Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI W | 44–6 | +35.0fav 3.0 | +0.23 → +0.14 | -0.40 → -0.36 | +0.50 | 100%raw 100% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DET L | 6–44 | -35.0dog 3.0 | -0.40 → -0.42 | +0.23 → +0.24 | -0.66 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 63% | 1 / 0 |
| TEN W | 34–31 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.10 → +0.12 | -0.14 → -0.19 | +0.31 | 97%raw 96% | 11% – 95% | 3 / 2 |
| @ IND L | 31–34 | -6.0fav 3.0 | -0.14 → -0.15 | +0.10 → +0.06 | -0.21 | 9%raw 4% | 5% – 89% | 2 / 3 |
| SF W | 33–22 | +6.5fav 4.5 | +0.46 → +0.46 | +0.09 → +0.17 | +0.29 | 96%raw 99% | 16% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 22–33 | -6.5dog 4.5 | +0.09 → +0.14 | +0.46 → +0.44 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 84% | 1 / 0 |
| DAL W | 20–16 | +8.5dog 4.5 | +0.03 → +0.02 | -0.23 → -0.26 | +0.28 | 96%raw 97% | 21% – 90% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIN L | 16–20 | -8.5fav 4.5 | -0.23 → -0.19 | +0.03 → -0.00 | -0.19 | 11%raw 3% | 10% – 79% | 0 / 2 |
| TB L | 27–36 | -13.0fav 4.0 | -0.01 → +0.08 | +0.05 → +0.09 | -0.01 | 47%raw 30% | 0% – 64% | 3 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 36–27 | +13.0dog 4.0 | +0.05 → +0.12 | -0.01 → -0.10 | +0.22 | 92%raw 70% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| LA W | 38–22 | -1.0fav 17.0 | +0.22 → +0.14 | -0.14 → -0.07 | +0.22 | 92%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ HOU L | 22–38 | +1.0dog 17.0 | -0.14 → -0.06 | +0.22 → +0.20 | -0.26 | 5%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 1 / 0 |
| PIT W | 15–10 | +10.5dog 5.5 | +0.09 → +0.08 | -0.10 → -0.13 | +0.21 | 91%raw 93% | 21% – 98% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CLE L | 10–15 | -10.5fav 5.5 | -0.10 → -0.09 | +0.09 → +0.14 | -0.23 | 7%raw 7% | 2% – 79% | 1 / 0 |
| MIA L | 11–26 | +0.0dog 15.0 | -0.14 → -0.07 | +0.06 → -0.05 | -0.02 | 44%raw 6% | 0% – 63% | 2 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 26–11 | +0.0fav 15.0 | +0.06 → +0.10 | -0.14 → -0.10 | +0.20 | 90%raw 94% | 37% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| CAR W | 19–13 | +8.5dog 2.5 | +0.06 → +0.01 | -0.23 → -0.17 | +0.18 | 89%raw 98% | 19% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| @ ATL L | 13–19 | -8.5fav 2.5 | -0.23 → -0.21 | +0.06 → +0.15 | -0.36 | 2%raw 2% | 1% – 81% | 2 / 1 |
| GB W | 24–21 | +9.5dog 6.5 | +0.08 → +0.12 | +0.05 → +0.03 | +0.09 | 74%raw 62% | 25% – 94% | 0 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 21–24 | -9.5fav 6.5 | +0.05 → +0.06 | +0.08 → -0.02 | +0.08 | 72%raw 38% | 6% – 75% | 2 / 0 |
| NE W | 27–24 | +6.5dog 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.06 | -0.03 → -0.07 | +0.01 | 54%raw 45% | 28% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 24–27 | -6.5fav 3.5 | -0.03 → -0.02 | -0.04 → -0.07 | +0.04 | 62%raw 55% | 1% – 72% | 2 / 1 |
| WAS L | 10–17 | -3.0dog 4.0 | -0.02 → -0.02 | +0.08 → +0.11 | -0.13 | 18%raw 21% | 1% – 59% | 2 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 17–10 | +3.0fav 4.0 | +0.08 → +0.07 | -0.02 → +0.04 | +0.03 | 59%raw 79% | 41% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| CIN L | 31–34 | -14.5fav 11.5 | +0.02 → -0.06 | +0.05 → +0.15 | -0.21 | 9%raw 40% | 4% – 93% | 1 / 3 |
| @ NYJ W | 34–31 | +14.5dog 11.5 | +0.05 → +0.05 | +0.02 → +0.02 | +0.02 | 57%raw 60% | 7% – 96% | 3 / 1 |
| JAX L | 7–31 | -20.0dog 4.0 | -0.15 → -0.17 | +0.03 → +0.01 | -0.18 | 12%raw 8% | 0% – 51% | 1 / 0 |
| @ SEA W | 31–7 | +20.0fav 4.0 | +0.03 → -0.06 | -0.15 → -0.08 | +0.02 | 57%raw 92% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| NYG L | 17–20 | +7.5dog 10.5 | -0.06 → -0.09 | +0.01 → -0.11 | +0.02 | 56%raw 28% | 2% – 61% | 1 / 2 |
| @ KC W | 20–17 | -7.5fav 10.5 | +0.01 → +0.00 | -0.06 → +0.05 | -0.05 | 36%raw 72% | 39% – 98% | 2 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | CHI | 28 | +0.590 | +0.564 | +0.026 | +16.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.51 | -4.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | HOU | 32 | +0.418 | +0.506 | -0.088 | +13.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | -2.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | IND | 36 | +0.231 | +0.218 | +0.014 | +8.3 | 2 / 0 | -4.9 | 3 | -2.9 | +0.43 | +2.5 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | MIA | 42 | +0.196 | +0.133 | +0.063 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +1.8 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | CLE | 38 | +0.159 | +0.149 | +0.010 | +6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.25 | -1.9 |
