Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND W | 31–0 | +21.0fav 10.0 | +0.17 → +0.09 | -0.62 → -0.57 | +0.67 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ HOU L | 0–31 | -21.0dog 10.0 | -0.62 → -0.62 | +0.17 → +0.13 | -0.75 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 1 |
| JAX L | 7–37 | -16.0dog 14.0 | -0.38 → -0.31 | +0.24 → +0.22 | -0.53 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 37–7 | +16.0fav 14.0 | +0.24 → +0.16 | -0.38 → -0.32 | +0.48 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NE W | 14–10 | +7.0dog 3.0 | -0.02 → +0.05 | -0.19 → -0.31 | +0.36 | 98%raw 92% | 29% – 95% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BUF L | 10–14 | -7.0fav 3.0 | -0.19 → -0.19 | -0.02 → -0.04 | -0.15 | 15%raw 8% | 5% – 71% | 1 / 0 |
| LAC W | 41–22 | +21.5dog 2.5 | -0.00 → -0.01 | -0.28 → -0.29 | +0.28 | 96%raw 98% | 39% – 100% | 3 / 4 |
| @ CIN L | 22–41 | -21.5fav 2.5 | -0.28 → -0.30 | -0.00 → -0.05 | -0.26 | 5%raw 2% | 0% – 61% | 4 / 3 |
| ARI W | 33–22 | +3.5fav 7.5 | +0.14 → +0.13 | -0.19 → -0.12 | +0.25 | 94%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ CHI L | 22–33 | -3.5dog 7.5 | -0.19 → -0.16 | +0.14 → +0.12 | -0.28 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 4 / 0 |
| DAL W | 27–17 | +4.0fav 6.0 | -0.11 → -0.02 | -0.27 → -0.24 | +0.22 | 92%raw 90% | 38% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| @ NO L | 17–27 | -4.0dog 6.0 | -0.27 → -0.23 | -0.11 → -0.14 | -0.09 | 27%raw 10% | 0% – 62% | 4 / 1 |
| TB W | 30–17 | +2.0fav 11.0 | +0.21 → +0.16 | -0.05 → +0.01 | +0.16 | 85%raw 97% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ATL L | 17–30 | -2.0dog 11.0 | -0.05 → +0.02 | +0.21 → +0.13 | -0.11 | 23%raw 3% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| SF L | 23–30 | -10.0fav 3.0 | +0.00 → -0.01 | -0.06 → -0.09 | +0.07 | 70%raw 70% | 1% – 81% | 2 / 3 |
| @ SEA W | 30–23 | +10.0dog 3.0 | -0.06 → -0.02 | +0.00 → -0.03 | +0.01 | 52%raw 30% | 19% – 99% | 3 / 2 |
| DEN L | 9–22 | -4.5dog 8.5 | -0.12 → -0.16 | -0.04 → -0.16 | +0.01 | 52%raw 24% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 1 |
| @ KC W | 22–9 | +4.5fav 8.5 | -0.04 → -0.04 | -0.12 → -0.10 | +0.05 | 64%raw 76% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| BAL L | 19–20 | -5.0fav 4.0 | +0.07 → +0.08 | +0.10 → +0.15 | -0.06 | 33%raw 41% | 7% – 83% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 20–19 | +5.0dog 4.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.07 → +0.05 | +0.04 | 61%raw 59% | 17% – 93% | 0 / 1 |
| PHI W | 33–18 | +10.0fav 5.0 | +0.23 → +0.15 | +0.02 → +0.12 | +0.03 | 59%raw 94% | 30% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 18–33 | -10.0dog 5.0 | +0.02 → +0.02 | +0.23 → +0.24 | -0.22 | 8%raw 6% | 0% – 70% | 1 / 0 |
| MIN L | 27–29 | -9.0fav 7.0 | +0.09 → -0.01 | -0.07 → -0.03 | +0.02 | 56%raw 90% | 6% – 80% | 1 / 2 |
| @ DET W | 29–27 | +9.0dog 7.0 | -0.07 → -0.08 | +0.09 → +0.07 | -0.15 | 15%raw 10% | 20% – 94% | 2 / 1 |
| NYG L | 9–20 | -4.5dog 6.5 | -0.16 → -0.13 | -0.03 → +0.01 | -0.14 | 18%raw 14% | 0% – 56% | 1 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 20–9 | +4.5fav 6.5 | -0.03 → -0.05 | -0.16 → -0.06 | +0.01 | 53%raw 86% | 44% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| WAS W | 17–15 | +3.0dog 1.0 | +0.02 → -0.02 | -0.00 → +0.00 | -0.03 | 43%raw 58% | 36% – 82% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LV L | 15–17 | -3.0fav 1.0 | -0.00 → -0.01 | +0.02 → +0.08 | -0.09 | 26%raw 42% | 18% – 64% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | ARI | CHI | 16 | +0.502 | +0.478 | +0.024 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.18 | +1.6 |
