Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI L | 3–38 | -22.5dog 12.5 | -0.44 → -0.38 | +0.14 → +0.06 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 5 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 38–3 | +22.5fav 12.5 | +0.14 → +0.13 | -0.44 → -0.37 | +0.51 | 100%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 1 / 5 |
| CIN W | 41–17 | +30.5dog 6.5 | +0.30 → +0.30 | -0.14 → -0.17 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 31% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ BAL L | 17–41 | -30.5fav 6.5 | -0.14 → -0.15 | +0.30 → +0.31 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 69% | 0 / 1 |
| HOU L | 5–31 | -5.5dog 20.5 | -0.46 → -0.44 | +0.14 → +0.12 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 68% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ARI W | 31–5 | +5.5fav 20.5 | +0.14 → +0.06 | -0.46 → -0.41 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 32% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| NYJ L | 13–54 | -34.0dog 7.0 | -0.10 → -0.10 | +0.48 → +0.47 | -0.57 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 54–13 | +34.0fav 7.0 | +0.48 → +0.41 | -0.10 → -0.01 | +0.42 | 99%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| KC L | 3–27 | -28.0fav 4.0 | -0.10 → -0.11 | +0.19 → +0.16 | -0.26 | 5%raw 2% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 27–3 | +28.0dog 4.0 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.10 → -0.23 | +0.39 | 99%raw 98% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| IND W | 30–18 | +15.5dog 3.5 | -0.08 → -0.04 | -0.26 → -0.30 | +0.26 | 95%raw 92% | 20% – 100% | 2 / 4 |
| @ SF L | 18–30 | -15.5fav 3.5 | -0.26 → -0.25 | -0.08 → -0.13 | -0.12 | 20%raw 8% | 0% – 80% | 4 / 2 |
| PHI L | 22–33 | -10.0dog 1.0 | +0.01 → -0.03 | +0.26 → +0.27 | -0.30 | 3%raw 4% | 0% – 67% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 33–22 | +10.0fav 1.0 | +0.26 → +0.26 | +0.01 → +0.02 | +0.24 | 94%raw 96% | 33% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| CAR L | 3–25 | -25.0fav 3.0 | -0.35 → -0.38 | -0.11 → +0.00 | -0.38 | 1%raw 3% | 0% – 54% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NYG W | 25–3 | +25.0dog 3.0 | -0.11 → -0.09 | -0.35 → -0.28 | +0.19 | 90%raw 97% | 46% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| WAS L | 10–24 | -5.5dog 8.5 | -0.10 → -0.10 | +0.09 → -0.02 | -0.09 | 28%raw 6% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 24–10 | +5.5fav 8.5 | +0.09 → +0.09 | -0.10 → -0.05 | +0.14 | 82%raw 94% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| DEN L | 14–17 | -1.0dog 2.0 | +0.11 → +0.10 | +0.23 → +0.22 | -0.11 | 22%raw 16% | 2% – 45% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CLE W | 17–14 | +1.0fav 2.0 | +0.23 → +0.24 | +0.11 → +0.14 | +0.09 | 74%raw 84% | 55% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| NO W | 13–10 | -3.0fav 6.0 | -0.15 → -0.17 | -0.12 → -0.15 | -0.02 | 46%raw 41% | 22% – 98% | 1 / 0 |
| @ SEA L | 10–13 | +3.0dog 6.0 | -0.12 → -0.03 | -0.15 → -0.11 | +0.08 | 71%raw 59% | 2% – 78% | 0 / 1 |
| DET L | 19–28 | +8.0dog 17.0 | +0.07 → +0.16 | +0.16 → +0.14 | +0.02 | 55%raw 23% | 0% – 74% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 28–19 | -8.0fav 17.0 | +0.16 → +0.07 | +0.07 → +0.12 | -0.06 | 35%raw 77% | 26% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| ATL W | 30–28 | +0.5fav 1.5 | +0.12 → +0.16 | +0.11 → +0.15 | +0.01 | 52%raw 54% | 24% – 94% | 2 / 2 |
| @ MIA L | 28–30 | -0.5dog 1.5 | +0.11 → +0.06 | +0.12 → +0.18 | -0.12 | 20%raw 46% | 6% – 76% | 2 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | LV | PHI | 34 | +0.530 | +0.539 | -0.010 | +18.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.42 | +17.8 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | BAL | 38 | +0.520 | +0.518 | +0.002 | +19.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.75 | +3.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | KC | 27 | +0.504 | +0.516 | -0.013 | +13.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.25 | +14.9 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | MIA | 41 | +0.335 | +0.273 | +0.063 | +13.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.3 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.45 | -3.3 |
| Mac Jones | NE | NYJ | 37 | +0.318 | +0.417 | -0.099 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.13 | -0.6 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | WAS | 38 | +0.288 | +0.287 | +0.001 | +10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.2 | +0.18 | +10.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | CHI | 36 | +0.275 | +0.257 | +0.018 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -8.5 |
| Chad Henne | KC | TEN | 16 | +0.233 | +0.253 | -0.020 | +3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +3.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | DET | 43 | +0.212 | +0.351 | -0.138 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.59 | +0.7 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | CLE | 35 | +0.194 | +0.181 | +0.013 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.15 | +5.0 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | HOU | 32 | +0.181 | +0.270 | -0.088 | +5.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.26 | +2.5 |
| Case Keenum | CLE | DEN | 34 | +0.152 | +0.140 | +0.012 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.11 | -1.4 |
| Jared Goff | DET | LA | 36 | +0.071 | -0.030 | +0.102 | +2.6 | 2 / 0 | -7.8 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.13 | -4.7 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | ATL | 41 | +0.066 | +0.137 | -0.071 | +2.7 | 2 / 0 | -13.3 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.32 | +12.4 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | NE | 11 | +0.066 | +0.027 | +0.039 | +0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.02 | -3.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LV | 37 | +0.052 | +0.112 | -0.061 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.02 | -7.2 |
| Mike White | NYJ | NE | 33 | +0.033 | -0.006 | +0.039 | +1.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.1 | 1 | -0.1 | +0.02 | -6.5 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | SEA | 37 | -0.031 | -0.008 | -0.023 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.37 | -6.9 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | NO | 27 | -0.047 | -0.146 | +0.099 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.0 | -0.29 | -1.4 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | CAR | 35 | -0.059 | -0.057 | -0.002 | -2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.06 | +1.1 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | SF | 28 | -0.137 | -0.149 | +0.012 | -3.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.1 | 1 | -6.1 | -0.05 | -0.5 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | TEN | 39 | -0.194 | -0.174 | -0.020 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.04 | -5.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | GB | 40 | -0.244 | -0.264 | +0.019 | -9.8 | 1 / 1 | -9.8 | 4 | -8.7 | -0.23 | +3.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CIN | 36 | -0.280 | -0.259 | -0.020 | -10.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.6 | -0.09 | -13.1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | IND | 30 | -0.356 | -0.356 | -0.000 | -10.7 | 2 / 1 | -11.7 | 2 | -5.5 | -0.38 | -5.7 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | NYG | 28 | -0.394 | -0.376 | -0.018 | -11.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.39 | -5.8 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | CIN | 11 | -0.404 | -0.384 | -0.020 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -21.1 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | ARI | 34 | -0.472 | -0.482 | +0.010 | -16.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 2 | -8.0 | -0.16 | +0.1 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | TB | 36 | -0.659 | -0.708 | +0.049 | -23.7 | 3 / 2 | -21.7 | 4 | -14.6 | -0.29 | +2.4 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | NYG | 17 | -0.800 | -0.782 | -0.018 | -13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.06 | -39.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.