Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA W | 20–3 | +14.0fav 3.0 | -0.11 → -0.02 | -0.68 → -0.66 | +0.64 | 100%raw 100% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NO L | 3–20 | -14.0dog 3.0 | -0.68 → -0.66 | -0.11 → -0.07 | -0.59 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 1 |
| WAS L | 14–56 | -31.5dog 10.5 | -0.34 → -0.30 | +0.34 → +0.33 | -0.63 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 52% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 56–14 | +31.5fav 10.5 | +0.34 → +0.34 | -0.34 → -0.29 | +0.64 | 100%raw 100% | 48% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| TB W | 32–6 | +14.5fav 11.5 | +0.20 → +0.23 | -0.33 → -0.26 | +0.49 | 100%raw 100% | 27% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CAR L | 6–32 | -14.5dog 11.5 | -0.33 → -0.27 | +0.20 → +0.12 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 73% | 1 / 0 |
| PIT L | 10–36 | -15.5dog 10.5 | -0.28 → -0.32 | +0.23 → +0.11 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 36–10 | +15.5fav 10.5 | +0.23 → +0.25 | -0.28 → -0.24 | +0.49 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| BAL L | 21–41 | -12.5dog 7.5 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.50 → +0.51 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 60% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 41–21 | +12.5fav 7.5 | +0.50 → +0.51 | +0.10 → +0.08 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| LAC L | 29–41 | -25.5fav 13.5 | +0.07 → -0.01 | +0.31 → +0.39 | -0.40 | 1%raw 3% | 0% – 64% | 3 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 41–29 | +25.5dog 13.5 | +0.31 → +0.31 | +0.07 → +0.02 | +0.28 | 96%raw 97% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| BUF W | 33–21 | +13.0dog 1.0 | +0.33 → +0.34 | +0.09 → +0.07 | +0.27 | 95%raw 96% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NE L | 21–33 | -13.0fav 1.0 | +0.09 → +0.16 | +0.33 → +0.22 | -0.06 | 34%raw 4% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| NYG L | 10–34 | -13.0dog 11.0 | -0.36 → -0.38 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 64% | 2 / 0 |
| @ PHI W | 34–10 | +13.0fav 11.0 | +0.02 → +0.01 | -0.36 → -0.26 | +0.27 | 95%raw 99% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| DEN L | 13–17 | -5.0fav 1.0 | -0.25 → -0.31 | -0.09 → -0.09 | -0.22 | 8%raw 10% | 2% – 67% | 0 / 3 |
| @ LV W | 17–13 | +5.0dog 1.0 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.25 → -0.23 | +0.13 | 81%raw 90% | 33% – 98% | 3 / 0 |
| CLE L | 22–24 | +5.5dog 7.5 | +0.17 → +0.18 | +0.16 → +0.06 | +0.13 | 80%raw 52% | 4% – 64% | 4 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 24–22 | -5.5fav 7.5 | +0.16 → +0.16 | +0.17 → +0.15 | +0.01 | 51%raw 48% | 36% – 96% | 0 / 4 |
| LA W | 30–23 | +3.5fav 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.05 | -0.06 → -0.09 | +0.04 | 60%raw 56% | 45% – 99% | 3 / 1 |
| @ MIN L | 23–30 | -3.5dog 3.5 | -0.06 → +0.02 | -0.04 → -0.07 | +0.09 | 73%raw 44% | 1% – 55% | 1 / 3 |
| IND W | 22–16 | +9.0dog 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.11 | +0.06 → +0.04 | +0.07 | 69%raw 54% | 34% – 99% | 0 / 0 |
| @ ARI L | 16–22 | -9.0fav 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.08 | +0.07 → +0.03 | +0.05 | 63%raw 46% | 1% – 66% | 0 / 0 |
| SF L | 17–20 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.08 → +0.08 | +0.06 → +0.02 | +0.05 | 65%raw 57% | 8% – 81% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TEN W | 20–17 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.06 → +0.10 | +0.08 → +0.05 | +0.05 | 63%raw 43% | 19% – 92% | 0 / 2 |
| CHI W | 25–24 | +8.0dog 7.0 | +0.06 → +0.05 | +0.15 → +0.14 | -0.09 | 28%raw 22% | 5% – 91% | 0 / 0 |
| @ SEA L | 24–25 | -8.0fav 7.0 | +0.15 → +0.15 | +0.06 → +0.14 | +0.01 | 52%raw 78% | 9% – 95% | 0 / 0 |
| DET L | 16–20 | +3.5dog 7.5 | +0.09 → +0.04 | +0.08 → +0.15 | -0.11 | 23%raw 51% | 5% – 63% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL W | 20–16 | -3.5fav 7.5 | +0.08 → -0.01 | +0.09 → +0.13 | -0.15 | 16%raw 49% | 37% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
| JAX L | 21–26 | -2.5dog 2.5 | +0.12 → +0.04 | +0.15 → +0.25 | -0.20 | 9%raw 42% | 3% – 59% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYJ W | 26–21 | +2.5fav 2.5 | +0.15 → +0.06 | +0.12 → +0.20 | -0.14 | 17%raw 58% | 41% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 49 | +0.669 | +0.662 | +0.006 | +32.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.50 | +14.2 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | LAC | 28 | +0.578 | +0.572 | +0.006 | +16.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.46 | +7.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | PIT | 32 | +0.561 | +0.497 | +0.065 | +18.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.6 | +0.18 | +15.1 |
