Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU L | 0–40 | -21.0dog 19.0 | -0.83 → -0.79 | +0.12 → +0.01 | -0.79 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 57% | 5 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 40–0 | +21.0fav 19.0 | +0.12 → +0.04 | -0.83 → -0.79 | +0.83 | 100%raw 100% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| ARI W | 37–20 | +20.5dog 3.5 | +0.31 → +0.39 | +0.01 → -0.02 | +0.41 | 99%raw 98% | 32% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 20–37 | -20.5fav 3.5 | +0.01 → +0.04 | +0.31 → +0.29 | -0.25 | 6%raw 2% | 0% – 68% | 2 / 0 |
| BAL W | 23–7 | +17.0dog 1.0 | +0.10 → +0.10 | -0.22 → -0.20 | +0.30 | 97%raw 99% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DEN L | 7–23 | -17.0fav 1.0 | -0.22 → -0.24 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.32 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 71% | 1 / 0 |
| IND W | 27–17 | +12.5dog 2.5 | +0.19 → +0.23 | -0.10 → -0.06 | +0.29 | 96%raw 98% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ MIA L | 17–27 | -12.5fav 2.5 | -0.10 → -0.08 | +0.19 → +0.15 | -0.23 | 7%raw 2% | 0% – 71% | 1 / 0 |
| KC W | 42–30 | +4.5fav 7.5 | +0.53 → +0.54 | +0.26 → +0.27 | +0.27 | 96%raw 98% | 34% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PHI L | 30–42 | -4.5dog 7.5 | +0.26 → +0.23 | +0.53 → +0.42 | -0.19 | 11%raw 2% | 0% – 66% | 0 / 1 |
| LV L | 14–28 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.23 → -0.26 | +0.05 → +0.00 | -0.26 | 5%raw 2% | 0% – 46% | 1 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 28–14 | +11.0fav 3.0 | +0.05 → +0.00 | -0.23 → -0.23 | +0.24 | 93%raw 98% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| TB W | 19–17 | -4.0fav 6.0 | +0.10 → +0.11 | -0.08 → -0.11 | +0.22 | 92%raw 92% | 28% – 94% | 0 / 2 |
| @ NE L | 17–19 | +4.0dog 6.0 | -0.08 → -0.01 | +0.10 → +0.02 | -0.03 | 41%raw 8% | 6% – 72% | 2 / 0 |
| CLE W | 14–7 | +6.0fav 1.0 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.26 → -0.29 | +0.20 | 90%raw 92% | 20% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ MIN L | 7–14 | -6.0dog 1.0 | -0.26 → -0.28 | -0.09 → -0.11 | -0.17 | 13%raw 8% | 1% – 80% | 1 / 0 |
| CAR L | 28–36 | -3.5dog 4.5 | +0.08 → +0.13 | +0.30 → +0.29 | -0.15 | 15%raw 5% | 0% – 62% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DAL W | 36–28 | +3.5fav 4.5 | +0.30 → +0.33 | +0.08 → +0.17 | +0.17 | 87%raw 95% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| SEA W | 28–21 | +9.5dog 2.5 | -0.07 → -0.03 | +0.07 → +0.04 | -0.07 | 31%raw 13% | 15% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ SF L | 21–28 | -9.5fav 2.5 | +0.07 → +0.06 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.15 | 85%raw 87% | 0% – 85% | 1 / 0 |
| NYG W | 27–21 | +13.5dog 7.5 | +0.22 → +0.32 | +0.13 → +0.17 | +0.15 | 85%raw 79% | 3% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 21–27 | -13.5fav 7.5 | +0.13 → +0.12 | +0.22 → +0.34 | -0.23 | 7%raw 21% | 7% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| PIT L | 17–27 | -3.5dog 6.5 | -0.14 → -0.14 | +0.04 → -0.07 | -0.07 | 32%raw 8% | 0% – 63% | 2 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 27–17 | +3.5fav 6.5 | +0.04 → +0.05 | -0.14 → -0.10 | +0.15 | 84%raw 92% | 37% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| DET L | 14–24 | -7.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.07 | +0.19 → +0.27 | -0.34 | 2%raw 3% | 0% – 49% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CHI W | 24–14 | +7.0fav 3.0 | +0.19 → +0.10 | -0.05 → -0.00 | +0.10 | 76%raw 97% | 51% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| WAS W | 34–30 | +3.0fav 1.0 | +0.28 → +0.24 | +0.12 → +0.19 | +0.06 | 65%raw 90% | 8% – 85% | 0 / 0 |
| @ ATL L | 30–34 | -3.0dog 1.0 | +0.12 → +0.12 | +0.28 → +0.35 | -0.23 | 7%raw 10% | 15% – 92% | 0 / 0 |
| TEN L | 24–27 | -8.5fav 5.5 | +0.01 → -0.07 | +0.03 → +0.13 | -0.20 | 10%raw 44% | 1% – 82% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NYJ W | 27–24 | +8.5dog 5.5 | +0.03 → +0.03 | +0.01 → -0.03 | +0.05 | 65%raw 56% | 18% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| JAX L | 21–24 | +4.5dog 7.5 | +0.18 → +0.18 | +0.33 → +0.33 | -0.15 | 15%raw 12% | 17% – 92% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 24–21 | -4.5fav 7.5 | +0.33 → +0.25 | +0.18 → +0.26 | -0.01 | 46%raw 88% | 8% – 83% | 0 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | PHI | 31 | +0.729 | +0.733 | -0.005 | +22.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.53 | +17.0 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | NO | 40 | +0.520 | +0.409 | +0.111 | +20.8 | 1 / 0 | -0.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.83 | +8.7 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LA | 35 | +0.508 | +0.398 | +0.110 | +17.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.37 | +10.5 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | NYG | 23 | +0.478 | +0.476 | +0.002 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.39 | -0.9 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | ATL | 35 | +0.455 | +0.517 | -0.061 | +15.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.88 | +3.5 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | JAX | 33 | +0.409 | +0.533 | -0.124 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.89 | +10.7 |
