Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB L | 3–38 | -39.0fav 4.0 | -0.39 → -0.31 | +0.32 → +0.37 | -0.68 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 47% | 3 / 0 |
| @ NO W | 38–3 | +39.0dog 4.0 | +0.32 → +0.34 | -0.39 → -0.51 | +0.85 | 100%raw 100% | 53% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| ARI W | 38–13 | +27.5dog 2.5 | +0.19 → +0.19 | -0.33 → -0.37 | +0.56 | 100%raw 100% | 45% – 100% | 1 / 3 |
| @ TEN L | 13–38 | -27.5fav 2.5 | -0.33 → -0.30 | +0.19 → +0.17 | -0.47 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 55% | 3 / 1 |
| CHI L | 14–34 | -10.5dog 9.5 | -0.10 → -0.02 | +0.44 → +0.43 | -0.45 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 59% | 2 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 34–14 | +10.5fav 9.5 | +0.44 → +0.44 | -0.10 → -0.02 | +0.47 | 99%raw 100% | 41% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| PHI W | 32–6 | +29.5dog 3.5 | +0.21 → +0.16 | -0.28 → -0.23 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 31% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ ATL L | 6–32 | -29.5fav 3.5 | -0.28 → -0.30 | +0.21 → +0.22 | -0.51 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 69% | 0 / 0 |
| SEA W | 28–16 | +9.0fav 3.0 | +0.20 → +0.22 | -0.08 → -0.13 | +0.35 | 98%raw 98% | 32% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ IND L | 16–28 | -9.0dog 3.0 | -0.08 → -0.10 | +0.20 → +0.18 | -0.28 | 4%raw 2% | 0% – 68% | 1 / 1 |
| DAL L | 29–31 | +8.0dog 10.0 | +0.12 → +0.20 | +0.05 → -0.03 | +0.23 | 93%raw 73% | 14% – 64% | 1 / 4 |
| @ TB W | 31–29 | -8.0fav 10.0 | +0.05 → +0.10 | +0.12 → +0.10 | +0.00 | 50%raw 27% | 36% – 86% | 4 / 1 |
| PIT W | 23–16 | +13.5dog 6.5 | -0.06 → +0.01 | -0.10 → -0.22 | +0.22 | 92%raw 62% | 14% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ BUF L | 16–23 | -13.5fav 6.5 | -0.10 → -0.09 | -0.06 → -0.02 | -0.07 | 30%raw 38% | 1% – 86% | 1 / 0 |
| SF W | 41–33 | -1.5fav 9.5 | +0.25 → +0.16 | -0.10 → -0.06 | +0.22 | 92%raw 99% | 35% – 100% | 2 / 1 |
| @ DET L | 33–41 | +1.5dog 9.5 | -0.10 → -0.06 | +0.25 → +0.23 | -0.29 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 65% | 1 / 2 |
| DEN W | 27–13 | +11.0fav 3.0 | +0.28 → +0.28 | -0.03 → +0.08 | +0.19 | 90%raw 99% | 35% – 100% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 13–27 | -11.0dog 3.0 | -0.03 → -0.03 | +0.28 → +0.32 | -0.35 | 2%raw 1% | 0% – 65% | 1 / 1 |
| LAC W | 20–16 | +6.5dog 2.5 | +0.11 → +0.11 | -0.10 → -0.05 | +0.15 | 84%raw 95% | 20% – 99% | 2 / 1 |
| @ WAS L | 16–20 | -6.5fav 2.5 | -0.10 → -0.12 | +0.11 → +0.07 | -0.19 | 11%raw 5% | 1% – 80% | 1 / 2 |
| CLE L | 29–33 | +1.5dog 5.5 | +0.26 → +0.24 | +0.36 → +0.25 | -0.01 | 48%raw 20% | 3% – 87% | 2 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 33–29 | -1.5fav 5.5 | +0.36 → +0.36 | +0.26 → +0.25 | +0.11 | 78%raw 80% | 13% – 97% | 0 / 2 |
| BAL L | 27–33 | -9.0fav 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.09 | +0.02 → +0.03 | -0.12 | 21%raw 29% | 4% – 86% | 2 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 33–27 | +9.0dog 3.0 | +0.02 → +0.01 | -0.05 → -0.07 | +0.08 | 71%raw 71% | 14% – 96% | 1 / 2 |
| MIN L | 24–27 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.05 → +0.04 | -0.03 → -0.03 | +0.08 | 70%raw 74% | 6% – 90% | 1 / 0 |
| @ CIN W | 27–24 | +6.0dog 3.0 | -0.03 → -0.04 | +0.05 → +0.03 | -0.06 | 33%raw 26% | 10% – 94% | 0 / 1 |
| JAX L | 21–37 | -19.5fav 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.12 | +0.16 → +0.23 | -0.35 | 2%raw 6% | 0% – 53% | 3 / 0 |
| @ HOU W | 37–21 | +19.5dog 3.5 | +0.16 → +0.07 | -0.04 → +0.03 | +0.04 | 62%raw 94% | 47% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| MIA W | 17–16 | +4.5dog 3.5 | +0.03 → +0.04 | +0.03 → +0.01 | +0.03 | 60%raw 52% | 27% – 85% | 1 / 2 |
| @ NE L | 16–17 | -4.5fav 3.5 | +0.03 → +0.06 | +0.03 → +0.07 | -0.01 | 47%raw 48% | 15% – 73% | 2 / 1 |
| NYJ L | 14–19 | -1.5dog 3.5 | -0.19 → -0.18 | -0.02 → +0.07 | -0.25 | 6%raw 8% | 1% – 49% | 1 / 1 |
| @ CAR W | 19–14 | +1.5fav 3.5 | -0.02 → -0.10 | -0.19 → -0.10 | +0.00 | 51%raw 92% | 51% – 99% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | NO | GB | 20 | +0.869 | +0.825 | +0.044 | +17.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.12 | +10.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | CHI | 27 | +0.728 | +0.698 | +0.030 | +19.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.46 | +8.3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | DET | 25 | +0.685 | +0.813 | -0.128 | +17.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.28 | +6.2 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | NYG | 38 | +0.623 | +0.614 | +0.008 | +23.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.67 | +15.4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | CLE | 39 | +0.519 | +0.497 | +0.022 | +20.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.48 | +15.9 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | IND | 26 | +0.487 | +0.466 | +0.021 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.8 | +0.28 | +19.5 |
