Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF W | 31–6 | +18.0fav 7.0 | +0.15 → +0.24 | -0.33 → -0.30 | +0.55 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 6–31 | -18.0dog 7.0 | -0.33 → -0.27 | +0.15 → +0.04 | -0.31 | 3%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 1 / 2 |
| PIT L | 10–41 | -27.5dog 3.5 | -0.31 → -0.33 | +0.19 → +0.19 | -0.52 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 46% | 3 / 1 |
| @ CIN W | 41–10 | +27.5fav 3.5 | +0.19 → +0.21 | -0.31 → -0.27 | +0.48 | 100%raw 100% | 54% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| TEN L | 13–36 | -15.5dog 7.5 | -0.09 → -0.08 | +0.23 → +0.22 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 43% | 4 / 0 |
| @ NE W | 36–13 | +15.5fav 7.5 | +0.23 → +0.24 | -0.09 → -0.13 | +0.37 | 98%raw 99% | 57% – 100% | 0 / 4 |
| LA L | 28–36 | -10.0fav 2.0 | -0.14 → -0.13 | +0.09 → -0.02 | -0.11 | 22%raw 4% | 0% – 45% | 2 / 0 |
| @ GB W | 36–28 | +10.0dog 2.0 | +0.09 → +0.17 | -0.14 → -0.17 | +0.34 | 98%raw 96% | 55% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| CAR L | 10–33 | -24.0fav 1.0 | -0.31 → -0.29 | +0.07 → +0.11 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 53% | 3 / 1 |
| @ MIA W | 33–10 | +24.0dog 1.0 | +0.07 → +0.09 | -0.31 → -0.24 | +0.33 | 98%raw 99% | 47% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| MIN L | 26–34 | -4.5dog 3.5 | -0.12 → -0.08 | +0.12 → +0.10 | -0.18 | 12%raw 4% | 1% – 70% | 2 / 1 |
| @ SF W | 34–26 | +4.5fav 3.5 | +0.12 → +0.12 | -0.12 → -0.15 | +0.27 | 95%raw 96% | 30% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| TB W | 38–31 | +4.0fav 3.0 | +0.09 → +0.12 | -0.02 → -0.06 | +0.18 | 88%raw 82% | 9% – 96% | 2 / 4 |
| @ IND L | 31–38 | -4.0dog 3.0 | -0.02 → +0.06 | +0.09 → +0.01 | +0.04 | 62%raw 18% | 4% – 91% | 4 / 2 |
| LAC L | 13–28 | -17.5fav 2.5 | +0.01 → +0.01 | +0.12 → +0.16 | -0.15 | 15%raw 17% | 0% – 51% | 2 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 28–13 | +17.5dog 2.5 | +0.12 → +0.11 | +0.01 → -0.04 | +0.15 | 84%raw 83% | 49% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| PHI L | 7–13 | -10.0fav 4.0 | -0.19 → -0.21 | -0.05 → +0.06 | -0.27 | 5%raw 14% | 1% – 58% | 4 / 0 |
| @ NYG W | 13–7 | +10.0dog 4.0 | -0.05 → -0.06 | -0.19 → -0.19 | +0.13 | 81%raw 86% | 42% – 99% | 0 / 4 |
| SEA L | 15–17 | -3.0fav 1.0 | -0.07 → -0.09 | +0.01 → +0.07 | -0.15 | 15%raw 24% | 2% – 73% | 1 / 1 |
| @ WAS W | 17–15 | +3.0dog 1.0 | +0.01 → +0.00 | -0.07 → -0.10 | +0.10 | 75%raw 76% | 27% – 98% | 1 / 1 |
| CLE L | 10–16 | -3.0dog 3.0 | -0.20 → -0.21 | -0.13 → -0.16 | -0.06 | 35%raw 28% | 1% – 53% | 2 / 4 |
| @ BAL W | 16–10 | +3.0fav 3.0 | -0.13 → -0.15 | -0.20 → -0.23 | +0.08 | 72%raw 72% | 47% – 99% | 4 / 2 |
| NYJ W | 21–14 | +10.0dog 3.0 | -0.07 → -0.15 | -0.28 → -0.22 | +0.07 | 68%raw 95% | 14% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
| @ HOU L | 14–21 | -10.0fav 3.0 | -0.28 → -0.37 | -0.07 → +0.03 | -0.40 | 1%raw 5% | 1% – 86% | 1 / 1 |
| LV W | 36–33 | +10.0dog 7.0 | +0.07 → +0.12 | +0.09 → +0.06 | +0.06 | 67%raw 45% | 45% – 97% | 0 / 0 |
| @ DAL L | 33–36 | -10.0fav 7.0 | +0.09 → +0.04 | +0.07 → +0.08 | -0.04 | 40%raw 55% | 3% – 55% | 0 / 0 |
| ATL W | 21–14 | +5.5fav 1.5 | +0.11 → +0.02 | -0.03 → +0.04 | -0.02 | 44%raw 87% | 36% – 99% | 1 / 2 |
| @ JAX L | 14–21 | -5.5dog 1.5 | -0.03 → -0.08 | +0.11 → +0.17 | -0.25 | 6%raw 13% | 1% – 64% | 2 / 1 |
| CHI W | 16–14 | +0.0fav 2.0 | +0.05 → -0.05 | -0.03 → +0.01 | -0.06 | 33%raw 75% | 20% – 81% | 1 / 1 |
| @ DET L | 14–16 | +0.0dog 2.0 | -0.03 → -0.05 | +0.05 → +0.13 | -0.17 | 12%raw 25% | 19% – 80% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF | NO | 30 | +0.493 | +0.381 | +0.113 | +14.8 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -3.2 | +0.06 | +15.6 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | LAC | 18 | +0.427 | +0.431 | -0.003 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -4.3 |
| Mac Jones | NE | TEN | 34 | +0.413 | +0.422 | -0.009 | +14.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.34 | +8.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | LA | 47 | +0.283 | +0.179 | +0.104 | +13.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.25 | +0.0 |
