Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF W | 38–20 | +20.5dog 2.5 | +0.35 → +0.33 | -0.16 → -0.29 | +0.62 | 100%raw 100% | 15% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ KC L | 20–38 | -20.5fav 2.5 | -0.16 → -0.09 | +0.35 → +0.25 | -0.34 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 85% | 3 / 0 |
| MIA L | 17–45 | -17.0dog 11.0 | -0.03 → +0.05 | +0.52 → +0.45 | -0.41 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 2 / 0 |
| @ TB W | 45–17 | +17.0fav 11.0 | +0.52 → +0.58 | -0.03 → +0.01 | +0.57 | 100%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| LA W | 26–17 | +6.5fav 2.5 | +0.22 → +0.21 | -0.08 → -0.11 | +0.32 | 97%raw 98% | 19% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| @ SEA L | 17–26 | -6.5dog 2.5 | -0.08 → -0.01 | +0.22 → +0.19 | -0.20 | 10%raw 2% | 1% – 81% | 2 / 1 |
| SF L | 10–17 | -1.0dog 6.0 | -0.17 → -0.15 | -0.01 → -0.04 | -0.11 | 23%raw 10% | 1% – 48% | 1 / 1 |
| @ ARI W | 17–10 | +1.0fav 6.0 | -0.01 → +0.03 | -0.17 → -0.21 | +0.24 | 93%raw 90% | 52% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| NO W | 33–22 | +8.5fav 2.5 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.13 → -0.08 | +0.21 | 91%raw 98% | 27% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ WAS L | 22–33 | -8.5dog 2.5 | -0.13 → -0.05 | +0.13 → +0.18 | -0.22 | 8%raw 2% | 0% – 73% | 2 / 2 |
| NE W | 25–22 | -5.0fav 8.0 | +0.02 → -0.06 | +0.19 → +0.27 | -0.33 | 2%raw 8% | 6% – 92% | 2 / 1 |
| @ HOU L | 22–25 | +5.0dog 8.0 | +0.19 → +0.21 | +0.02 → -0.00 | +0.21 | 91%raw 92% | 8% – 94% | 1 / 2 |
| NYG L | 20–44 | -16.5dog 7.5 | -0.13 → -0.08 | +0.18 → +0.16 | -0.24 | 6%raw 2% | 0% – 59% | 2 / 2 |
| @ DAL W | 44–20 | +16.5fav 7.5 | +0.18 → +0.17 | -0.13 → -0.02 | +0.19 | 89%raw 98% | 41% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| TEN W | 37–19 | +14.0fav 4.0 | +0.26 → +0.18 | -0.05 → +0.02 | +0.16 | 85%raw 99% | 44% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 19–37 | -14.0dog 4.0 | -0.05 → -0.05 | +0.26 → +0.23 | -0.29 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 56% | 2 / 0 |
| GB W | 25–22 | +1.0fav 2.0 | +0.14 → +0.13 | -0.00 → -0.01 | +0.14 | 83%raw 87% | 23% – 91% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CIN L | 22–25 | -1.0dog 2.0 | -0.00 → +0.00 | +0.14 → +0.03 | -0.03 | 43%raw 13% | 9% – 77% | 2 / 1 |
| CHI W | 20–9 | +16.5dog 5.5 | +0.00 → -0.04 | -0.17 → -0.16 | +0.12 | 80%raw 91% | 27% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LV L | 9–20 | -16.5fav 5.5 | -0.17 → -0.18 | +0.00 → +0.08 | -0.26 | 5%raw 9% | 0% – 73% | 1 / 0 |
| NYJ L | 20–27 | -4.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.10 | +0.20 → +0.26 | -0.37 | 2%raw 3% | 1% – 48% | 1 / 2 |
| @ ATL W | 27–20 | +4.0fav 3.0 | +0.20 → +0.12 | -0.05 → +0.04 | +0.08 | 70%raw 97% | 52% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| IND L | 25–31 | +1.5dog 7.5 | +0.33 → +0.33 | +0.29 → +0.27 | +0.06 | 66%raw 65% | 34% – 97% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BAL W | 31–25 | -1.5fav 7.5 | +0.29 → +0.31 | +0.33 → +0.30 | +0.02 | 54%raw 35% | 3% – 66% | 1 / 1 |
| CLE L | 42–47 | -2.5dog 2.5 | +0.29 → +0.29 | +0.31 → +0.28 | +0.01 | 52%raw 43% | 2% – 91% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 47–42 | +2.5fav 2.5 | +0.31 → +0.31 | +0.29 → +0.28 | +0.03 | 59%raw 57% | 9% – 98% | 1 / 0 |
| DET L | 17–19 | +8.0dog 10.0 | -0.22 → -0.24 | -0.06 → -0.09 | -0.15 | 16%raw 10% | 1% – 57% | 2 / 2 |
| @ MIN W | 19–17 | -8.0fav 10.0 | -0.06 → -0.16 | -0.22 → -0.18 | +0.02 | 55%raw 90% | 43% – 99% | 2 / 2 |
| DEN L | 19–27 | -10.0fav 2.0 | +0.15 → +0.17 | +0.14 → +0.19 | -0.02 | 44%raw 55% | 1% – 46% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 27–19 | +10.0dog 2.0 | +0.14 → +0.14 | +0.15 → +0.19 | -0.05 | 37%raw 45% | 54% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| PHI W | 21–18 | +5.5dog 2.5 | -0.28 → -0.26 | -0.30 → -0.22 | -0.04 | 39%raw 57% | 8% – 98% | 2 / 3 |
| @ CAR L | 18–21 | -5.5fav 2.5 | -0.30 → -0.32 | -0.28 → -0.28 | -0.03 | 41%raw 43% | 2% – 92% | 3 / 2 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | TB | MIA | 42 | +0.750 | +0.674 | +0.076 | +31.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.52 | +13.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | IND | 47 | +0.717 | +0.691 | +0.026 | +33.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +1.15 | +17.8 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | NE | 32 | +0.613 | +0.560 | +0.053 | +19.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.43 | +9.3 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | KC | 26 | +0.542 | +0.555 | -0.013 | +14.