Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL L | 13–31 | -8.5dog 9.5 | -0.23 → -0.20 | +0.29 → +0.27 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 66% | 1 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 31–13 | +8.5fav 9.5 | +0.29 → +0.25 | -0.23 → -0.18 | +0.43 | 99%raw 100% | 34% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| ARI L | 12–30 | -31.0fav 13.0 | -0.20 → -0.30 | +0.05 → +0.10 | -0.40 | 1%raw 3% | 0% – 50% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET W | 30–12 | +31.0dog 13.0 | +0.05 → +0.08 | -0.20 → -0.23 | +0.31 | 97%raw 97% | 50% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| CAR L | 14–31 | -3.0dog 14.0 | -0.20 → -0.14 | +0.11 → +0.00 | -0.14 | 17%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 1 |
| @ BUF W | 31–14 | +3.0fav 14.0 | +0.11 → +0.14 | -0.20 → -0.12 | +0.26 | 95%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| DAL W | 21–6 | +3.5fav 11.5 | +0.03 → +0.02 | -0.31 → -0.21 | +0.23 | 93%raw 99% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 4 |
| @ NYG L | 6–21 | -3.5dog 11.5 | -0.31 → -0.27 | +0.03 → +0.00 | -0.28 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 61% | 4 / 1 |
| KC W | 34–28 | +3.0fav 3.0 | +0.17 → +0.16 | -0.02 → -0.06 | +0.22 | 92%raw 92% | 9% – 83% | 2 / 2 |
| @ LAC L | 28–34 | -3.0dog 3.0 | -0.02 → -0.05 | +0.17 → +0.05 | -0.09 | 26%raw 8% | 17% – 91% | 2 / 2 |
| WAS L | 17–27 | +0.0dog 10.0 | -0.13 → -0.14 | +0.12 → +0.13 | -0.27 | 5%raw 3% | 0% – 77% | 0 / 2 |
| @ PHI W | 27–17 | +0.0fav 10.0 | +0.12 → +0.12 | -0.13 → -0.08 | +0.19 | 90%raw 97% | 23% – 100% | 2 / 0 |
| NO W | 9–0 | +20.5dog 11.5 | -0.29 → -0.22 | -0.30 → -0.39 | +0.17 | 87%raw 55% | 35% – 99% | 0 / 2 |
| @ TB L | 0–9 | -20.5fav 11.5 | -0.30 → -0.22 | -0.29 → -0.26 | +0.04 | 61%raw 45% | 1% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| SEA L | 10–20 | -2.5dog 7.5 | -0.23 → -0.15 | -0.08 → -0.11 | -0.04 | 39%raw 12% | 0% – 72% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LA W | 20–10 | +2.5fav 7.5 | -0.08 → -0.10 | -0.23 → -0.26 | +0.16 | 86%raw 88% | 28% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| GB W | 31–30 | -8.5fav 9.5 | +0.36 → +0.36 | +0.23 → +0.21 | +0.15 | 84%raw 86% | 26% – 96% | 0 / 0 |
| @ BAL L | 30–31 | +8.5dog 9.5 | +0.23 → +0.24 | +0.36 → +0.26 | -0.02 | 45%raw 14% | 4% – 74% | 0 / 0 |
| NE L | 17–27 | -11.0fav 1.0 | -0.08 → -0.07 | +0.00 → -0.04 | -0.03 | 43%raw 24% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 1 |
| @ IND W | 27–17 | +11.0dog 1.0 | +0.00 → +0.01 | -0.08 → -0.11 | +0.12 | 78%raw 76% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| CIN W | 15–10 | +8.0dog 3.0 | -0.02 → -0.02 | -0.16 → -0.13 | +0.11 | 78%raw 87% | 33% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DEN L | 10–15 | -8.0fav 3.0 | -0.16 → -0.17 | -0.02 → -0.02 | -0.15 | 16%raw 13% | 1% – 67% | 1 / 0 |
| LV W | 16–14 | -1.0fav 3.0 | -0.01 → -0.02 | -0.02 → -0.04 | +0.02 | 57%raw 54% | 27% – 87% | 2 / 0 |
| @ CLE L | 14–16 | +1.0dog 3.0 | -0.02 → -0.07 | -0.01 → -0.00 | -0.06 | 33%raw 46% | 13% – 73% | 0 / 2 |
| TEN L | 13–19 | -5.0dog 1.0 | -0.20 → -0.20 | -0.24 → -0.20 | +0.00 | 51%raw 63% | 2% – 86% | 4 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 19–13 | +5.0fav 1.0 | -0.24 → -0.25 | -0.20 → -0.25 | -0.01 | 49%raw 37% | 14% – 98% | 0 / 4 |
| MIN W | 17–9 | +1.0fav 7.0 | -0.10 → -0.11 | -0.16 → -0.09 | -0.02 | 44%raw 71% | 39% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ CHI L | 9–17 | -1.0dog 7.0 | -0.16 → -0.17 | -0.10 → -0.12 | -0.05 | 35%raw 29% | 0% – 61% | 2 / 1 |
| NYJ L | 24–31 | +3.5dog 10.5 | -0.17 → -0.14 | -0.03 → +0.01 | -0.15 | 15%raw 12% | 1% – 81% | 1 / 3 |
| @ MIA W | 31–24 | -3.5fav 10.5 | -0.03 → -0.11 | -0.17 → -0.08 | -0.03 | 42%raw 88% | 19% – 99% | 3 / 1 |
| HOU W | 30–16 | +20.0dog 6.0 | -0.02 → -0.11 | -0.08 → -0.00 | -0.10 | 24%raw 69% | 38% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| @ JAX L | 16–30 | -20.0fav 6.0 | -0.08 → -0.16 | -0.02 → +0.05 | -0.21 | 9%raw 31% | 0% – 62% | 0 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | BAL | 34 | +0.567 | +0.564 | +0.003 | +19.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.8 | +0.52 | +13.8 |
| Jared Goff | DET | ARI | 28 | +0.517 | +0.483 | +0.033 | +14.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.27 | +6.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | ATL | 23 | +0.462 | +0.525 | -0.063 | +10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.31 | +11.8 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | WAS | 29 | +0.205 | +0.207 | -0.003 | +5.9 | 1 / 1 | -11.9 | 3 | -9.5 | +0.15 | +11.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 48 | +0.192 | +0.194 | -0.003 | +9.2 | 1 / 1 | -10.4 | 1 | -4.4 | +0.48 | -1.0 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | CAR | 38 | +0.187 | +0.181 | +0.005 | +7.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 4 | -2.6 | +0.08 | -3.6 |