| Gardner Minshew | PHI | NYJ | 27 | +0.424 | +0.526 | -0.102 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.39 | +21.2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | BAL | 33 | +0.277 | +0.281 | -0.004 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | +0.47 | +4.4 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | CIN | 39 | +0.276 | +0.285 | -0.008 | +10.8 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 4 | -6.0 | +0.01 | +14.0 |
| Tom Brady | TB | ATL | 51 | +0.240 | +0.307 | -0.067 | +12.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.55 | +2.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | JAX | 39 | +0.205 | +0.334 | -0.129 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.11 | +1.9 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | LV | 31 | +0.117 | +0.178 | -0.061 | +3.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.29 | +7.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | PIT | 45 | +0.114 | +0.058 | +0.056 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 7 | -8.3 | +0.03 | -5.9 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 42 | +0.112 | +0.097 | +0.015 | +4.7 | 1 / 1 | -8.2 | 3 | -7.7 | +0.62 | -3.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYG | 43 | +0.092 | +0.096 | -0.005 | +4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.25 | +4.3 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | TB | 46 | +0.050 | -0.015 | +0.065 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.06 | +4.8 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | SEA | 31 | +0.033 | +0.056 | -0.023 | +1.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 1 | -0.3 | -0.03 | -2.3 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | HOU | 23 | +0.019 | +0.113 | -0.094 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.03 | +5.4 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | SF | 41 | +0.010 | -0.003 | +0.013 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 4 | -6.9 | -0.21 | +14.2 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | PHI | 40 | +0.005 | +0.026 | -0.022 | +0.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.09 | -3.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | LA | 30 | +0.001 | -0.097 | +0.098 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.10 | -19.7 |
| Derek Carr | LV | WAS | 41 | -0.022 | -0.015 | -0.007 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.31 | +6.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | DET | 44 | -0.044 | +0.101 | -0.145 | -1.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.7 | 3 | -9.1 | +0.14 | +6.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DEN | 30 | -0.081 | -0.086 | +0.005 | -2.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.04 | -17.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NO | 41 | -0.107 | -0.204 | +0.097 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.05 | -2.6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | LAC | 46 | -0.141 | -0.130 | -0.010 | -6.5 | 2 / 1 | -12.8 | 6 | -13.8 | -0.13 | +0.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 32 | -0.183 | -0.221 | +0.038 | -5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.52 | -8.7 |
| Mike Glennon | NYG | MIA | 45 | -0.225 | -0.276 | +0.051 | -10.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.37 | -4.3 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | KC | 42 | -0.292 | -0.260 | -0.032 | -12.3 | 2 / 0 | -13.6 | 1 | -2.5 | -0.31 | -9.2 |
| Andy Dalton | CHI | ARI | 45 | -0.327 | -0.340 | +0.013 | -14.7 | 4 / 0 | -25.3 | 3 | -3.4 | -0.40 | -5.6 |
| Taysom Hill | NO | DAL | 43 | -0.441 | -0.514 | +0.073 | -19.0 | 4 / 0 | -21.3 | 2 | -4.6 | -0.45 | -23.6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | HOU | IND | 15 | -0.681 | -0.674 | -0.007 | -10.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.29 | -30.7 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | IND | 16 | -0.774 | -0.767 | -0.007 | -12.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.01 | -25.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.