Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND W | 41–15 | +33.5dog 7.5 | +0.27 → +0.34 | -0.01 → -0.12 | +0.46 | 99%raw 98% | 43% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ BUF L | 15–41 | -33.5fav 7.5 | -0.01 → +0.01 | +0.27 → +0.23 | -0.22 | 8%raw 2% | 0% – 57% | 3 / 0 |
| NE W | 25–0 | +18.0fav 7.0 | -0.06 → -0.11 | -0.61 → -0.57 | +0.46 | 99%raw 100% | 40% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| @ ATL L | 0–25 | -18.0dog 7.0 | -0.61 → -0.62 | -0.06 → -0.08 | -0.54 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 60% | 4 / 1 |
| NYG L | 10–30 | -8.5dog 11.5 | -0.38 → -0.32 | +0.11 → +0.03 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 3 / 1 |
| @ TB W | 30–10 | +8.5fav 11.5 | +0.11 → +0.10 | -0.38 → -0.28 | +0.38 | 99%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| PIT L | 37–41 | +1.5dog 5.5 | -0.02 → -0.04 | +0.34 → +0.30 | -0.34 | 2%raw 1% | 2% – 64% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LAC W | 41–37 | -1.5fav 5.5 | +0.34 → +0.36 | -0.02 → +0.03 | +0.34 | 98%raw 99% | 36% – 98% | 1 / 0 |
| ARI W | 23–13 | +12.5dog 2.5 | +0.18 → +0.17 | -0.12 → -0.14 | +0.32 | 97%raw 98% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ SEA L | 13–23 | -12.5fav 2.5 | -0.12 → -0.09 | +0.18 → +0.16 | -0.25 | 6%raw 2% | 0% – 58% | 0 / 0 |
| DAL L | 9–19 | -7.5dog 2.5 | -0.26 → -0.30 | -0.07 → -0.20 | -0.10 | 25%raw 7% | 0% – 43% | 3 / 2 |
| @ KC W | 19–9 | +7.5fav 2.5 | -0.07 → -0.03 | -0.26 → -0.30 | +0.27 | 95%raw 93% | 57% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| CIN W | 32–13 | +18.0fav 1.0 | +0.02 → -0.03 | -0.28 → -0.28 | +0.25 | 94%raw 98% | 27% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LV L | 13–32 | -18.0dog 1.0 | -0.28 → -0.29 | +0.02 → +0.02 | -0.31 | 3%raw 2% | 0% – 73% | 2 / 1 |
| NO L | 29–40 | -8.5dog 2.5 | -0.16 → -0.17 | +0.01 → +0.01 | -0.18 | 12%raw 9% | 0% – 45% | 3 / 1 |
| @ PHI W | 40–29 | +8.5fav 2.5 | +0.01 → +0.10 | -0.16 → -0.13 | +0.23 | 93%raw 91% | 55% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| GB L | 31–34 | -4.0fav 1.0 | +0.45 → +0.46 | +0.27 → +0.26 | +0.20 | 90%raw 92% | 7% – 53% | 0 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 34–31 | +4.0dog 1.0 | +0.27 → +0.29 | +0.45 → +0.35 | -0.07 | 32%raw 8% | 47% – 93% | 0 / 0 |
| SF W | 30–10 | +13.5fav 6.5 | +0.20 → +0.12 | -0.10 → -0.03 | +0.14 | 83%raw 98% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ JAX L | 10–30 | -13.5dog 6.5 | -0.10 → -0.06 | +0.20 → +0.18 | -0.24 | 7%raw 2% | 0% – 59% | 1 / 0 |
| HOU W | 22–13 | +19.5dog 10.5 | -0.08 → -0.09 | -0.19 → -0.23 | +0.14 | 83%raw 81% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ TEN L | 13–22 | -19.5fav 10.5 | -0.19 → -0.27 | -0.08 → -0.01 | -0.26 | 5%raw 19% | 0% – 59% | 4 / 0 |
| BAL W | 16–13 | -2.0fav 5.0 | -0.09 → -0.10 | -0.02 → +0.05 | -0.16 | 15%raw 29% | 21% – 91% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 13–16 | +2.0dog 5.0 | -0.02 → -0.03 | -0.09 → -0.11 | +0.08 | 71%raw 71% | 9% – 79% | 1 / 1 |
| DET L | 10–13 | +10.0dog 13.0 | -0.24 → -0.26 | -0.06 → -0.09 | -0.17 | 12%raw 8% | 3% – 62% | 2 / 2 |
| @ CLE W | 13–10 | -10.0fav 13.0 | -0.06 → -0.16 | -0.24 → -0.20 | +0.04 | 61%raw 92% | 38% – 97% | 2 / 2 |
| WAS W | 27–21 | +9.5dog 3.5 | +0.20 → +0.23 | +0.15 → +0.24 | -0.01 | 47%raw 66% | 26% – 99% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CAR L | 21–27 | -9.5fav 3.5 | +0.15 → +0.15 | +0.20 → +0.26 | -0.12 | 21%raw 34% | 1% – 74% | 0 / 1 |
| MIA W | 24–17 | +3.5fav 3.5 | +0.18 → +0.11 | +0.07 → +0.17 | -0.06 | 33%raw 82% | 28% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYJ L | 17–24 | -3.5dog 3.5 | +0.07 → +0.11 | +0.18 → +0.23 | -0.12 | 21%raw 18% | 1% – 72% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | MIN | 35 | +0.694 | +0.665 | +0.030 | +24.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.64 | +7.0 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | GB | 37 | +0.596 | +0.559 | +0.037 | +22.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.1 | +0.85 | +5.0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | CAR | 25 | +0.555 | +0.541 | +0.013 | +13.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.51 | +23.2 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | PIT | 43 | +0.416 | +0.352 | +0.065 | +17.