| Mac Jones | NE | MIA | 40 | +0.379 | +0.313 | +0.066 | +15.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.38 | +7.6 |
| Tom Brady | TB | DAL | 50 | +0.370 | +0.280 | +0.090 | +18.5 | 2 / 0 | -5.1 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +3.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | KC | 30 | +0.341 | +0.359 | -0.018 | +10.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.0 | 2 | -2.4 | +0.09 | +14.2 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | TEN | 34 | +0.338 | +0.347 | -0.009 | +11.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.23 | +5.1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | LAC | 15 | +0.312 | +0.322 | -0.009 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +18.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | TB | 59 | +0.310 | +0.241 | +0.070 | +18.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.28 | +6.5 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | ATL | 35 | +0.292 | +0.357 | -0.065 | +10.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.1 | +0.20 | +11.6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | HOU | JAX | 34 | +0.287 | +0.413 | -0.126 | +9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.23 | +1.7 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | WAS | 49 | +0.210 | +0.212 | -0.002 | +10.3 | 1 / 1 | -10.3 | 2 | -7.0 | +0.34 | +3.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | CIN | 51 | +0.193 | +0.204 | -0.011 | +9.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | +0.20 | +6.8 |
| Derek Carr | LV | BAL | 57 | +0.158 | +0.165 | -0.007 | +9.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 3 | -4.7 | +0.80 | -3.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | MIN | 31 | +0.145 | +0.128 | +0.016 | +4.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.1 | +0.49 | +11.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | NE | 29 | +0.087 | +0.046 | +0.040 | +2.5 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.11 | -4.6 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | BUF | 34 | +0.048 | -0.024 | +0.072 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.09 | -10.5 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | LV | 33 | +0.008 | +0.071 | -0.064 | +0.2 | 0 / 1 | -4.2 | 3 | -7.6 | +0.16 | -4.2 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | SEA | 41 | -0.016 | +0.007 | -0.024 | -0.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.13 | +1.1 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | DEN | 38 | -0.031 | -0.037 | +0.006 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.17 | -3.5 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | NYJ | 36 | -0.033 | +0.080 | -0.113 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.9 | +0.19 | +10.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | PIT | 54 | -0.062 | -0.113 | +0.051 | -3.3 | 0 / 1 | -3.7 | 3 | -6.7 | -0.31 | -3.4 |
| Jared Goff | DET | SF | 62 | -0.099 | -0.110 | +0.012 | -6.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.5 | 3 | -4.4 | -0.12 | -3.7 |
| Andy Dalton | CHI | LA | 41 | -0.171 | -0.266 | +0.095 | -7.0 | 1 / 1 | -8.8 | 3 | -8.4 | -0.17 | -5.0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | HOU | 52 | -0.173 | -0.074 | -0.099 | -9.0 | 3 / 0 | -14.6 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.11 | -12.0 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | CAR | 44 | -0.180 | -0.175 | -0.005 | -7.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 6 | -9.3 | -0.29 | -9.9 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | PHI | 38 | -0.452 | -0.420 | -0.032 | -17.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -8.4 | -0.06 | -9.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | NO | 29 | -0.460 | -0.550 | +0.090 | -13.3 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.18 | -8.0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | ARI | 41 | -0.467 | -0.480 | +0.014 | -19.1 | 1 / 2 | -14.6 | 6 | -20.8 | -0.25 | -6.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.