.5fav 2.5 | -0.12 → -0.08 | -0.04 → +0.05 | -0.13 | 20%raw 26% | 2% – 78% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CLE W | 21–18 | +5.5dog 2.5 | -0.04 → -0.08 | -0.12 → -0.12 | +0.04 | 61%raw 74% | 22% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| MIN W | 23–16 | +5.5fav 1.5 | -0.26 → -0.25 | -0.25 → -0.23 | -0.02 | 45%raw 44% | 36% – 97% | 1 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 16–23 | -5.5dog 1.5 | -0.25 → -0.16 | -0.26 → -0.19 | +0.04 | 61%raw 56% | 3% – 64% | 2 / 1 |
| LAC L | 16–24 | -1.0dog 7.0 | -0.07 → -0.10 | -0.02 → -0.13 | +0.03 | 59%raw 33% | 0% – 83% | 1 / 5 |
| @ BUF W | 24–16 | +1.0fav 7.0 | -0.02 → +0.02 | -0.07 → +0.01 | +0.01 | 54%raw 67% | 17% – 100% | 5 / 1 |
| HOU L | 17–19 | -3.5fav 1.5 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.11 → -0.12 | +0.02 | 55%raw 57% | 8% – 54% | 0 / 3 |
| @ IND W | 19–17 | +3.5dog 1.5 | -0.11 → -0.07 | -0.09 → -0.10 | +0.03 | 58%raw 43% | 46% – 92% | 3 / 0 |
| BAL W | 34–31 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.03 | +0.09 → +0.02 | +0.01 | 53%raw 64% | 19% – 86% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DAL L | 31–34 | +0.0dog 3.0 | +0.09 → +0.09 | +0.13 → +0.10 | -0.02 | 46%raw 36% | 14% – 81% | 1 / 0 |
| NYJ L | 24–31 | +0.0dog 7.0 | +0.10 → +0.06 | +0.19 → +0.13 | -0.07 | 32%raw 22% | 1% – 55% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DET W | 31–24 | +0.0fav 7.0 | +0.19 → +0.15 | +0.10 → +0.15 | -0.00 | 50%raw 78% | 45% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| TEN L | 7–12 | -2.5dog 2.5 | -0.15 → -0.18 | -0.12 → -0.12 | -0.06 | 33%raw 40% | 3% – 49% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYG W | 12–7 | +2.5fav 2.5 | -0.12 → -0.18 | -0.15 → -0.05 | -0.13 | 19%raw 60% | 51% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | SF | ARI | 27 | +0.770 | +0.849 | -0.079 | +20.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.49 | -4.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | DAL | 20 | +0.471 | +0.596 | -0.125 | +9.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.74 | +9.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | MIA | 24 | +0.432 | +0.538 | -0.106 | +10.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +18.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 38 | +0.407 | +0.386 | +0.022 | +15.5 | 0 / 1 | -4.1 | 1 | -4.1 | +0.28 | +8.9 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | GB | 26 | +0.371 | +0.366 | +0.006 | +9.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +8.8 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NE | 29 | +0.309 | +0.263 | +0.045 | +9.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.04 | +6.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | BAL | 42 | +0.300 | +0.317 | -0.017 | +12.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.0 | +0.32 | -3.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | NYJ | 34 | +0.249 | +0.357 | -0.108 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.65 | +6.9 |
| Case Keenum | CHI | PHI | 34 | +0.242 | +0.213 | +0.029 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +2.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | NO | 38 | +0.232 | +0.236 | -0.004 | +8.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.37 | +8.6 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | DET | 44 | +0.229 | +0.247 | -0.019 | +10.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 5 | -11.3 | +0.41 | +14.8 |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS | SEA | 33 | +0.223 | +0.117 | +0.107 | +7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.15 | -0.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CIN | 35 | +0.204 | +0.245 | -0.041 | +7.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.17 | -2.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | SF | 53 | +0.194 | +0.211 | -0.017 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.05 | +8.0 |
| Jordan Love | GB | ATL | 54 | +0.089 | +0.066 | +0.023 | +4.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.09 | -8.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | DEN | 57 | +0.074 | -0.020 | +0.094 | +4.2 | 2 / 0 | -11.4 | 4 | -6.4 | -0.36 | +0.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | LAC | 30 | +0.048 | -0.014 | +0.062 | +1.4 | 2 / 1 | -10.0 | 4 | -9.1 | -0.06 | -0.9 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | CAR | 33 | +0.036 | +0.077 | -0.041 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.23 | -13.7 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | WAS | 45 | -0.005 | +0.091 | -0.096 | -0.2 | 2 / 0 | -13.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +5.3 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | LA | 37 | -0.007 | -0.029 | +0.022 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.15 | -11.4 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | CLE | 50 | -0.055 | -0.117 | +0.062 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.34 | -2.7 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | KC | 36 | -0.078 | -0.112 | +0.035 | -2.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | -7.1 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | HOU | 40 | -0.097 | -0.172 | +0.075 | -3.9 | 1 / 2 | -14.5 | 4 | -15.9 | -0.11 | -0.8 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | IND | 30 | -0.108 | -0.103 | -0.005 | -3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.24 | +0.2 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | LV | 44 | -0.138 | -0.082 | -0.056 | -6.1 | 1 / 2 | -16.9 | 2 | -10.3 | -0.14 | +4.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | MIN | 40 | -0.139 | -0.272 | +0.133 | -5.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 6 | -8.4 | -0.44 | -14.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | BUF | 36 | -0.171 | -0.177 | +0.005 | -6.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.20 | -1.0 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | NYG | 36 | -0.194 | -0.180 | -0.014 | -7.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.36 | -0.1 |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | TEN | 25 | -0.330 | -0.245 | -0.085 | -8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.05 | -4.8 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | TB | 32 | -0.374 | -0.378 | +0.004 | -12.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.38 | -3.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | CHI | 27 | -0.417 | -0.406 | -0.012 | -11.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 2 | -2.6 | -0.19 | +0.1 |
| Drake Maye | NE | JAX | 28 | -0.453 | -0.506 | +0.053 | -12.7 | 2 / 1 | -17.4 | 3 | -9.0 | -0.30 | +0.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.