| Drew Lock | DEN | CIN | 13 | +0.181 | +0.201 | -0.020 | +2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.2 | +0.08 | -6.3 |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL | GB | 42 | +0.119 | +0.092 | +0.028 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.7 | -0.10 | +3.4 |
| Jake Fromm | NYG | DAL | 13 | +0.025 | -0.048 | +0.073 | +0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.7 | -0.01 | -5.3 |
| Nick Mullens | CLE | LV | 29 | +0.016 | +0.079 | -0.064 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | +4.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NYG | 40 | +0.002 | +0.009 | -0.006 | +0.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.0 | 3 | -8.1 | +0.12 | +7.0 |
| Mac Jones | NE | IND | 46 | -0.008 | -0.016 | +0.009 | -0.3 | 2 / 0 | -10.5 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.14 | -4.5 |
| Derek Carr | LV | CLE | 39 | -0.019 | -0.026 | +0.007 | -0.7 | 1 / 1 | -8.3 | 2 | -6.4 | +0.25 | +2.3 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | JAX | 31 | -0.022 | +0.113 | -0.135 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -0.8 | +0.01 | -2.2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | MIN | 41 | -0.057 | -0.070 | +0.013 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.5 | -0.23 | +5.9 |
| Taysom Hill | NO | TB | 29 | -0.067 | -0.128 | +0.061 | -1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | -0.01 | -13.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SEA | 33 | -0.100 | -0.074 | -0.026 | -3.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 4 | -7.6 | +0.04 | -0.2 |
| Garrett Gilbert | WAS | PHI | 33 | -0.108 | -0.083 | -0.024 | -3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.05 | +0.8 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 38 | -0.126 | -0.098 | -0.028 | -4.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -5.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NYJ | 28 | -0.178 | -0.063 | -0.115 | -5.0 | 2 / 0 | -12.6 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.07 | +1.6 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | SF | 35 | -0.188 | -0.198 | +0.010 | -6.6 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.10 | +3.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | PIT | 36 | -0.193 | -0.240 | +0.047 | -7.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.59 | +5.2 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | DEN | 26 | -0.214 | -0.220 | +0.007 | -5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | +0.01 | +1.6 |
| Tom Brady | TB | NO | 52 | -0.223 | -0.315 | +0.092 | -11.6 | 1 / 0 | -3.1 | 4 | -7.9 | -0.34 | -14.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 40 | -0.227 | -0.127 | -0.100 | -9.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | -0.25 | -7.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CHI | 27 | -0.240 | -0.246 | +0.006 | -6.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.16 | -3.9 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | LA | 34 | -0.250 | -0.342 | +0.092 | -8.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.19 | -3.3 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | BUF | 43 | -0.287 | -0.353 | +0.065 | -12.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.2 | 4 | -8.2 | -0.38 | -15.9 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | TEN | 28 | -0.298 | -0.273 | -0.025 | -8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.7 | -0.22 | -7.3 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | MIA | 29 | -0.352 | -0.401 | +0.049 | -10.2 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 6 | -13.1 | -0.35 | -12.9 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | CIN | 24 | -0.466 | -0.446 | -0.020 | -11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.19 | -10.2 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | DET | 44 | -0.482 | -0.327 | -0.155 | -21.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -5.3 | -0.23 | -11.0 |
| Mike Glennon | NYG | DAL | 24 | -0.528 | -0.601 | +0.073 | -12.7 | 3 / 0 | -12.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.28 | -12.3 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | NE | 13 | -0.578 | -0.605 | +0.027 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.09 | -25.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.