Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI L | 6–26 | -12.5dog 7.5 | -0.61 → -0.64 | +0.04 → +0.02 | -0.66 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 0 / 0 |
| @ CLE W | 26–6 | +12.5fav 7.5 | +0.04 → +0.03 | -0.61 → -0.55 | +0.58 | 100%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| WAS L | 21–43 | -14.5dog 7.5 | -0.19 → -0.13 | +0.25 → +0.14 | -0.27 | 4%raw 0% | 0% – 51% | 3 / 0 |
| @ BUF W | 43–21 | +14.5fav 7.5 | +0.25 → +0.25 | -0.19 → -0.14 | +0.39 | 99%raw 100% | 49% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| NO W | 28–13 | +18.0dog 3.0 | +0.07 → +0.07 | -0.27 → -0.30 | +0.37 | 98%raw 99% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ NE L | 13–28 | -18.0fav 3.0 | -0.27 → -0.18 | +0.07 → +0.11 | -0.29 | 4%raw 1% | 0% – 65% | 3 / 0 |
| CAR W | 24–9 | +7.0fav 8.0 | +0.19 → +0.12 | -0.29 → -0.23 | +0.35 | 98%raw 100% | 36% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| @ HOU L | 9–24 | -7.0dog 8.0 | -0.29 → -0.28 | +0.19 → +0.28 | -0.56 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 64% | 0 / 0 |
| NYJ L | 0–26 | -15.5dog 10.5 | -0.51 → -0.53 | -0.01 → +0.02 | -0.55 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 49% | 2 / 1 |
| @ DEN W | 26–0 | +15.5fav 10.5 | -0.01 → -0.10 | -0.51 → -0.43 | +0.33 | 98%raw 100% | 51% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| PHI L | 21–41 | -16.5dog 3.5 | -0.20 → -0.16 | +0.10 → +0.07 | -0.24 | 7%raw 2% | 0% – 47% | 2 / 1 |
| @ DAL W | 41–21 | +16.5fav 3.5 | +0.10 → +0.09 | -0.20 → -0.21 | +0.30 | 97%raw 98% | 53% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| CIN W | 24–10 | +16.5dog 2.5 | +0.14 → +0.16 | -0.17 → -0.12 | +0.28 | 96%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ PIT L | 10–24 | -16.5fav 2.5 | -0.17 → -0.18 | +0.14 → +0.14 | -0.32 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 2 / 1 |
| LAC W | 30–24 | +12.5dog 6.5 | +0.22 → +0.20 | +0.07 → -0.05 | +0.25 | 94%raw 89% | 29% – 94% | 0 / 4 |
| @ KC L | 24–30 | -12.5fav 6.5 | +0.07 → +0.06 | +0.22 → +0.18 | -0.13 | 20%raw 11% | 6% – 71% | 4 / 0 |
| ARI W | 31–19 | +4.0fav 8.0 | +0.22 → +0.13 | -0.16 → -0.09 | +0.22 | 92%raw 99% | 14% – 99% | 1 / 4 |
| @ JAX L | 19–31 | -4.0dog 8.0 | -0.16 → -0.13 | +0.22 → +0.20 | -0.33 | 3%raw 1% | 1% – 86% | 4 / 1 |
| TB L | 24–34 | -11.0fav 1.0 | +0.18 → +0.27 | +0.23 → +0.20 | +0.06 | 67%raw 36% | 0% – 48% | 0 / 0 |
| @ LA W | 34–24 | +11.0dog 1.0 | +0.23 → +0.31 | +0.18 → +0.10 | +0.20 | 91%raw 64% | 52% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| SEA L | 17–30 | -15.0fav 2.0 | +0.10 → +0.09 | +0.23 → +0.22 | -0.12 | 20%raw 14% | 0% – 74% | 0 / 0 |
| @ MIN W | 30–17 | +15.0dog 2.0 | +0.23 → +0.23 | +0.10 → +0.08 | +0.15 | 84%raw 86% | 26% – 100% | 0 / 0 |
| GB W | 30–28 | +5.5dog 3.5 | +0.12 → +0.17 | +0.04 → +0.02 | +0.15 | 84%raw 74% | 30% – 89% | 0 / 2 |
| @ SF L | 28–30 | -5.5fav 3.5 | +0.04 → +0.05 | +0.12 → +0.01 | +0.04 | 60%raw 26% | 11% – 70% | 2 / 0 |
| IND L | 16–25 | -4.5dog 4.5 | -0.05 → -0.05 | -0.00 → -0.04 | -0.01 | 48%raw 36% | 0% – 55% | 0 / 3 |
| @ TEN W | 25–16 | +4.5fav 4.5 | -0.00 → +0.02 | -0.05 → -0.09 | +0.10 | 76%raw 64% | 45% – 100% | 3 / 0 |
| MIA L | 28–31 | +1.0dog 4.0 | -0.09 → -0.13 | +0.02 → +0.02 | -0.16 | 15%raw 20% | 0% – 86% | 0 / 1 |
| @ LV W | 31–28 | -1.0fav 4.0 | +0.02 → +0.05 | -0.09 → -0.05 | +0.10 | 76%raw 80% | 14% – 100% | 1 / 0 |
| BAL W | 19–17 | -5.5fav 7.5 | +0.06 → -0.04 | -0.04 → +0.00 | -0.04 | 38%raw 80% | 18% – 87% | 1 / 0 |
| @ DET L | 17–19 | +5.5dog 7.5 | -0.04 → -0.05 | +0.06 → +0.04 | -0.09 | 26%raw 20% | 13% – 82% | 0 / 1 |
| ATL W | 17–14 | +6.0dog 3.0 | +0.03 → +0.02 | +0.03 → +0.14 | -0.12 | 21%raw 52% | 16% – 76% | 1 / 1 |
| @ NYG L | 14–17 | -6.0fav 3.0 | +0.03 → -0.02 | +0.03 → +0.10 | -0.12 | 21%raw 48% | 24% – 84% | 1 / 1 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | LA | TB | 39 | +0.528 | +0.453 | +0.075 | +20.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.49 | +1.0 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | PIT | 18 | +0.523 | +0.461 | +0.062 | +9.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.29 | +12.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | SEA | 39 | +0.481 | +0.493 | -0.012 | +18.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.58 | +6.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | WAS | 44 | +0.397 | +0.394 | +0.003 | +17.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | +13.9 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | KC | 40 | +0.388 | +0.406 | -0.018 | +15.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.63 | +8.0 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | PHI | 30 | +0.371 | +0.386 | -0.015 | +11.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.7 | 4 | -10.8 | +0.20 | +16.8 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | NYJ | 27 | +0.339 | +0.442 | -0.103 | +9.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.06 | +12.7 |