| Trey Lance | SF | SEA | 19 | +0.394 | +0.415 | -0.020 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.05 | -12.8 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | MIA | 34 | +0.357 | +0.292 | +0.065 | +12.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.04 | +13.5 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | WAS | 43 | +0.289 | +0.289 | +0.000 | +12.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.24 | -1.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | CAR | 24 | +0.285 | +0.276 | +0.009 | +6.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -6.2 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | DEN | 40 | +0.273 | +0.260 | +0.013 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.7 | +0.23 | +0.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | KC | 51 | +0.250 | +0.271 | -0.021 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.39 | +8.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | CIN | 25 | +0.247 | +0.256 | -0.009 | +6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.19 | +11.0 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | TEN | 35 | +0.247 | +0.260 | -0.013 | +8.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.68 | -4.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | PIT | 39 | +0.147 | +0.092 | +0.056 | +5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.17 | -6.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 42 | +0.128 | +0.114 | +0.014 | +5.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.4 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.03 | +1.0 |
| Mac Jones | NE | TB | 44 | +0.124 | +0.057 | +0.067 | +5.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -5.6 | +0.08 | +7.7 |
| Tom Brady | TB | NE | 44 | +0.092 | +0.051 | +0.041 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.05 | -10.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 41 | +0.082 | +0.058 | +0.024 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -2.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | LV | 40 | +0.062 | +0.126 | -0.064 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.14 | +0.1 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | DAL | 44 | +0.047 | -0.036 | +0.083 | +2.1 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 5 | -7.2 | -0.12 | -0.3 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | DET | 18 | +0.037 | +0.179 | -0.141 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.06 | +9.2 |
| Jacoby Brissett | MIA | IND | 33 | -0.008 | -0.017 | +0.009 | -0.3 | 0 / 1 | -6.0 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.09 | +1.1 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | HOU | 31 | -0.032 | +0.063 | -0.095 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.16 | +5.0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | SEA | 24 | -0.072 | -0.051 | -0.020 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.01 | -2.1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | NYJ | 57 | -0.110 | +0.005 | -0.115 | -6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -10.1 | +0.13 | -2.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | MIN | 37 | -0.155 | -0.164 | +0.009 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.5 | -0.16 | -18.2 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | SF | 26 | -0.163 | -0.176 | +0.013 | -4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.0 | -0.02 | +4.3 |
| Derek Carr | LV | LAC | 38 | -0.213 | -0.199 | -0.014 | -8.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.10 | -2.4 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | GB | 42 | -0.234 | -0.250 | +0.017 | -9.8 | 1 / 1 | -5.3 | 2 | -6.0 | -0.13 | +1.4 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CLE | 40 | -0.244 | -0.245 | +0.002 | -9.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 2 | -4.2 | -0.36 | -11.3 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | BAL | 18 | -0.409 | -0.389 | -0.020 | -7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.27 | -17.7 |
| Drew Lock | DEN | BAL | 24 | -0.413 | -0.393 | -0.020 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.18 | -8.1 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | BUF | 24 | -0.905 | -0.955 | +0.050 | -21.7 | 4 / 0 | -16.3 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.43 | -15.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.