Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI W | 37–14 | +26.0dog 3.0 | +0.22 → +0.22 | -0.27 → -0.30 | +0.52 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ CLE L | 14–37 | -26.0fav 3.0 | -0.27 → -0.25 | +0.22 → +0.21 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 3 / 0 |
| LAC L | 6–34 | -25.0dog 3.0 | -0.33 → -0.35 | +0.06 → +0.04 | -0.38 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 49% | 1 / 2 |
| @ BAL W | 34–6 | +25.0fav 3.0 | +0.06 → +0.04 | -0.33 → -0.38 | +0.43 | 99%raw 99% | 51% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| HOU L | 3–31 | -17.5dog 10.5 | -0.22 → -0.21 | +0.28 → +0.25 | -0.46 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 48% | 3 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 31–3 | +17.5fav 10.5 | +0.28 → +0.21 | -0.22 → -0.16 | +0.37 | 99%raw 100% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| MIN W | 34–28 | +3.5fav 2.5 | +0.10 → +0.13 | -0.29 → -0.22 | +0.35 | 98%raw 100% | 27% – 98% | 1 / 3 |
| @ CAR L | 28–34 | -3.5dog 2.5 | -0.29 → -0.31 | +0.10 → +0.08 | -0.39 | 1%raw 0% | 2% – 73% | 3 / 1 |
| LA W | 38–11 | +19.5fav 7.5 | +0.17 → +0.16 | -0.28 → -0.18 | +0.34 | 98%raw 100% | 32% – 100% | 2 / 4 |
| @ NYG L | 11–38 | -19.5dog 7.5 | -0.28 → -0.21 | +0.17 → +0.14 | -0.35 | 2%raw 0% | 0% – 68% | 4 / 2 |
| BUF L | 31–34 | -9.0fav 6.0 | +0.11 → +0.11 | +0.25 → +0.22 | -0.11 | 22%raw 12% | 6% – 79% | 1 / 1 |
| @ TEN W | 34–31 | +9.0dog 6.0 | +0.25 → +0.33 | +0.11 → -0.00 | +0.33 | 98%raw 88% | 21% – 94% | 1 / 1 |
| LV W | 34–24 | +15.0dog 5.0 | +0.32 → +0.33 | -0.00 → +0.03 | +0.30 | 97%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| @ DEN L | 24–34 | -15.0fav 5.0 | -0.00 → -0.05 | +0.32 → +0.34 | -0.39 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 4 / 0 |
| TB W | 28–22 | -1.0fav 7.0 | +0.26 → +0.27 | -0.00 → +0.00 | +0.26 | 95%raw 97% | 42% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PHI L | 22–28 | +1.0dog 7.0 | -0.00 → +0.07 | +0.26 → +0.19 | -0.11 | 22%raw 3% | 1% – 58% | 1 / 1 |
| CIN W | 34–11 | +19.5fav 3.5 | +0.20 → +0.11 | -0.18 → -0.14 | +0.25 | 94%raw 99% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET L | 11–34 | -19.5dog 3.5 | -0.18 → -0.20 | +0.20 → +0.20 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 1 |
| DAL W | 35–29 | +2.5fav 3.5 | +0.17 → +0.19 | -0.04 → -0.06 | +0.24 | 94%raw 95% | 14% – 82% | 2 / 2 |
| @ NE L | 29–35 | -2.5dog 3.5 | -0.04 → +0.01 | +0.17 → +0.15 | -0.14 | 17%raw 5% | 18% – 86% | 2 / 2 |
| KC W | 31–13 | +12.0fav 6.0 | +0.13 → +0.12 | -0.17 → -0.12 | +0.24 | 93%raw 98% | 22% – 100% | 3 / 2 |
| @ WAS L | 13–31 | -12.0dog 6.0 | -0.17 → -0.20 | +0.13 → +0.01 | -0.21 | 9%raw 2% | 0% – 78% | 2 / 3 |
| GB W | 24–14 | +4.5fav 5.5 | +0.24 → +0.24 | +0.02 → +0.10 | +0.14 | 83%raw 95% | 17% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ CHI L | 14–24 | -4.5dog 5.5 | +0.02 → +0.03 | +0.24 → +0.14 | -0.11 | 22%raw 5% | 0% – 83% | 1 / 0 |
| SEA L | 20–23 | +2.5dog 5.5 | -0.05 → -0.04 | +0.00 → +0.05 | -0.09 | 27%raw 33% | 7% – 75% | 1 / 1 |
| @ PIT W | 23–20 | -2.5fav 5.5 | +0.00 → -0.01 | -0.05 → -0.08 | +0.07 | 68%raw 67% | 25% – 93% | 1 / 1 |
| MIA L | 20–23 | -5.5fav 2.5 | +0.13 → +0.05 | +0.09 → +0.17 | -0.12 | 21%raw 65% | 14% – 79% | 1 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 23–20 | +5.5dog 2.5 | +0.09 → +0.13 | +0.13 → +0.18 | -0.05 | 36%raw 35% | 21% – 86% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA | NYG | 30 | +0.624 | +0.619 | +0.004 | +18.7 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 2 | -5.4 | +0.28 | +11.7 |
| Derek Carr | LV | DEN | 29 | +0.590 | +0.569 | +0.021 | +17.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.37 | +9.7 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | NE | 52 | +0.482 | +0.433 | +0.050 | +25.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.95 | +10.1 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | CLE | 32 | +0.475 | +0.456 | +0.020 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.18 | +9.5 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | BUF | 29 | +0.320 | +0.242 | +0.078 | +9.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.4 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +2.6 |
