Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL W | 41–23 | +15.0fav 3.0 | +0.32 → +0.33 | -0.24 → -0.26 | +0.59 | 100%raw 100% | 30% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ IND L | 23–41 | -15.0dog 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.26 | +0.32 → +0.30 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 70% | 2 / 1 |
| DEN L | 10–31 | -18.5dog 2.5 | -0.34 → -0.32 | +0.16 → +0.13 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 31–10 | +18.5fav 2.5 | +0.16 → +0.22 | -0.34 → -0.35 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| SF W | 27–7 | +23.5dog 3.5 | +0.18 → +0.23 | -0.26 → -0.34 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 27% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 7–27 | -23.5fav 3.5 | -0.26 → -0.28 | +0.18 → +0.11 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 73% | 2 / 1 |
| CLE L | 10–34 | -15.5dog 8.5 | -0.18 → -0.14 | +0.34 → +0.30 | -0.44 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 53% | 2 / 0 |
| @ JAX W | 34–10 | +15.5fav 8.5 | +0.34 → +0.40 | -0.18 → -0.10 | +0.50 | 100%raw 100% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| ARI W | 26–14 | +20.5dog 8.5 | +0.14 → +0.20 | -0.24 → -0.17 | +0.37 | 98%raw 99% | 31% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 14–26 | -20.5fav 8.5 | -0.24 → -0.32 | +0.14 → +0.17 | -0.49 | 0%raw 1% | 0% – 69% | 2 / 0 |
| NE L | 10–13 | +0.0dog 3.0 | -0.11 → -0.02 | +0.07 → +0.06 | -0.08 | 29%raw 8% | 5% – 83% | 3 / 0 |
| @ SEA W | 13–10 | +0.0fav 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.09 | -0.11 → -0.17 | +0.26 | 95%raw 92% | 17% – 95% | 0 / 3 |
| BUF W | 36–31 | +3.5fav 1.5 | +0.25 → +0.32 | +0.07 → +0.07 | +0.24 | 94%raw 92% | 26% – 98% | 0 / 2 |
| @ HOU L | 31–36 | -3.5dog 1.5 | +0.07 → +0.04 | +0.25 → +0.15 | -0.11 | 23%raw 8% | 2% – 74% | 2 / 0 |
| CHI W | 59–37 | +19.0fav 3.0 | +0.41 → +0.39 | +0.18 → +0.19 | +0.20 | 90%raw 96% | 22% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CAR L | 37–59 | -19.0dog 3.0 | +0.18 → +0.19 | +0.41 → +0.39 | -0.19 | 10%raw 4% | 0% – 78% | 2 / 1 |
| TB L | 27–33 | -2.5dog 3.5 | -0.19 → -0.23 | -0.00 → -0.03 | -0.21 | 9%raw 8% | 1% – 55% | 4 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 33–27 | +2.5fav 3.5 | -0.00 → +0.02 | -0.19 → -0.17 | +0.19 | 90%raw 92% | 45% – 99% | 1 / 4 |
| GB L | 22–39 | -15.5dog 1.5 | -0.17 → -0.08 | -0.04 → +0.04 | -0.12 | 20%raw 13% | 0% – 91% | 2 / 1 |
| @ MIN W | 39–22 | +15.5fav 1.5 | -0.04 → -0.03 | -0.17 → -0.22 | +0.19 | 90%raw 87% | 9% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| NYJ W | 23–10 | +14.5dog 1.5 | +0.17 → +0.12 | -0.12 → -0.02 | +0.14 | 82%raw 98% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TEN L | 10–23 | -14.5fav 1.5 | -0.12 → -0.17 | +0.17 → +0.23 | -0.40 | 1%raw 2% | 0% – 57% | 0 / 0 |
| DAL L | 20–28 | -11.0fav 3.0 | +0.22 → +0.20 | +0.37 → +0.39 | -0.19 | 11%raw 12% | 0% – 45% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 28–20 | +11.0dog 3.0 | +0.37 → +0.28 | +0.22 → +0.16 | +0.12 | 79%raw 88% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA L | 13–27 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.24 → -0.27 | -0.04 → +0.04 | -0.31 | 3%raw 6% | 0% – 48% | 2 / 2 |
| @ LV W | 27–13 | +11.0fav 3.0 | -0.04 → -0.12 | -0.24 → -0.22 | +0.11 | 77%raw 94% | 52% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| NO L | 30–31 | +6.0dog 7.0 | -0.02 → -0.06 | +0.00 → -0.07 | +0.01 | 53%raw 43% | 4% – 90% | 3 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 31–30 | -6.0fav 7.0 | +0.00 → -0.00 | -0.02 → +0.03 | -0.03 | 41%raw 57% | 10% – 96% | 1 / 3 |
| ATL L | 13–20 | -0.5dog 6.5 | -0.32 → -0.33 | -0.30 → -0.30 | -0.03 | 41%raw 44% | 1% – 64% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 20–13 | +0.5fav 6.5 | -0.30 → -0.31 | -0.32 → -0.31 | +0.00 | 51%raw 56% | 36% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| WAS L | 22–24 | +4.0dog 6.0 | +0.07 → +0.07 | +0.07 → +0.11 | -0.03 | 41%raw 51% | 4% – 56% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 24–22 | -4.0fav 6.0 | +0.07 → +0.00 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.08 | 29%raw 49% | 44% – 96% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CLE | 24 | +0.885 | +0.793 | +0.092 | +21.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.23 | +22.3 |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG | DAL | 31 | +0.585 | +0.707 | -0.122 | +18.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -0.9 | +0.53 | +13.4 |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | CAR | 31 | +0.576 | +0.599 | -0.023 | +17.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.35 | +16.6 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | HOU | 32 | +0.550 | +0.454 | +0.096 | +17.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.65 | +8.1 |
