Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO L | 7–26 | -22.0fav 3.0 | -0.53 → -0.53 | +0.07 → +0.15 | -0.68 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 2 / 1 |
| @ CAR W | 26–7 | +22.0dog 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.16 | -0.53 → -0.51 | +0.67 | 100%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| BUF W | 35–0 | +31.5fav 3.5 | +0.16 → +0.20 | -0.46 → -0.43 | +0.63 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ MIA L | 0–35 | -31.5dog 3.5 | -0.46 → -0.40 | +0.16 → +0.05 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 2 |
| ATL L | 25–48 | -9.5dog 13.5 | -0.29 → -0.23 | +0.06 → -0.02 | -0.21 | 9%raw 1% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 48–25 | +9.5fav 13.5 | +0.06 → +0.02 | -0.29 → -0.24 | +0.26 | 95%raw 99% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| LA W | 27–24 | -1.0fav 4.0 | +0.08 → +0.10 | -0.10 → -0.14 | +0.24 | 94%raw 91% | 30% – 94% | 2 / 2 |
| @ IND L | 24–27 | +1.0dog 4.0 | -0.10 → -0.02 | +0.08 → +0.05 | -0.07 | 31%raw 9% | 6% – 70% | 2 / 2 |
| DEN W | 23–13 | +4.0fav 6.0 | +0.14 → +0.06 | -0.24 → -0.17 | +0.23 | 93%raw 99% | 26% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 13–23 | -4.0dog 6.0 | -0.24 → -0.25 | +0.14 → +0.18 | -0.43 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 74% | 2 / 0 |
| LV W | 26–17 | +14.5dog 5.5 | +0.22 → +0.24 | +0.00 → +0.05 | +0.19 | 89%raw 95% | 42% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ PIT L | 17–26 | -14.5fav 5.5 | +0.00 → -0.04 | +0.22 → +0.23 | -0.27 | 4%raw 5% | 1% – 58% | 1 / 0 |
| DET L | 17–35 | -6.5dog 11.5 | -0.01 → -0.00 | +0.30 → +0.19 | -0.20 | 10%raw 2% | 0% – 63% | 2 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 35–17 | +6.5fav 11.5 | +0.30 → +0.21 | -0.01 → +0.04 | +0.17 | 87%raw 98% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| MIN L | 33–34 | +3.0dog 4.0 | +0.19 → +0.23 | +0.12 → +0.09 | +0.14 | 82%raw 74% | 25% – 84% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI W | 34–33 | -3.0fav 4.0 | +0.12 → +0.11 | +0.19 → +0.18 | -0.06 | 33%raw 26% | 16% – 75% | 2 / 0 |
| SF W | 17–11 | +3.0fav 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | -0.03 → -0.03 | +0.13 | 80%raw 86% | 18% – 98% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI L | 11–17 | -3.0dog 3.0 | -0.03 → +0.01 | +0.10 → +0.07 | -0.07 | 33%raw 14% | 2% – 82% | 0 / 0 |
| CIN L | 17–20 | -1.0dog 2.0 | -0.34 → -0.37 | -0.24 → -0.17 | -0.20 | 10%raw 19% | 0% – 50% | 4 / 1 |
| @ CHI W | 20–17 | +1.0fav 2.0 | -0.24 → -0.25 | -0.34 → -0.36 | +0.11 | 77%raw 81% | 50% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| KC L | 35–36 | -4.5fav 3.5 | +0.29 → +0.29 | +0.21 → +0.20 | +0.10 | 75%raw 75% | 8% – 92% | 2 / 2 |
| @ BAL W | 36–35 | +4.5dog 3.5 | +0.21 → +0.19 | +0.29 → +0.18 | +0.01 | 53%raw 25% | 8% – 92% | 2 / 2 |
| NE W | 25–6 | +13.5fav 5.5 | -0.05 → -0.14 | -0.32 → -0.23 | +0.10 | 74%raw 97% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ NYJ L | 6–25 | -13.5dog 5.5 | -0.32 → -0.32 | -0.05 → -0.08 | -0.25 | 6%raw 3% | 0% – 62% | 4 / 0 |
| DAL W | 20–17 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.08 → +0.04 | +0.05 | 65%raw 58% | 30% – 77% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 17–20 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.08 → +0.13 | +0.10 → +0.08 | +0.05 | 64%raw 42% | 23% – 70% | 2 / 1 |
| TEN W | 33–30 | +9.5dog 6.5 | +0.16 → +0.16 | +0.15 → +0.14 | +0.02 | 56%raw 53% | 4% – 92% | 1 / 0 |
| @ SEA L | 30–33 | -9.5fav 6.5 | +0.15 → +0.16 | +0.16 → +0.13 | +0.03 | 57%raw 47% | 8% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| HOU L | 21–31 | +3.5dog 13.5 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.15 → +0.13 | -0.04 | 38%raw 33% | 0% – 69% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CLE W | 31–21 | -3.5fav 13.5 | +0.15 → +0.07 | +0.10 → +0.17 | -0.09 | 26%raw 67% | 31% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| NYG L | 29–30 | +3.0dog 4.0 | +0.08 → +0.07 | +0.10 → +0.16 | -0.09 | 28%raw 44% | 24% – 81% | 0 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 30–29 | -3.0fav 4.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.08 → +0.19 | -0.11 | 23%raw 56% | 19% – 76% | 1 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | HOU | CLE | 11 | +0.828 | +0.809 | +0.019 | +9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +19.0 |
