Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE L | 7–45 | -35.5dog 2.5 | -0.18 → -0.18 | +0.50 → +0.49 | -0.67 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 65% | 1 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 45–7 | +35.5fav 2.5 | +0.50 → +0.50 | -0.18 → -0.21 | +0.71 | 100%raw 100% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| CAR W | 34–10 | +31.0dog 7.0 | -0.01 → +0.02 | -0.58 → -0.62 | +0.64 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 2 / 2 |
| @ ARI L | 10–34 | -31.0fav 7.0 | -0.58 → -0.58 | -0.01 → +0.07 | -0.65 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 2 / 2 |
| ATL L | 3–43 | -32.0dog 8.0 | -0.46 → -0.43 | +0.17 → +0.15 | -0.58 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 3 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 43–3 | +32.0fav 8.0 | +0.17 → +0.13 | -0.46 → -0.41 | +0.54 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| KC W | 41–14 | +24.5fav 2.5 | +0.39 → +0.36 | -0.16 → -0.16 | +0.52 | 100%raw 100% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| @ LV L | 14–41 | -24.5dog 2.5 | -0.16 → -0.20 | +0.39 → +0.28 | -0.47 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 65% | 2 / 0 |
| LA L | 10–31 | -24.5fav 3.5 | -0.22 → -0.18 | +0.16 → +0.13 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ SF W | 31–10 | +24.5dog 3.5 | +0.16 → +0.24 | -0.22 → -0.25 | +0.49 | 100%raw 99% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| BUF W | 45–17 | +15.0fav 13.0 | +0.46 → +0.39 | -0.17 → -0.07 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 2 / 5 |
| @ NYJ L | 17–45 | -15.0dog 13.0 | -0.17 → -0.10 | +0.46 → +0.36 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 5 / 2 |
| SEA L | 0–17 | -14.0dog 3.0 | -0.30 → -0.31 | +0.06 → -0.05 | -0.26 | 5%raw 1% | 0% – 57% | 2 / 1 |
| @ GB W | 17–0 | +14.0fav 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.05 | -0.30 → -0.34 | +0.39 | 99%raw 99% | 43% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| PHI W | 30–13 | +18.0dog 1.0 | +0.13 → +0.14 | -0.26 → -0.24 | +0.37 | 98%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DEN L | 13–30 | -18.0fav 1.0 | -0.26 → -0.28 | +0.13 → +0.14 | -0.42 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 1 / 1 |
| MIN W | 27–20 | +10.0dog 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.12 → -0.17 | +0.30 | 97%raw 97% | 27% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ LAC L | 20–27 | -10.0fav 3.0 | -0.12 → -0.14 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.25 | 6%raw 3% | 1% – 73% | 1 / 1 |
| BAL L | 10–22 | -20.5fav 8.5 | -0.27 → -0.25 | -0.04 → -0.00 | -0.24 | 6%raw 4% | 0% – 62% | 2 / 0 |
| @ MIA W | 22–10 | +20.5dog 8.5 | -0.04 → -0.05 | -0.27 → -0.30 | +0.25 | 94%raw 96% | 38% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| NO L | 21–23 | +1.0dog 3.0 | +0.13 → +0.13 | -0.07 → -0.11 | +0.24 | 93%raw 93% | 4% – 62% | 0 / 0 |
| @ TEN W | 23–21 | -1.0fav 3.0 | -0.07 → +0.02 | +0.13 → +0.17 | -0.15 | 16%raw 7% | 38% – 96% | 0 / 0 |
| TB L | 19–29 | -20.0fav 10.0 | -0.02 → -0.03 | +0.06 → +0.11 | -0.14 | 17%raw 27% | 1% – 43% | 2 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 29–19 | +20.0dog 10.0 | +0.06 → +0.13 | -0.02 → -0.10 | +0.24 | 93%raw 73% | 57% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| JAX L | 17–23 | +4.5dog 10.5 | -0.03 → -0.01 | -0.05 → -0.09 | +0.08 | 71%raw 55% | 1% – 45% | 1 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 23–17 | -4.5fav 10.5 | -0.05 → -0.14 | -0.03 → +0.04 | -0.18 | 12%raw 45% | 55% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| DET T | 16–16 | +9.0dog 9.0 | -0.11 → -0.10 | -0.13 → -0.09 | -0.01 | 48%raw 60% | 4% – 87% | 0 / 3 |
| @ PIT T | 16–16 | -9.0fav 9.0 | -0.13 → -0.24 | -0.11 → -0.06 | -0.18 | 12%raw 40% | 13% – 96% | 3 / 0 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | LA | 20 | +0.888 | +0.771 | +0.117 | +17.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.25 | +8.0 |