| Mike White | NYJ | CIN | 48 | +0.155 | +0.168 | -0.012 | +7.5 | 2 / 0 | -15.1 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.20 | +9.5 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | TB | 10 | +0.155 | +0.087 | +0.068 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -14.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | PIT | 35 | +0.139 | +0.083 | +0.055 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.2 | -0.31 | -3.0 |
| Tom Brady | TB | NO | 43 | +0.124 | +0.022 | +0.102 | +5.3 | 2 / 1 | -18.7 | 3 | -9.2 | +0.10 | +0.4 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | WAS | 30 | +0.116 | +0.120 | -0.004 | +3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.6 | +0.26 | +5.2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | SF | 31 | +0.110 | +0.088 | +0.022 | +3.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 4 | -5.3 | +0.16 | +4.8 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | JAX | 27 | +0.102 | +0.234 | -0.132 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.1 | +0.17 | +26.0 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | MIN | 43 | +0.067 | +0.052 | +0.015 | +2.9 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 3 | -9.0 | +0.44 | -5.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | ARI | 38 | +0.060 | +0.038 | +0.023 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | -0.00 | -8.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | NYG | 50 | +0.049 | +0.054 | -0.005 | +2.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 2 | -1.3 | +0.06 | -0.8 |
| Trevor Siemian | NO | TB | 30 | +0.043 | -0.025 | +0.068 | +1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.11 | -4.1 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | GB | 35 | +0.042 | +0.018 | +0.024 | +1.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.04 | +1.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BUF | 42 | +0.034 | -0.038 | +0.072 | +1.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.08 | -9.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DET | 14 | +0.016 | +0.153 | -0.137 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | -1.6 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | ATL | 24 | -0.014 | +0.055 | -0.069 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -13.9 |
| Mac Jones | NE | LAC | 37 | -0.036 | -0.030 | -0.006 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.15 | -11.0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | DEN | 44 | -0.054 | -0.060 | +0.006 | -2.4 | 2 / 0 | -3.0 | 5 | -7.7 | -0.32 | -4.2 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | LA | 43 | -0.064 | -0.160 | +0.096 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 5 | -9.2 | -0.29 | +8.4 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | KC | 35 | -0.077 | -0.050 | -0.027 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.16 | -1.7 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | NYJ | 37 | -0.122 | -0.009 | -0.113 | -4.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -7.5 | +0.10 | +2.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | SEA | 55 | -0.168 | -0.140 | -0.028 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.15 | -6.4 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | NE | 38 | -0.169 | -0.204 | +0.034 | -6.4 | 2 / 0 | -11.2 | 3 | -3.3 | -0.54 | -15.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | DAL | 36 | -0.200 | -0.276 | +0.076 | -7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.58 | -2.7 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | TEN | 52 | -0.274 | -0.250 | -0.024 | -14.3 | 2 / 0 | -12.3 | 1 | -2.0 | -1.02 | -9.5 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | CAR | 30 | -0.285 | -0.277 | -0.008 | -8.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 3 | -5.1 | -0.21 | +5.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | PHI | 40 | -0.317 | -0.288 | -0.029 | -12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -11.8 | -0.13 | +7.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.