Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX L | 10–50 | -22.5dog 17.5 | -0.25 → -0.25 | +0.44 → +0.43 | -0.68 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 3 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 50–10 | +22.5fav 17.5 | +0.44 → +0.37 | -0.25 → -0.18 | +0.55 | 100%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| MIN L | 10–37 | -14.0dog 13.0 | -0.28 → -0.28 | +0.23 → +0.13 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 0 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 37–10 | +14.0fav 13.0 | +0.23 → +0.23 | -0.28 → -0.31 | +0.54 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| MIA L | 3–34 | -28.0dog 3.0 | -0.36 → -0.37 | +0.06 → +0.03 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TEN W | 34–3 | +28.0fav 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.10 | -0.36 → -0.33 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NYG L | 3–29 | -19.0dog 7.0 | -0.68 → -0.72 | -0.17 → -0.10 | -0.62 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 4 / 2 |
| @ CHI W | 29–3 | +19.0fav 7.0 | -0.17 → -0.19 | -0.68 → -0.59 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 2 / 4 |
| DET L | 29–51 | -13.5dog 8.5 | +0.01 → +0.00 | +0.41 → +0.40 | -0.40 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 60% | 3 / 0 |
| @ SEA W | 51–29 | +13.5fav 8.5 | +0.41 → +0.32 | +0.01 → +0.06 | +0.26 | 95%raw 100% | 40% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| DEN L | 13–34 | -13.0dog 8.0 | -0.14 → -0.16 | +0.14 → +0.10 | -0.26 | 5%raw 2% | 0% – 45% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 34–13 | +13.0fav 8.0 | +0.14 → +0.15 | -0.14 → -0.11 | +0.26 | 95%raw 98% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| HOU L | 7–23 | -2.0dog 14.0 | -0.30 → -0.27 | +0.03 → +0.00 | -0.28 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 73% | 1 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 23–7 | +2.0fav 14.0 | +0.03 → -0.05 | -0.30 → -0.25 | +0.20 | 90%raw 99% | 27% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| ARI W | 25–22 | +9.5dog 6.5 | +0.18 → +0.23 | +0.07 → +0.04 | +0.19 | 89%raw 82% | 42% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DAL L | 22–25 | -9.5fav 6.5 | +0.07 → +0.10 | +0.18 → +0.16 | -0.06 | 35%raw 18% | 3% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| ATL L | 15–29 | +0.0dog 14.0 | -0.21 → -0.15 | +0.07 → -0.04 | -0.11 | 22%raw 2% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 3 |
| @ BUF W | 29–15 | +0.0fav 14.0 | +0.07 → +0.03 | -0.21 → -0.16 | +0.19 | 89%raw 98% | 37% – 100% | 3 / 1 |
| CLE L | 14–26 | -13.0fav 1.0 | -0.24 → -0.24 | -0.09 → -0.05 | -0.19 | 10%raw 11% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 26–14 | +13.0dog 1.0 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.24 → -0.27 | +0.17 | 87%raw 89% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| LA W | 20–19 | -6.0fav 7.0 | +0.11 → +0.10 | -0.03 → -0.06 | +0.16 | 86%raw 88% | 12% – 79% | 3 / 2 |
| @ BAL L | 19–20 | +6.0dog 7.0 | -0.03 → +0.04 | +0.11 → +0.08 | -0.04 | 39%raw 12% | 21% – 88% | 2 / 3 |
| LV W | 23–20 | +11.5dog 8.5 | +0.08 → +0.10 | -0.02 → -0.06 | +0.16 | 85%raw 78% | 21% – 82% | 2 / 0 |
| @ IND L | 20–23 | -11.5fav 8.5 | -0.02 → -0.06 | +0.08 → +0.09 | -0.15 | 16%raw 22% | 18% – 79% | 0 / 2 |
| PHI W | 20–16 | -2.5fav 6.5 | +0.16 → +0.16 | -0.03 → +0.03 | +0.13 | 80%raw 93% | 18% – 97% | 0 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 16–20 | +2.5dog 6.5 | -0.03 → -0.03 | +0.16 → +0.17 | -0.20 | 9%raw 7% | 3% – 82% | 1 / 0 |
| CAR L | 10–18 | -1.0dog 7.0 | -0.30 → -0.22 | -0.13 → -0.10 | -0.12 | 20%raw 9% | 0% – 67% | 2 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 18–10 | +1.0fav 7.0 | -0.13 → -0.12 | -0.30 → -0.23 | +0.11 | 78%raw 91% | 33% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| KC L | 31–34 | -6.5fav 3.5 | +0.37 → +0.37 | +0.35 → +0.36 | +0.01 | 52%raw 54% | 9% – 85% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 34–31 | +6.5dog 3.5 | +0.35 → +0.33 | +0.37 → +0.25 | +0.08 | 71%raw 46% | 15% – 91% | 0 / 0 |
| TB W | 28–24 | -10.5fav 14.5 | +0.24 → +0.17 | +0.13 → +0.24 | -0.07 | 32%raw 81% | 5% – 89% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 24–28 | +10.5dog 14.5 | +0.13 → +0.21 | +0.24 → +0.16 | +0.05 | 64%raw 19% | 11% – 95% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | CIN | KC | 43 | +0.541 | +0.556 | -0.015 | +23.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.89 | +13.0 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 31 | +0.499 | +0.480 | +0.019 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +2.5 |