| Mac Jones | NE | CLE | 25 | +0.677 | +0.647 | +0.030 | +16.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.28 | +18.8 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | ATL | 31 | +0.673 | +0.731 | -0.058 | +20.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.33 | +10.7 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | NYJ | 30 | +0.532 | +0.632 | -0.100 | +16.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.26 | +16.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 50 | +0.446 | +0.498 | -0.052 | +22.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.55 | +5.2 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | TB | 37 | +0.304 | +0.234 | +0.070 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.6 | +0.22 | +12.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DEN | 25 | +0.216 | +0.203 | +0.014 | +5.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.16 | +12.9 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | ARI | 29 | +0.208 | +0.183 | +0.025 | +6.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | +3.9 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | NO | 29 | +0.187 | +0.084 | +0.103 | +5.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.09 | +2.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | LAC | 39 | +0.166 | +0.170 | -0.004 | +6.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.9 | 2 | -7.7 | +0.29 | +3.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | BAL | 15 | +0.139 | +0.151 | -0.012 | +2.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.01 | +4.8 |
| Trevor Siemian | NO | TEN | 39 | +0.133 | +0.147 | -0.015 | +5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | +0.03 | -4.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | SEA | 38 | +0.022 | +0.045 | -0.023 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.02 | -5.4 |
| Derek Carr | LV | KC | 37 | -0.027 | -0.001 | -0.026 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.6 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.05 | +1.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | MIA | BAL | 25 | -0.092 | -0.080 | -0.012 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.8 | +0.00 | -5.8 |
| Tom Brady | TB | WAS | 34 | -0.094 | -0.085 | -0.009 | -3.2 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -1.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | MIA | 45 | -0.121 | -0.175 | +0.054 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -7.3 | -0.46 | -3.9 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | IND | 39 | -0.163 | -0.168 | +0.006 | -6.3 | 0 / 1 | -2.7 | 3 | -5.3 | -0.36 | -18.3 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | PHI | 37 | -0.168 | -0.142 | -0.026 | -6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.03 | -4.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | MIN | 36 | -0.177 | -0.186 | +0.009 | -6.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 2 | -5.1 | -0.11 | -10.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | NE | 23 | -0.192 | -0.225 | +0.033 | -4.4 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 2 | -1.7 | -0.15 | -11.0 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | SF | 43 | -0.196 | -0.204 | +0.008 | -8.4 | 2 / 0 | -7.9 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.16 | -2.1 |
| Mike White | NYJ | BUF | 45 | -0.202 | -0.271 | +0.069 | -9.1 | 4 / 0 | -14.3 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.20 | -11.4 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | JAX | 35 | -0.231 | -0.090 | -0.140 | -8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.06 | -5.7 |
| Case Keenum | CLE | NE | 15 | -0.256 | -0.289 | +0.033 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.1 | -0.00 | +4.1 |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT | DET | 50 | -0.277 | -0.129 | -0.149 | -13.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.45 | -7.0 |
| Jared Goff | DET | PIT | 29 | -0.377 | -0.419 | +0.042 | -10.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.8 | -0.03 | -13.7 |
| Chris Streveler | ARI | CAR | 11 | -0.403 | -0.387 | -0.016 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | +0.00 | -8.5 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | GB | 43 | -0.463 | -0.476 | +0.013 | -19.9 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.56 | -9.2 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | DAL | 23 | -0.585 | -0.648 | +0.064 | -13.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.8 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.07 | -23.5 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | CAR | 22 | -0.718 | -0.702 | -0.016 | -15.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.7 | 2 | -7.5 | -0.24 | -12.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.