Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE L | 17–47 | -25.5dog 4.5 | +0.07 → +0.14 | +0.77 → +0.68 | -0.54 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 47–17 | +25.5fav 4.5 | +0.77 → +0.80 | +0.07 → +0.05 | +0.75 | 100%raw 100% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| ARI L | 11–34 | -19.0dog 4.0 | -0.40 → -0.33 | +0.10 → +0.07 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 34–11 | +19.0fav 4.0 | +0.10 → +0.13 | -0.40 → -0.43 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| PIT L | 21–42 | -8.0dog 13.0 | -0.11 → -0.15 | +0.21 → +0.10 | -0.24 | 6%raw 1% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 2 |
| @ KC W | 42–21 | +8.0fav 13.0 | +0.21 → +0.23 | -0.11 → -0.07 | +0.30 | 97%raw 99% | 37% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| SF W | 23–17 | +9.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.00 | -0.14 → -0.17 | +0.17 | 86%raw 76% | 43% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DAL L | 17–23 | -9.0fav 3.0 | -0.14 → -0.10 | -0.05 → -0.08 | -0.02 | 45%raw 24% | 2% – 57% | 1 / 1 |
| PHI L | 15–31 | -8.5dog 7.5 | -0.11 → -0.04 | +0.06 → -0.03 | -0.01 | 46%raw 9% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 31–15 | +8.5fav 7.5 | +0.06 → +0.05 | -0.11 → -0.11 | +0.16 | 86%raw 91% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| LV L | 19–26 | -1.0dog 6.0 | +0.05 → +0.04 | +0.12 → +0.12 | -0.08 | 30%raw 28% | 1% – 55% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 26–19 | +1.0fav 6.0 | +0.12 → +0.08 | +0.05 → +0.06 | +0.02 | 55%raw 72% | 45% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 25 | +0.981 | +0.919 | +0.062 | +24.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +18.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 18 | +0.733 | +0.695 | +0.038 | +13.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.16 | +11.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | PIT | 42 | +0.517 | +0.453 | +0.064 | +21.7 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.20 | +10.6 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | LV | 36 | +0.219 | +0.278 | -0.059 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.33 | +11.2 |
| Tom Brady | TB | PHI | 41 | +0.183 | +0.201 | -0.017 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.2 | +0.06 | +8.2 |
| Mac Jones | NE | BUF | 40 | +0.153 | +0.078 | +0.075 | +6.1 | 2 / 0 | -9.7 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.09 | +4.8 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | DAL | 25 | +0.089 | +0.006 | +0.082 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -6.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -5.3 |
| Derek Carr | LV | CIN | 56 | -0.006 | +0.008 | -0.014 | -0.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.1 | 3 | -8.8 | -0.08 | -6.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | TB | 46 | -0.058 | -0.120 | +0.062 | -2.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.8 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.05 | -7.5 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | KC | 46 | -0.108 | -0.079 | -0.029 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.30 | -0.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | SF | 47 | -0.249 | -0.259 | +0.011 | -11.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 5 | -7.3 | -0.17 | -9.5 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LA | 36 | -0.522 | -0.610 | +0.088 | -18.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.5 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.27 | -15.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.