Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL W | 45–24 | +22.5dog 1.5 | +0.42 → +0.44 | -0.07 → -0.03 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 24–45 | -22.5fav 1.5 | -0.07 → -0.07 | +0.42 → +0.47 | -0.53 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| LA W | 24–20 | +0.5fav 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.05 | -0.29 → -0.27 | +0.32 | 97%raw 99% | 4% – 99% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PHI L | 20–24 | -0.5dog 3.5 | -0.29 → -0.26 | +0.06 → -0.00 | -0.26 | 5%raw 1% | 1% – 96% | 0 / 2 |
| TEN L | 18–24 | +5.5dog 11.5 | -0.16 → -0.17 | +0.17 → +0.14 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 48% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BAL W | 24–18 | -5.5fav 11.5 | +0.17 → +0.12 | -0.16 → -0.06 | +0.18 | 88%raw 99% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| JAX W | 22–17 | +7.5dog 2.5 | +0.21 → +0.19 | +0.05 → +0.02 | +0.16 | 86%raw 91% | 35% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CIN L | 17–22 | -7.5fav 2.5 | +0.05 → +0.10 | +0.21 → +0.17 | -0.07 | 32%raw 9% | 3% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| DET L | 26–32 | -10.5fav 4.5 | +0.18 → +0.15 | +0.29 → +0.31 | -0.16 | 15%raw 18% | 1% – 53% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CAR W | 32–26 | +10.5dog 4.5 | +0.29 → +0.27 | +0.18 → +0.11 | +0.15 | 84%raw 82% | 47% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| NE W | 29–26 | +10.0dog 7.0 | +0.18 → +0.16 | +0.12 → +0.01 | +0.15 | 84%raw 69% | 19% – 94% | 2 / 2 |
| @ BUF L | 26–29 | -10.0fav 7.0 | +0.12 → +0.15 | +0.18 → +0.13 | +0.01 | 54%raw 31% | 6% – 81% | 2 / 2 |
| LAC L | 23–30 | +0.0dog 7.0 | -0.09 → +0.01 | -0.09 → -0.10 | +0.11 | 77%raw 51% | 0% – 55% | 3 / 1 |
| @ SEA W | 30–23 | +0.0fav 7.0 | -0.09 → -0.05 | -0.09 → -0.01 | -0.04 | 39%raw 49% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| NYJ L | 12–23 | -7.5dog 3.5 | -0.14 → -0.14 | +0.06 → +0.02 | -0.16 | 14%raw 7% | 0% – 49% | 0 / 2 |
| @ CHI W | 23–12 | +7.5fav 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.01 | -0.14 → -0.09 | +0.10 | 76%raw 93% | 51% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| IND W | 30–13 | +12.5fav 4.5 | -0.09 → -0.16 | -0.25 → -0.26 | +0.09 | 74%raw 90% | 21% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 13–30 | -12.5dog 4.5 | -0.25 → -0.27 | -0.09 → -0.09 | -0.17 | 12%raw 10% | 0% – 79% | 1 / 2 |
| DEN L | 14–24 | -7.0dog 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.07 | +0.12 → +0.05 | +0.02 | 56%raw 35% | 0% – 63% | 0 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 24–14 | +7.0fav 3.0 | +0.12 → +0.18 | +0.07 → +0.09 | +0.09 | 73%raw 65% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| ARI L | 24–36 | -14.5fav 2.5 | -0.25 → -0.29 | -0.09 → -0.09 | -0.20 | 9%raw 10% | 12% – 76% | 3 / 3 |
| @ NYG W | 36–24 | +14.5dog 2.5 | -0.09 → -0.15 | -0.25 → -0.24 | +0.09 | 72%raw 90% | 24% – 88% | 3 / 3 |
| MIA L | 10–15 | +5.0dog 10.0 | -0.20 → -0.11 | -0.05 → +0.03 | -0.14 | 17%raw 11% | 1% – 50% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 15–10 | -5.0fav 10.0 | -0.05 → -0.12 | -0.20 → -0.19 | +0.06 | 67%raw 89% | 50% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| DAL W | 34–30 | +7.0dog 3.0 | +0.14 → +0.20 | +0.24 → +0.25 | -0.05 | 37%raw 22% | 18% – 86% | 0 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 30–34 | -7.0fav 3.0 | +0.24 → +0.14 | +0.14 → +0.08 | +0.06 | 67%raw 78% | 14% – 82% | 0 / 0 |
| GB W | 17–14 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.02 → +0.04 | -0.04 → -0.01 | +0.06 | 66%raw 68% | 40% – 95% | 2 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 14–17 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.04 → -0.03 | +0.02 → -0.02 | -0.01 | 47%raw 32% | 5% – 60% | 2 / 2 |
| PIT L | 24–27 | -5.5fav 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.12 | +0.10 → +0.19 | -0.08 | 30%raw 41% | 4% – 72% | 2 / 2 |
| @ CLE W | 27–24 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.10 → +0.11 | +0.07 → +0.09 | +0.02 | 55%raw 59% | 28% – 96% | 2 / 2 |
| KC W | 30–27 | -1.5fav 4.5 | +0.15 → +0.14 | +0.03 → +0.12 | +0.01 | 54%raw 83% | 24% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 27–30 | +1.5dog 4.5 | +0.03 → +0.07 | +0.15 → +0.12 | -0.04 | 38%raw 17% | 3% – 76% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | NO | 21 | +0.512 | +0.507 | +0.005 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.15 | +1.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | TEN | 22 | +0.468 | +0.534 | -0.066 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.21 | +11.3 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | DET | 44 | +0.456 | +0.466 | -0.010 | +20.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.69 | +9.0 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | DEN | 29 | +0.383 | +0.279 | +0.103 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | -0.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | DAL | 31 | +0.354 | +0.482 | -0.128 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.43 | +15.1 |