| Derek Carr | LV | DAL | 42 | +0.274 | +0.185 | +0.089 | +11.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.21 | -2.2 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | CAR | 33 | +0.198 | +0.194 | +0.004 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -6.4 | +0.10 | +13.8 |
| Andy Dalton | CHI | DET | 40 | +0.158 | +0.299 | -0.140 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.46 | -2.3 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | SEA | 36 | +0.153 | +0.175 | -0.021 | +5.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.24 | +7.3 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 26 | +0.143 | +0.088 | +0.055 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.07 | +20.3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | MIN | 28 | +0.132 | +0.116 | +0.016 | +3.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.11 | -0.1 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | WAS | 34 | +0.106 | +0.111 | -0.005 | +3.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.01 | +0.9 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | LV | 49 | +0.104 | +0.165 | -0.062 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.24 | -1.9 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | PHI | 31 | +0.096 | +0.115 | -0.019 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.08 | -3.1 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | TB | 47 | +0.086 | +0.021 | +0.065 | +4.1 | 2 / 1 | -13.1 | 3 | -8.6 | -0.10 | -5.0 |
| Jared Goff | DET | CHI | 26 | +0.050 | +0.037 | +0.013 | +1.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 1 | -5.1 | -0.01 | +11.2 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | JAX | 30 | +0.029 | +0.162 | -0.134 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -1.5 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.08 | -2.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | SF | 34 | -0.026 | -0.040 | +0.014 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.02 | -2.5 |
| Tom Brady | TB | IND | 36 | -0.029 | -0.037 | +0.008 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.06 | +1.0 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | DEN | 48 | -0.033 | -0.041 | +0.008 | -1.6 | 2 / 0 | -14.2 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.08 | -3.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | GB | 41 | -0.035 | -0.057 | +0.021 | -1.5 | 1 / 1 | -12.8 | 2 | -8.1 | -0.15 | -8.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | BAL | 39 | -0.073 | -0.057 | -0.016 | -2.8 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 2 | -6.0 | -0.45 | -11.1 |
| Trevor Siemian | NO | BUF | 32 | -0.093 | -0.160 | +0.066 | -3.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.13 | -8.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | ATL | 44 | -0.122 | -0.046 | -0.076 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.11 | -5.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | 34 | -0.319 | -0.322 | +0.003 | -10.9 | 4 / 0 | -12.5 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.40 | -5.2 |
| PJ Walker | CAR | MIA | 14 | -0.336 | -0.381 | +0.045 | -4.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 4 | -4.8 | -0.01 | +0.1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | CIN | 44 | -0.355 | -0.332 | -0.023 | -15.6 | 2 / 1 | -19.8 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.21 | -5.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | NE | 23 | -0.378 | -0.409 | +0.032 | -8.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.09 | -13.2 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | HOU | 28 | -0.440 | -0.335 | -0.106 | -12.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 4 | -8.3 | -0.29 | -13.5 |
| Tyrod Taylor | HOU | NYJ | 31 | -0.539 | -0.415 | -0.124 | -16.7 | 1 / 0 | -8.2 | 5 | -9.6 | -0.36 | -1.9 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | MIA | 22 | -0.548 | -0.594 | +0.045 | -12.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.5 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.25 | -42.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | NYG | 31 | -0.581 | -0.561 | -0.020 | -18.0 | 3 / 0 | -11.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.69 | -14.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.