Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV L | 9–48 | -29.0dog 10.0 | -0.30 → -0.34 | +0.35 → +0.24 | -0.57 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 43% | 5 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 48–9 | +29.0fav 10.0 | +0.35 → +0.32 | -0.30 → -0.30 | +0.62 | 100%raw 100% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 5 |
| CHI L | 30–45 | -3.5dog 11.5 | -0.13 → -0.13 | +0.32 → +0.22 | -0.34 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 76% | 3 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 45–30 | +3.5fav 11.5 | +0.32 → +0.32 | -0.13 → -0.06 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 24% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| LA W | 30–23 | +10.0dog 3.0 | +0.22 → +0.26 | -0.06 → -0.09 | +0.34 | 98%raw 98% | 25% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 23–30 | -10.0fav 3.0 | -0.06 → +0.02 | +0.22 → +0.20 | -0.18 | 12%raw 2% | 1% – 75% | 2 / 0 |
| SEA W | 33–13 | +10.0fav 10.0 | +0.33 → +0.26 | -0.14 → -0.08 | +0.34 | 98%raw 100% | 29% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 13–33 | -10.0dog 10.0 | -0.14 → -0.16 | +0.33 → +0.32 | -0.47 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 71% | 0 / 0 |
| JAX L | 0–20 | -11.5dog 8.5 | -0.43 → -0.45 | +0.04 → +0.00 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 4 / 0 |
| @ TEN W | 20–0 | +11.5fav 8.5 | +0.04 → -0.05 | -0.43 → -0.37 | +0.32 | 97%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| NO W | 30–9 | +16.5fav 4.5 | +0.15 → +0.07 | -0.33 → -0.25 | +0.32 | 97%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ NYJ L | 9–30 | -16.5dog 4.5 | -0.33 → -0.25 | +0.15 → +0.19 | -0.44 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| BUF L | 27–33 | -2.5dog 3.5 | +0.08 → +0.15 | +0.17 → +0.09 | +0.06 | 67%raw 22% | 2% – 64% | 1 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 33–27 | +2.5fav 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.24 | +0.08 → -0.04 | +0.28 | 96%raw 78% | 36% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| DAL W | 27–20 | +0.5fav 6.5 | -0.16 → -0.17 | -0.47 → -0.43 | +0.26 | 95%raw 99% | 39% – 100% | 2 / 4 |
| @ WAS L | 20–27 | -0.5dog 6.5 | -0.47 → -0.44 | -0.16 → -0.19 | -0.25 | 6%raw 1% | 0% – 61% | 4 / 2 |
| DET L | 10–38 | -15.0dog 13.0 | -0.13 → -0.14 | +0.25 → +0.29 | -0.43 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 0 |
| @ DEN W | 38–10 | +15.0fav 13.0 | +0.25 → +0.16 | -0.13 → -0.09 | +0.25 | 94%raw 99% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NYG L | 21–37 | -6.5dog 9.5 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.22 → +0.18 | -0.28 | 4%raw 2% | 0% – 46% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LAC W | 37–21 | +6.5fav 9.5 | +0.22 → +0.21 | -0.08 → +0.03 | +0.18 | 88%raw 98% | 54% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| ATL W | 29–21 | +10.5dog 2.5 | +0.05 → +0.08 | -0.18 → -0.10 | +0.17 | 87%raw 96% | 22% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CAR L | 21–29 | -10.5fav 2.5 | -0.18 → -0.23 | +0.05 → +0.12 | -0.35 | 2%raw 4% | 0% – 78% | 3 / 1 |
| SF W | 26–23 | +0.5fav 2.5 | +0.12 → +0.11 | +0.11 → +0.12 | -0.00 | 49%raw 51% | 12% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CIN L | 23–26 | -0.5dog 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.16 | +0.12 → +0.09 | +0.07 | 68%raw 49% | 3% – 88% | 0 / 0 |
| PIT L | 28–36 | -4.5dog 3.5 | -0.08 → -0.09 | +0.00 → -0.02 | -0.07 | 30%raw 23% | 0% – 61% | 1 / 2 |
| @ MIN W | 36–28 | +4.5fav 3.5 | +0.00 → +0.01 | -0.08 → -0.04 | +0.05 | 65%raw 77% | 39% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| BAL L | 22–24 | +1.0dog 3.0 | -0.09 → -0.11 | -0.07 → -0.09 | -0.01 | 47%raw 42% | 1% – 54% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CLE W | 24–22 | -1.0fav 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.08 | -0.09 → -0.12 | +0.04 | 60%raw 58% | 46% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 27 | +0.522 | +0.574 | -0.052 | +14.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.14 | +18.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | ARI | 33 | +0.473 | +0.441 | +0.032 | +15.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.67 | +8.8 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | HOU | 29 | +0.464 | +0.547 | -0.083 | +13.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.40 | -0.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | NYG | 33 | +0.440 | +0.435 | +0.005 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.19 | +8.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | CHI | 40 | +0.418 | +0.396 | +0.022 | +16.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.43 | +17.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | SF | 39 | +0.298 | +0.278 | +0.020 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.9 | +0.72 | +5.5 |