| Derek Carr | LV | PIT | 39 | +0.595 | +0.529 | +0.066 | +23.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.67 | +9.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BAL | 31 | +0.558 | +0.555 | +0.003 | +17.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.73 | +10.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | DET | 30 | +0.452 | +0.586 | -0.133 | +13.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.1 | +0.62 | +15.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | IND | 31 | +0.403 | +0.385 | +0.018 | +12.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.53 | -4.3 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | NO | 40 | +0.381 | +0.273 | +0.109 | +15.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.3 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.38 | +2.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | HOU | 23 | +0.258 | +0.347 | -0.088 | +5.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.24 | +19.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | ARI | 33 | +0.240 | +0.212 | +0.028 | +7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.44 | -1.5 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | TEN | 34 | +0.231 | +0.244 | -0.013 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.23 | +6.5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | PHI | 30 | +0.199 | +0.216 | -0.017 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | +0.1 |
| Andy Dalton | CHI | CIN | 12 | +0.198 | +0.216 | -0.019 | +2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.06 | +14.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 34 | +0.176 | +0.113 | +0.064 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.06 | -2.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DAL | 43 | +0.169 | +0.084 | +0.085 | +7.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 2 | -3.9 | +0.31 | +7.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | SEA | 43 | +0.154 | +0.173 | -0.019 | +6.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.04 | +5.4 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | MIN | 39 | +0.136 | +0.117 | +0.018 | +5.3 | 2 / 0 | -13.7 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.27 | +14.6 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | JAX | 37 | +0.110 | +0.242 | -0.132 | +4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.3 | +0.19 | +14.7 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | WAS | 36 | +0.072 | +0.078 | -0.006 | +2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.8 | +0.16 | +4.4 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | LA | 35 | +0.062 | -0.036 | +0.098 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -9.0 | +0.14 | +0.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | SF | 25 | +0.044 | +0.027 | +0.017 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.8 | -0.02 | -5.6 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | CLE | 19 | +0.042 | +0.024 | +0.019 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.08 | -16.9 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | NYG | 46 | +0.011 | +0.017 | -0.006 | +0.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | -3.2 | +0.04 | +7.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | GB | 37 | +0.009 | -0.015 | +0.025 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.21 | +8.7 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | LV | 42 | +0.001 | +0.064 | -0.064 | +0.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.02 | +4.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | ATL | 39 | -0.026 | +0.048 | -0.073 | -1.0 | 0 / 1 | -4.3 | 3 | -7.1 | +0.10 | +4.9 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | LAC | 29 | -0.067 | -0.058 | -0.010 | -2.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.01 | +13.0 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | KC | 28 | -0.068 | -0.041 | -0.027 | -1.9 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.00 | +4.5 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | TB | 47 | -0.074 | -0.134 | +0.060 | -3.5 | 3 / 0 | -21.6 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.08 | +7.2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CHI | 35 | -0.250 | -0.256 | +0.006 | -8.8 | 3 / 0 | -19.1 | 5 | -3.6 | -0.23 | -0.1 |
| Mac Jones | NE | NYJ | 33 | -0.251 | -0.133 | -0.118 | -8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.4 | -0.09 | +5.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | MIA | BUF | 44 | -0.261 | -0.323 | +0.062 | -11.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.12 | -9.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | DEN | 35 | -0.405 | -0.405 | -0.000 | -14.2 | 2 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.40 | -18.2 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | NE | 37 | -0.614 | -0.641 | +0.027 | -22.7 | 4 / 0 | -15.5 | 4 | -6.0 | -0.45 | -7.4 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | CIN | 15 | -0.662 | -0.644 | -0.019 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.19 | -8.3 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | CAR | 26 | -0.730 | -0.717 | -0.013 | -19.0 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 4 | -8.5 | -0.18 | -10.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.