Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC L | 6–22 | -8.5dog 7.5 | -0.31 → -0.29 | +0.08 → +0.05 | -0.33 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 2 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 22–6 | +8.5fav 7.5 | +0.08 → +0.13 | -0.31 → -0.24 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| CHI W | 31–23 | +6.5fav 1.5 | +0.04 → +0.05 | -0.31 → -0.30 | +0.35 | 98%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL L | 23–31 | -6.5dog 1.5 | -0.31 → -0.32 | +0.04 → -0.00 | -0.32 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 1 / 1 |
| CAR W | 25–14 | +8.0fav 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.17 → -0.15 | +0.28 | 96%raw 98% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI L | 14–25 | -8.0dog 3.0 | -0.17 → -0.21 | +0.13 → +0.14 | -0.36 | 2%raw 2% | 0% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| ARI W | 18–16 | +14.5dog 12.5 | -0.02 → +0.02 | -0.14 → -0.21 | +0.23 | 93%raw 84% | 33% – 91% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LA L | 16–18 | -14.5fav 12.5 | -0.14 → -0.21 | -0.02 → +0.00 | -0.21 | 9%raw 16% | 9% – 67% | 1 / 1 |
| HOU W | 34–31 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.22 → +0.28 | +0.17 → +0.12 | +0.16 | 86%raw 67% | 36% – 88% | 1 / 1 |
| @ JAX L | 31–34 | -5.5fav 2.5 | +0.17 → +0.23 | +0.22 → +0.24 | -0.00 | 50%raw 33% | 12% – 64% | 1 / 1 |
| WAS L | 17–23 | +1.5dog 7.5 | -0.01 → -0.01 | +0.21 → +0.14 | -0.15 | 16%raw 5% | 2% – 46% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 23–17 | -1.5fav 7.5 | +0.21 → +0.14 | -0.01 → -0.00 | +0.15 | 84%raw 95% | 54% – 98% | 1 / 0 |
| DAL L | 13–23 | -11.5fav 1.5 | -0.12 → -0.12 | +0.03 → -0.00 | -0.11 | 22%raw 11% | 0% – 46% | 2 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 23–13 | +11.5dog 1.5 | +0.03 → -0.07 | -0.12 → -0.20 | +0.13 | 81%raw 89% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| PIT W | 26–19 | +4.5fav 2.5 | -0.20 → -0.18 | -0.30 → -0.29 | +0.11 | 77%raw 80% | 4% – 90% | 1 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 19–26 | -4.5dog 2.5 | -0.30 → -0.31 | -0.20 → -0.19 | -0.12 | 21%raw 20% | 10% – 96% | 2 / 1 |
| SEA L | 14–17 | -5.5fav 2.5 | -0.10 → -0.05 | -0.14 → -0.14 | +0.09 | 72%raw 64% | 5% – 52% | 3 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 17–14 | +5.5dog 2.5 | -0.14 → -0.05 | -0.10 → -0.11 | +0.06 | 66%raw 36% | 48% – 95% | 0 / 3 |
| NYJ L | 19–26 | +0.5dog 7.5 | -0.04 → -0.01 | +0.01 → -0.04 | +0.03 | 57%raw 34% | 1% – 57% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NE W | 26–19 | -0.5fav 7.5 | +0.01 → -0.04 | -0.04 → +0.01 | -0.05 | 37%raw 66% | 43% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| BAL L | 10–13 | -6.0fav 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.06 | -0.12 → -0.03 | -0.02 | 44%raw 58% | 14% – 86% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CLE W | 13–10 | +6.0dog 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.13 | -0.09 → -0.14 | +0.01 | 52%raw 42% | 14% – 86% | 0 / 1 |
| BUF W | 33–30 | -2.5fav 5.5 | +0.17 → +0.16 | +0.10 → +0.18 | -0.03 | 43%raw 74% | 29% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 30–33 | +2.5dog 5.5 | +0.10 → +0.07 | +0.17 → +0.07 | +0.00 | 51%raw 26% | 1% – 71% | 1 / 0 |
| NO W | 34–27 | +5.5fav 1.5 | -0.03 → -0.07 | -0.06 → -0.06 | -0.01 | 47%raw 57% | 15% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ NYG L | 27–34 | -5.5dog 1.5 | -0.06 → -0.06 | -0.03 → +0.01 | -0.08 | 30%raw 43% | 0% – 85% | 3 / 1 |
| TEN W | 26–20 | +12.5dog 6.5 | -0.15 → -0.16 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.05 | 37%raw 36% | 8% – 96% | 1 / 3 |
| @ IND L | 20–26 | -12.5fav 6.5 | -0.10 → -0.17 | -0.15 → -0.05 | -0.12 | 21%raw 64% | 4% – 92% | 3 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | JAX | 34 | +0.485 | +0.408 | +0.077 | +16.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | +11.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 41 | +0.366 | +0.278 | +0.088 | +15.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | -5.0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | NYG | NO | 20 | +0.330 | +0.344 | -0.014 | +6.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.03 | +5.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | BUF | 41 | +0.301 | +0.280 | +0.021 | +12.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | -9.7 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | ATL | 40 | +0.294 | +0.266 | +0.029 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.42 | +15.3 |