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.43 | -1.9 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYJ | 33 | +0.397 | +0.501 | -0.104 | +13.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.76 | +12.4 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | BUF | 20 | +0.359 | +0.277 | +0.081 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -14.3 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | SEA | 46 | +0.327 | +0.343 | -0.016 | +15.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.44 | +8.5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | JAX | 24 | +0.290 | +0.418 | -0.128 | +7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.18 | +16.3 |
| Andy Dalton | CHI | BAL | 25 | +0.228 | +0.239 | -0.011 | +5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.40 | -15.3 |
| Tom Brady | TB | NYG | 46 | +0.140 | +0.142 | -0.003 | +6.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.27 | -1.1 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NO | 27 | +0.123 | +0.020 | +0.103 | +3.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.04 | -5.5 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | WAS | 28 | +0.090 | +0.094 | -0.004 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.00 | +8.5 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | SF | 28 | +0.081 | +0.065 | +0.016 | +2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.5 | -0.10 | -0.8 |
| Joe Flacco | NYJ | MIA | 41 | +0.081 | +0.023 | +0.058 | +3.3 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 2 | -8.0 | +0.12 | +2.8 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | LV | 32 | +0.025 | +0.087 | -0.062 | +0.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 3 | -8.8 | +0.11 | +1.9 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | LAC | 47 | +0.003 | +0.011 | -0.008 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.20 | -4.2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | HOU | TEN | 24 | -0.026 | -0.012 | -0.013 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.03 | -8.9 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | IND | 36 | -0.029 | -0.035 | +0.007 | -1.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.01 | -3.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | DAL | 40 | -0.111 | -0.189 | +0.078 | -4.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.1 | 3 | -8.2 | -0.09 | -1.9 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | ARI | 30 | -0.145 | -0.162 | +0.018 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.7 | -0.07 | -5.6 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | CHI | 42 | -0.156 | -0.165 | +0.010 | -6.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 6 | -10.0 | +0.11 | -0.8 |
| Mac Jones | NE | ATL | 29 | -0.169 | -0.091 | -0.078 | -4.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.00 | +12.2 |
| Trevor Siemian | NO | PHI | 41 | -0.227 | -0.201 | -0.025 | -9.3 | 2 / 0 | -12.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.27 | -4.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | HOU | 54 | -0.287 | -0.185 | -0.102 | -15.5 | 4 / 0 | -20.4 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.36 | +3.8 |
| Derek Carr | LV | CIN | 29 | -0.329 | -0.307 | -0.022 | -9.5 | 1 / 1 | -11.8 | 2 | -8.0 | +0.02 | +3.3 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | KC | 48 | -0.356 | -0.322 | -0.034 | -17.1 | 2 / 1 | -10.3 | 5 | -8.9 | -0.32 | +1.6 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | NE | 32 | -0.360 | -0.382 | +0.023 | -11.5 | 2 / 0 | -8.9 | 4 | -6.9 | -0.24 | -2.9 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | BAL | 13 | -0.389 | -0.378 | -0.011 | -5.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -6.1 | -0.20 | -16.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | DET | 30 | -0.389 | -0.238 | -0.151 | -11.7 | 2 / 0 | -5.8 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.23 | -11.8 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | TB | 40 | -0.482 | -0.534 | +0.052 | -19.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 2 | -5.0 | -0.10 | -1.7 |
| Tim Boyle | DET | CLE | 23 | -0.536 | -0.531 | -0.005 | -12.3 | 2 / 0 | -6.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.34 | -7.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.