| Drake Maye | NE | BUF | 39 | +0.307 | +0.283 | +0.024 | +12.0 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 1 | -5.4 | +0.44 | +1.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CIN | 28 | +0.294 | +0.332 | -0.038 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.2 | +0.45 | +12.3 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | HOU | 48 | +0.290 | +0.205 | +0.085 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.1 | +0.65 | +3.3 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | PIT | 35 | +0.282 | +0.262 | +0.019 | +9.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.27 | +3.8 |
| Jordan Love | GB | TB | 30 | +0.252 | +0.230 | +0.022 | +7.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | +5.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | KC | 50 | +0.237 | +0.196 | +0.042 | +11.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -3.0 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | JAX | 56 | +0.200 | +0.132 | +0.068 | +11.2 | 2 / 0 | -11.2 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.05 | +9.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CAR | 53 | +0.195 | +0.233 | -0.038 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.4 | +0.18 | -1.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 35 | +0.179 | +0.137 | +0.042 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -1.7 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.01 | +10.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CLE | 46 | +0.120 | +0.053 | +0.068 | +5.5 | 2 / 0 | -3.7 | 5 | -9.0 | -0.04 | -6.4 |
| Tyson Bagent | CHI | NYJ | 35 | +0.115 | +0.227 | -0.111 | +4.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -0.6 | +0.18 | +8.0 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | SF | 42 | +0.092 | +0.112 | -0.020 | +3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | -4.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | PHI | 52 | +0.045 | +0.021 | +0.024 | +2.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.10 | -2.5 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | ATL | 50 | +0.034 | +0.013 | +0.020 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.6 | -0.02 | -0.2 |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | ARI | 34 | +0.009 | +0.114 | -0.106 | +0.3 | 2 / 0 | -5.2 | 4 | -4.8 | +0.11 | +1.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 33 | +0.000 | +0.053 | -0.052 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.25 | -7.3 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | BAL | 33 | -0.014 | +0.013 | -0.027 | -0.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.7 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.21 | +6.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | SEA | 35 | -0.132 | -0.229 | +0.098 | -4.6 | 2 / 1 | -13.6 | 4 | -9.7 | -0.27 | -3.9 |
| Kyler Murray | MIN | MIA | 41 | -0.140 | -0.016 | -0.124 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.1 | +0.03 | +7.6 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | LAC | 25 | -0.152 | -0.207 | +0.055 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 3 | -1.8 | -0.04 | +0.3 |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | GB | 30 | -0.153 | -0.144 | -0.009 | -4.6 | 2 / 0 | -8.3 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.35 | +1.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LA | 31 | -0.247 | -0.263 | +0.016 | -7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -3.4 | -0.42 | -18.5 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | CHI | 18 | -0.273 | -0.270 | -0.003 | -4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.19 | -11.4 |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | WAS | IND | 34 | -0.312 | -0.300 | -0.012 | -10.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 1 | -2.7 | -0.10 | -11.8 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | WAS | 36 | -0.485 | -0.371 | -0.114 | -17.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.6 | 2 | -6.7 | -0.20 | -5.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | NYG | 37 | -0.514 | -0.491 | -0.024 | -19.0 | 3 / 0 | -16.6 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.50 | -2.4 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | MIN | 19 | -0.531 | -0.653 | +0.123 | -10.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 2 | -7.3 | -0.30 | -12.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.