| Kyle Allen | WAS | DAL | 11 | +0.518 | +0.448 | +0.071 | +5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.00 | +7.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 48 | +0.480 | +0.430 | +0.050 | +23.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +4.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 42 | +0.454 | +0.448 | +0.007 | +19.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.20 | +7.5 |
| Josh Johnson | BAL | CIN | 41 | +0.341 | +0.349 | -0.008 | +14.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.27 | +7.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | CAR | 31 | +0.330 | +0.323 | +0.007 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +2.8 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | ARI | 30 | +0.328 | +0.299 | +0.030 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.44 | -2.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NO | 28 | +0.279 | +0.175 | +0.103 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.23 | +3.0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | SF | 33 | +0.255 | +0.235 | +0.020 | +8.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.3 | +0.28 | +11.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | CLE | 34 | +0.181 | +0.168 | +0.012 | +6.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +3.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | LA | 40 | +0.179 | +0.078 | +0.101 | +7.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.06 | +6.9 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | DET | 27 | +0.174 | +0.314 | -0.139 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.23 | +9.0 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | HOU | 38 | +0.147 | +0.239 | -0.092 | +5.6 | 2 / 0 | -12.5 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.31 | +8.0 |
| Nick Foles | CHI | SEA | 40 | +0.118 | +0.138 | -0.021 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.2 | +0.42 | +2.5 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | CHI | 29 | +0.077 | +0.063 | +0.014 | +2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.09 | -3.6 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | TEN | 37 | +0.075 | +0.091 | -0.016 | +2.8 | 2 / 0 | -11.5 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.11 | +3.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYG | 30 | +0.038 | +0.043 | -0.006 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.07 | -3.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NYJ | 40 | -0.009 | +0.103 | -0.111 | -0.4 | 0 / 1 | -7.6 | 1 | -7.6 | -0.10 | +11.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | GB | 42 | -0.021 | -0.044 | +0.023 | -0.9 | 4 / 0 | -12.9 | 5 | -7.1 | -0.52 | -6.9 |
| Mac Jones | NE | BUF | 33 | -0.023 | -0.094 | +0.071 | -0.7 | 2 / 0 | -4.9 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.18 | -18.9 |
| Tim Boyle | DET | ATL | 34 | -0.043 | +0.029 | -0.072 | -1.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.21 | +1.2 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | IND | 43 | -0.081 | -0.088 | +0.007 | -3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -1.4 |
| Drew Lock | DEN | LV | 24 | -0.163 | -0.094 | -0.068 | -3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.11 | +2.0 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | JAX | 23 | -0.163 | -0.033 | -0.130 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.06 | -3.0 |
| Derek Carr | LV | DEN | 27 | -0.190 | -0.193 | +0.003 | -5.1 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 2 | -7.2 | -0.21 | +5.3 |
| Mike Glennon | NYG | PHI | 27 | -0.212 | -0.180 | -0.032 | -5.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -0.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | MIN | 37 | -0.257 | -0.264 | +0.007 | -9.5 | 3 / 0 | -13.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.20 | -10.1 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | TB | 36 | -0.264 | -0.320 | +0.055 | -9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.04 | -14.4 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | KC | 37 | -0.320 | -0.287 | -0.033 | -11.9 | 1 / 1 | -10.6 | 2 | -8.7 | -0.17 | -3.8 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | TB | 16 | -0.552 | -0.607 | +0.055 | -8.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 3 | -5.9 | -0.18 | -14.2 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | DAL | 26 | -0.811 | -0.882 | +0.071 | -21.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 4 | -4.7 | -0.17 | -30.9 |
| Jake Fromm | NYG | PHI | 19 | -0.834 | -0.803 | -0.032 | -15.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.42 | -32.5 |
| Ian Book | NO | MIA | 28 | -1.029 | -1.062 | +0.032 | -28.8 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 8 | -16.7 | -0.48 | -7.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.