Game quality

What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.

View Games by week Quarterbacks Teams Season 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Games

Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.

Team	Score	vs line	Off EPA/playraw → adj	Def EPA/playraw → adj	Adj margin	Win exp	Win prob range	Turnoverslost / forced
SF W	13–10	+8.5dog 5.5	-0.26 → -0.26	-0.12 → -0.24	-0.02	44%raw 14%	11% – 77%	1 / 1
@ GB L	10–13	-8.5fav 5.5	-0.12 → -0.08	-0.26 → -0.29	+0.21	91%raw 86%	23% – 89%	1 / 1
LA W	30–27	+5.5dog 2.5	-0.13 → -0.06	-0.15 → -0.24	+0.18	88%raw 58%	43% – 100%	4 / 2
@ TB L	27–30	-5.5fav 2.5	-0.15 → -0.08	-0.13 → -0.16	+0.08	72%raw 42%	0% – 57%	2 / 4
BUF L	36–42	-3.5dog 2.5	+0.39 → +0.37	+0.38 → +0.27	+0.10	76%raw 52%	15% – 86%	0 / 0
@ KC W	42–36	+3.5fav 2.5	+0.38 → +0.46	+0.39 → +0.28	+0.18	88%raw 48%	14% – 85%	0 / 0
CIN W	19–16	+7.0dog 4.0	-0.08 → -0.09	-0.15 → -0.19	+0.10	76%raw 71%	33% – 85%	1 / 3
@ TEN L	16–19	-7.0fav 4.0	-0.15 → -0.16	-0.08 → -0.09	-0.07	31%raw 29%	15% – 67%	3 / 1

Quarterbacks this week

Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.

Quarterback	Team	Opp	Dropbacks	Adj EPA/db	Raw EPA/db	Schedule	Total adj EPA	INT / FL	Turnover EPA	Sacks	Sack EPA	WPA	CPOE
Patrick Mahomes	KC	BUF	46	+0.549	+0.464	+0.085	+25.2	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-2.2	+1.39	+7.5
Matthew Stafford	LA	TB	39	+0.506	+0.432	+0.074	+19.7	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-1.9	+0.64	+13.2
Josh Allen	BUF	KC	40	+0.440	+0.455	-0.015	+17.6	0 / 0	+0.0	2	-3.4	+0.93	+5.9
Aaron Rodgers	GB	SF	33	-0.031	-0.044	+0.013	-1.0	0 / 0	+0.0	5	-7.1	-0.11	+3.4
Joe Burrow	CIN	TEN	45	-0.131	-0.111	-0.020	-5.9	1 / 0	-6.4	9	-14.2	-0.10	+6.4
Tom Brady	TB	LA	57	-0.151	-0.245	+0.094	-8.6	1 / 1	-8.6	3	-9.1	-0.38	-9.7
Ryan Tannehill	TEN	CIN	25	-0.199	-0.178	-0.021	-5.0	3 / 0	-12.1	1	-2.1	-0.12	-0.3
Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	GB	23	-0.311	-0.326	+0.015	-7.2	1 / 0	-3.5	4	-7.0	-0.13	-9.3

Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it; 24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do (team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up: backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.