| Tom Brady | TB | PHI | 42 | +0.307 | +0.321 | -0.014 | +12.9 | 1 / 0 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.45 | +12.9 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CAR | 48 | +0.289 | +0.282 | +0.006 | +13.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.64 | +9.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | MIA | 43 | +0.282 | +0.218 | +0.064 | +12.1 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -5.7 | +0.33 | -5.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | CHI | 26 | +0.282 | +0.261 | +0.021 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.4 | +0.24 | +12.8 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | TEN | 50 | +0.267 | +0.279 | -0.012 | +13.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 3 | -1.7 | +0.59 | +13.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | WAS | 50 | +0.247 | +0.247 | +0.000 | +12.3 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.25 | +5.1 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | HOU | 22 | +0.212 | +0.303 | -0.091 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.22 | -1.1 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | DET | 31 | +0.200 | +0.338 | -0.138 | +6.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 2 | -4.9 | +0.12 | -2.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | JAX | 46 | +0.059 | +0.190 | -0.131 | +2.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +5.5 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | LV | 54 | +0.006 | +0.072 | -0.066 | +0.3 | 3 / 0 | -7.0 | 5 | -4.8 | -0.13 | +10.1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | SEA | 41 | -0.052 | -0.027 | -0.025 | -2.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 1 | -5.5 | -0.07 | +5.8 |
| Mac Jones | NE | DAL | 24 | -0.056 | -0.135 | +0.079 | -1.3 | 1 / 1 | -13.0 | 2 | -7.6 | -0.15 | +6.9 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | GB | 31 | -0.115 | -0.136 | +0.021 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.14 | -0.3 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | LAC | 30 | -0.123 | -0.113 | -0.010 | -3.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.04 | +5.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | TB | 29 | -0.163 | -0.227 | +0.063 | -4.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 2 | -1.3 | -0.08 | -11.0 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | LA | 56 | -0.168 | -0.263 | +0.095 | -9.4 | 3 / 1 | -16.6 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.21 | -9.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | ARI | 33 | -0.169 | -0.183 | +0.014 | -5.6 | 1 / 2 | -14.0 | 5 | -16.4 | -0.12 | +0.7 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CIN | 43 | -0.170 | -0.151 | -0.019 | -7.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.39 | -2.8 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | KC | 39 | -0.177 | -0.147 | -0.030 | -6.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.12 | -6.8 |
| Geno Smith | SEA | PIT | 36 | -0.187 | -0.234 | +0.047 | -6.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 5 | -11.5 | -0.43 | +0.5 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | IND | 45 | -0.196 | -0.200 | +0.004 | -8.8 | 2 / 0 | -9.9 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.19 | -2.0 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | MIN | 46 | -0.343 | -0.349 | +0.007 | -15.8 | 1 / 1 | -11.2 | 4 | -9.6 | -0.37 | -20.3 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | BAL | 41 | -0.364 | -0.345 | -0.019 | -14.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.09 | -12.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.