| Bryce Young | CAR | CHI | 39 | +0.418 | +0.398 | +0.020 | +16.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.14 | +6.6 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | IND | 26 | +0.387 | +0.376 | +0.011 | +10.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 2 | -7.4 | +0.18 | +4.8 |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | TEN | 24 | +0.339 | +0.406 | -0.067 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +12.8 |
| Drew Lock | SEA | NE | 23 | +0.325 | +0.280 | +0.045 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.25 | +4.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI | LAC | 38 | +0.308 | +0.237 | +0.071 | +11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.45 | +4.6 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 34 | +0.308 | +0.305 | +0.002 | +10.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.10 | +7.7 |
| Carson Wentz | MIN | GB | 23 | +0.213 | +0.217 | -0.004 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.08 | -7.3 |
| Brock Purdy | SF | LA | 34 | +0.172 | +0.142 | +0.030 | +5.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.32 | +0.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | NO | 40 | +0.139 | +0.146 | -0.007 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.03 | -2.9 |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | PHI | 36 | +0.136 | +0.108 | +0.027 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.10 | -3.4 |
| Jordan Love | GB | MIN | 46 | +0.080 | -0.059 | +0.139 | +3.7 | 1 / 1 | -12.5 | 4 | -9.4 | +0.11 | -9.7 |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU | BUF | 41 | +0.051 | +0.036 | +0.015 | +2.1 | 0 / 2 | -7.0 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.04 | +3.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 29 | +0.015 | -0.079 | +0.094 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.13 | -11.9 |
| Drake Maye | NE | SEA | 36 | -0.022 | -0.128 | +0.106 | -0.8 | 3 / 0 | -8.5 | 3 | -2.0 | -0.38 | +6.0 |
| Tyler Shough | NO | DET | 61 | -0.043 | -0.016 | -0.027 | -2.6 | 2 / 1 | -14.8 | 5 | -10.5 | -0.30 | -1.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 28 | -0.050 | +0.045 | -0.095 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.08 | +0.9 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | TB | 36 | -0.060 | -0.073 | +0.013 | -2.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.5 | 1 | -2.8 | +0.01 | +6.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | LV | MIA | 30 | -0.110 | +0.013 | -0.123 | -3.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +0.7 |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE | JAX | 27 | -0.145 | -0.206 | +0.061 | -3.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 5 | -8.6 | -0.22 | +10.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT | ATL | 42 | -0.174 | -0.187 | +0.013 | -7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.34 | +1.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | CIN | 32 | -0.226 | -0.169 | -0.057 | -7.2 | 0 / 2 | -11.8 | 4 | -15.4 | -0.38 | +14.0 |
| Malik Willis | MIA | LV | 32 | -0.230 | -0.172 | -0.058 | -7.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 5 | -8.5 | -0.02 | -8.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 25 | -0.254 | -0.224 | -0.029 | -6.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.12 | -4.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | ARI | 30 | -0.303 | -0.187 | -0.116 | -9.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.04 | -6.2 |
| Daniel Jones | IND | BAL | 33 | -0.326 | -0.291 | -0.035 | -10.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.23 | -5.1 |
| Cam Ward | TEN | NYJ | 35 | -0.333 | -0.210 | -0.123 | -11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.24 | +0.4 |
| Bo Nix | DEN | KC | 32 | -0.430 | -0.449 | +0.020 | -13.7 | 1 / 1 | -6.6 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.15 | -7.8 |
| Cooper Rush | ATL | PIT | 26 | -0.617 | -0.606 | -0.011 | -16.1 | 2 / 0 | -13.0 | 4 | -7.0 | -0.59 | -10.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.