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | +3.5 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | BAL | 38 | +0.434 | +0.435 | -0.001 | +16.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 2 | -7.6 | +0.58 | +4.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | CLE | 46 | +0.394 | +0.375 | +0.019 | +18.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.82 | -6.0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | DEN | 26 | +0.375 | +0.360 | +0.016 | +9.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.1 | 1 | -6.1 | +0.24 | -7.4 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | NYJ | 45 | +0.370 | +0.474 | -0.104 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.34 | +6.4 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | LA | 17 | +0.359 | +0.258 | +0.102 | +6.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +0.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SEA | 38 | +0.355 | +0.370 | -0.015 | +13.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.50 | +9.7 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | LAC | 33 | +0.335 | +0.336 | -0.001 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.41 | +9.5 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 34 | +0.306 | +0.304 | +0.002 | +10.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.27 | +3.6 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | PIT | 41 | +0.235 | +0.177 | +0.057 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 2 | -3.8 | -0.09 | +6.3 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | WAS | 32 | +0.223 | +0.224 | -0.001 | +7.1 | 1 / 1 | -11.0 | 2 | -6.6 | +0.09 | -4.7 |
| Mac Jones | NE | HOU | 30 | +0.209 | +0.299 | -0.090 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.35 | +12.9 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | CIN | 40 | +0.207 | +0.217 | -0.011 | +8.3 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 2 | -1.0 | +0.69 | +15.1 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | LV | 21 | +0.168 | +0.227 | -0.058 | +3.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.6 | +0.26 | -0.9 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | DAL | 13 | +0.150 | +0.068 | +0.082 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | -17.9 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | SF | 33 | +0.149 | +0.132 | +0.017 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.04 | +10.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | JAX | 25 | +0.135 | +0.263 | -0.128 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | +0.28 | +0.2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | GB | 42 | +0.081 | +0.057 | +0.024 | +3.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.11 | +2.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | MIA | TB | 42 | +0.038 | -0.026 | +0.064 | +1.6 | 1 / 1 | -7.6 | 3 | -5.4 | +0.13 | +1.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | DET | 35 | +0.002 | +0.146 | -0.144 | +0.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.25 | +6.5 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | LA | 18 | -0.019 | -0.121 | +0.102 | -0.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 2 | -4.5 | -0.07 | +8.0 |
| Mike Glennon | NYG | DAL | 25 | -0.033 | -0.114 | +0.082 | -0.8 | 2 / 0 | -12.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.03 | +4.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | TEN | 36 | -0.063 | -0.044 | -0.019 | -2.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.13 | +5.0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | BUF | 56 | -0.106 | -0.176 | +0.070 | -5.9 | 2 / 0 | -12.7 | 2 | -1.0 | -0.16 | -3.6 |
| Trey Lance | SF | ARI | 31 | -0.200 | -0.219 | +0.019 | -6.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 2 | -5.9 | -0.26 | -10.7 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | NO | 44 | -0.206 | -0.302 | +0.096 | -9.1 | 2 / 0 | -6.8 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.32 | -12.1 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | ATL | 35 | -0.216 | -0.137 | -0.079 | -7.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -3.6 | -0.04 | -4.1 |
| Derek Carr | LV | CHI | 39 | -0.232 | -0.238 | +0.006 | -9.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 3 | -2.5 | -0.18 | -6.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | CAR | 40 | -0.244 | -0.237 | -0.007 | -9.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.24 | -4.9 |
| Jared Goff | DET | MIN | 40 | -0.348 | -0.352 | +0.004 | -13.9 | 1 / 1 | -11.3 | 4 | -10.9 | -0.12 | -1.7 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | PHI | 40 | -0.481 | -0.449 | -0.032 | -19.2 | 3 / 0 | -12.6 | 3 | -5.3 | -0.52 | -4.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.