| Tom Brady | TB | LA | 58 | +0.332 | +0.227 | +0.105 | +19.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.17 | +3.8 |
| Taylor Heinicke | WAS | BUF | 25 | +0.270 | +0.194 | +0.076 | +6.8 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 1 | -0.7 | -0.14 | -6.3 |
| Jameis Winston | NO | NE | 24 | +0.263 | +0.219 | +0.044 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.19 | +3.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | SF | 32 | +0.245 | +0.226 | +0.019 | +7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.39 | +15.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | LAC | 46 | +0.240 | +0.241 | -0.002 | +11.0 | 2 / 0 | -5.2 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.06 | +1.2 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | HOU | 37 | +0.236 | +0.324 | -0.088 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | +0.36 | -0.3 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | JAX | 34 | +0.219 | +0.349 | -0.130 | +7.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | +14.0 |
| Derek Carr | LV | MIA | 46 | +0.206 | +0.144 | +0.062 | +9.5 | 1 / 0 | -11.7 | 3 | -5.8 | +0.75 | -1.8 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | ATL | 37 | +0.135 | +0.206 | -0.071 | +5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.02 | +0.3 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | IND | 28 | +0.133 | +0.118 | +0.015 | +3.7 | 2 / 0 | -9.1 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.08 | +1.2 |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | NYG | 39 | +0.129 | +0.132 | -0.003 | +5.0 | 0 / 1 | -1.3 | 3 | -4.0 | +0.21 | +4.2 |
| Jared Goff | DET | BAL | 32 | +0.087 | +0.098 | -0.011 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.0 | +0.22 | +4.9 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | DET | 34 | +0.076 | +0.218 | -0.142 | +2.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.9 | 4 | -2.9 | +0.04 | +5.5 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | GB | 44 | +0.038 | +0.015 | +0.023 | +1.7 | 1 / 1 | -9.6 | 4 | -8.8 | +0.25 | -2.1 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | MIN | 34 | +0.034 | +0.021 | +0.013 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.13 | +13.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | CHI | 35 | -0.045 | -0.057 | +0.012 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -12.8 | -0.06 | +0.6 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | DAL | 41 | -0.074 | -0.152 | +0.078 | -3.0 | 2 / 0 | -12.7 | 2 | -4.7 | -0.23 | -3.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | MIA | LV | 51 | -0.119 | -0.053 | -0.065 | -6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.21 | -3.7 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | CIN | 62 | -0.163 | -0.144 | -0.018 | -10.1 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 4 | -5.3 | -0.28 | -5.4 |
| Mac Jones | NE | NO | 53 | -0.224 | -0.319 | +0.094 | -11.9 | 3 / 0 | -16.3 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.32 | -1.0 |
| Davis Mills | HOU | CAR | 31 | -0.240 | -0.233 | -0.007 | -7.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.0 | -0.10 | +6.1 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | TEN | 39 | -0.243 | -0.219 | -0.024 | -9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.36 | -7.7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | ARI | 36 | -0.348 | -0.361 | +0.013 | -12.5 | 2 / 2 | -18.2 | 3 | -7.7 | -0.32 | +2.8 |
| Zach Wilson | NYJ | DEN | 40 | -0.611 | -0.603 | -0.008 | -24.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 5 | -8.3 | -0.19 | -8.9 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | CLE | 29 | -0.763 | -0.753 | -0.010 | -22.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 9 | -16.7 | -0.34 | -38.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.