| Tom Brady | TB | BUF | 48 | +0.286 | +0.208 | +0.078 | +13.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.49 | -2.2 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | DET | 26 | +0.204 | +0.342 | -0.139 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.10 | +4.5 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | CAR | 29 | +0.183 | +0.179 | +0.003 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | +8.4 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | CIN | 46 | +0.134 | +0.147 | -0.012 | +6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.0 | +0.81 | +7.5 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | LA | 53 | +0.075 | -0.025 | +0.099 | +4.0 | 2 / 0 | -13.2 | 4 | -3.3 | -0.13 | +0.2 |
| Taysom Hill | NO | NYJ | 24 | +0.048 | +0.158 | -0.110 | +1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.21 | -1.3 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | TB | 57 | +0.004 | -0.060 | +0.064 | +0.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.10 | +3.3 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | SEA | 50 | -0.067 | -0.040 | -0.027 | -3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | -0.03 | -3.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | BAL | 32 | -0.069 | -0.058 | -0.011 | -2.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +3.0 |
| Derek Carr | LV | KC | 49 | -0.090 | -0.061 | -0.028 | -4.4 | 1 / 1 | -8.5 | 4 | -8.7 | -0.08 | +5.2 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | CLE | 41 | -0.100 | -0.107 | +0.007 | -4.1 | 0 / 2 | -13.6 | 3 | -14.5 | -0.43 | +8.7 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | JAX | 35 | -0.111 | +0.022 | -0.133 | -3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.8 | +0.06 | -3.1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | MIN | 46 | -0.159 | -0.170 | +0.011 | -7.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 5 | -9.1 | -0.11 | +2.6 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | ATL | 12 | -0.162 | -0.083 | -0.079 | -1.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -8.4 |
| Jared Goff | DET | DEN | 41 | -0.206 | -0.209 | +0.003 | -8.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.09 | -4.1 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | ATL | 24 | -0.226 | -0.147 | -0.079 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -2.7 | -0.00 | -6.1 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | NO | 45 | -0.250 | -0.342 | +0.093 | -11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.48 | -21.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | PIT | 31 | -0.266 | -0.312 | +0.046 | -8.2 | 2 / 0 | -12.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -18.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 43 | -0.274 | -0.262 | -0.012 | -11.8 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 4 | -4.9 | -0.11 | -13.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | GB | 35 | -0.304 | -0.323 | +0.019 | -10.6 | 2 / 1 | -15.8 | 2 | -6.2 | -0.26 | -7.3 |
| Mike Glennon | NYG | LAC | 38 | -0.307 | -0.291 | -0.016 | -11.7 | 1 / 1 | -6.5 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.04 | -16.2 |
| Kyle Allen | WAS | DAL | 11 | -0.346 | -0.412 | +0.066 | -3.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 1 | -4.3 | -0.12 | -16.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TEN | 43 | -0.406 | -0.378 | -0.028 | -17.5 | 4 / 0 | -14.2 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.19 | -1.8 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | DAL | 29 | -0.759 | -0.826 | +0.066 | -22.0 | 1 / 1 | -13.2 | 4 | -12.8 | -0.43 | -17.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.