| Drake Maye | NE | NYJ | 32 | +0.288 | +0.394 | -0.105 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -1.9 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | LV | 35 | +0.260 | +0.305 | -0.045 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.46 | +5.7 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | NE | 33 | +0.222 | +0.178 | +0.044 | +7.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.01 | +3.5 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | CLE | 34 | +0.207 | +0.137 | +0.071 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.08 | -1.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 30 | +0.155 | +0.092 | +0.063 | +4.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +9.4 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | PHI | 42 | +0.121 | +0.095 | +0.026 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.7 | +0.09 | -8.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | LA | 35 | +0.081 | +0.057 | +0.025 | +2.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.34 | +0.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | SF | 42 | +0.046 | +0.069 | -0.023 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.22 | +17.6 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | WAS | 31 | +0.027 | +0.118 | -0.092 | +0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.06 | +7.2 |
| Jordan Love | GB | DAL | 44 | -0.002 | +0.138 | -0.140 | -0.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.14 | -5.2 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | NYG | 30 | -0.022 | -0.017 | -0.005 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | -17.2 |
| Sam Darnold | SEA | DEN | 55 | -0.030 | -0.121 | +0.091 | -1.7 | 2 / 0 | -6.8 | 5 | -10.1 | -0.25 | -4.6 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | SEA | 29 | -0.113 | -0.210 | +0.097 | -3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.12 | -0.9 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | GB | 56 | -0.161 | -0.149 | -0.012 | -9.0 | 2 / 0 | -8.3 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.21 | -3.1 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | TEN | 47 | -0.168 | -0.085 | -0.082 | -7.9 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 6 | -7.9 | -0.34 | -8.0 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | IND | 22 | -0.170 | -0.161 | -0.009 | -3.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | -20.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 37 | -0.181 | -0.069 | -0.112 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.0 | +0.04 | +4.2 |
| Tanner McKee | PHI | CAR | 48 | -0.232 | -0.180 | -0.052 | -11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.38 | -6.4 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | CHI | 40 | -0.249 | -0.246 | -0.003 | -10.0 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.19 | -7.3 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | BAL | 31 | -0.255 | -0.222 | -0.033 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.4 | +0.00 | -0.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | TB | 52 | -0.259 | -0.264 | +0.005 | -13.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.22 | +5.6 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 41 | -0.315 | -0.341 | +0.025 | -12.9 | 1 / 0 | -7.9 | 4 | -4.4 | -0.29 | -9.9 |
| Jameis Winston | NYG | NO | 30 | -0.415 | -0.400 | -0.014 | -12.4 | 2 / 0 | -11.0 | 4 | -5.4 | -0.11 | -15.6 |
| Jalon Daniels | TB | PIT | 48 | -0.455 | -0.454 | -0.002 | -21.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 5 | -6.1 | -1.49 | -15.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.