| Mac Jones | NE | JAX | 30 | +0.452 | +0.574 | -0.121 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +10.0 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | DET | 30 | +0.374 | +0.508 | -0.134 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.14 | +5.4 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | ARI | 40 | +0.352 | +0.325 | +0.027 | +14.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.41 | -8.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | NYJ | 50 | +0.340 | +0.444 | -0.104 | +17.0 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.82 | +10.0 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | DAL | 40 | +0.325 | +0.236 | +0.090 | +13.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.28 | +7.0 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | TB | 34 | +0.317 | +0.247 | +0.070 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.04 | -4.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | CIN | 35 | +0.317 | +0.324 | -0.007 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +12.1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | MIN | 38 | +0.283 | +0.263 | +0.020 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +8.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 27 | +0.281 | +0.280 | +0.002 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.02 | +6.7 |
| Trey Lance | SF | HOU | 24 | +0.262 | +0.352 | -0.090 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.29 | +8.5 |
| Derek Carr | LV | IND | 33 | +0.184 | +0.171 | +0.013 | +6.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.51 | +10.0 |
| Tim Boyle | DET | SEA | 38 | +0.176 | +0.195 | -0.019 | +6.7 | 3 / 0 | -13.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.11 | -5.5 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | BAL | 37 | +0.156 | +0.163 | -0.007 | +5.8 | 2 / 1 | -14.0 | 1 | -6.0 | +0.44 | +3.9 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | MIA | 19 | +0.139 | +0.079 | +0.060 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.6 | +0.03 | +6.8 |
| Drew Lock | DEN | LAC | 26 | +0.075 | +0.086 | -0.011 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -3.2 | -0.03 | +2.7 |
| Taysom Hill | NO | CAR | 28 | +0.038 | +0.038 | +0.000 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.26 | +5.7 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | LA | 35 | -0.014 | -0.111 | +0.097 | -0.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 5 | -5.0 | -0.54 | +0.7 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | PHI | 38 | -0.142 | -0.118 | -0.025 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 3 | -6.4 | -0.52 | +7.0 |
| Andy Dalton | CHI | NYG | 36 | -0.150 | -0.138 | -0.012 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.05 | -9.4 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | LV | 28 | -0.264 | -0.193 | -0.071 | -7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.8 | -0.03 | -2.0 |
| Sean Mannion | MIN | GB | 38 | -0.271 | -0.287 | +0.016 | -10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.24 | -5.4 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | BUF | 28 | -0.285 | -0.347 | +0.062 | -8.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 5 | -10.4 | -0.23 | -0.4 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | PIT | 47 | -0.290 | -0.335 | +0.045 | -13.6 | 2 / 0 | -5.5 | 9 | -13.2 | -0.43 | -20.2 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | ATL | 27 | -0.330 | -0.252 | -0.078 | -8.9 | 3 / 0 | -12.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.13 | -14.0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | CLE | 48 | -0.365 | -0.364 | -0.001 | -17.5 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.29 | -15.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | NE | 29 | -0.385 | -0.416 | +0.031 | -11.2 | 3 / 0 | -15.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.15 | -4.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | TEN | 42 | -0.387 | -0.359 | -0.028 | -16.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.2 | 4 | -10.2 | -0.23 | -18.3 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | NO | 33 | -0.402 | -0.492 | +0.090 | -13.3 | 1 / 1 | -8.9 | 7 | -12.8 | -0.21 | -4.7 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | SF | 35 | -0.455 | -0.458 | +0.003 | -15.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.38 | +1.2 |
| Mike Glennon | NYG | CHI | 15 | -2.412 | -2.371 | -0.041 | -36.2 | 2 / 2 | -23.1 | 4 | -15.2 | -0.31 | -29.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.