Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Games
Adj margin = offence minus defence EPA per play after the opponent adjustment. Win exp = how often a team with that adjusted margin wins; a 55% win was a coin flip that landed. Win prob range = lowest and highest in-game chance, which is where blown leads and comebacks show.
| Team | Score | vs line | Off EPA/playraw → adj | Def EPA/playraw → adj | Adj margin | Win exp | Win prob range | Turnoverslost / forced |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE W | 41–16 | +27.5dog 2.5 | +0.31 → +0.31 | -0.31 → -0.32 | +0.63 | 100%raw 100% | 32% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ CIN L | 16–41 | -27.5fav 2.5 | -0.31 → -0.33 | +0.31 → +0.30 | -0.63 | 0%raw 0% | 0% – 68% | 3 / 0 |
| DEN W | 30–16 | +24.5dog 10.5 | +0.15 → +0.20 | -0.20 → -0.24 | +0.44 | 99%raw 99% | 35% – 100% | 0 / 1 |
| @ DAL L | 16–30 | -24.5fav 10.5 | -0.20 → -0.21 | +0.15 → +0.19 | -0.40 | 1%raw 1% | 0% – 65% | 1 / 0 |
| ARI W | 31–17 | +19.5dog 5.5 | +0.24 → +0.29 | -0.11 → -0.15 | +0.44 | 99%raw 99% | 42% – 100% | 0 / 3 |
| @ SF L | 17–31 | -19.5fav 5.5 | -0.11 → -0.09 | +0.24 → +0.23 | -0.31 | 3%raw 1% | 0% – 58% | 3 / 0 |
| NE W | 24–6 | +14.5fav 3.5 | -0.04 → -0.02 | -0.49 → -0.42 | +0.40 | 99%raw 100% | 30% – 100% | 2 / 3 |
| @ CAR L | 6–24 | -14.5dog 3.5 | -0.49 → -0.50 | -0.04 → -0.07 | -0.43 | 1%raw 0% | 0% – 70% | 3 / 2 |
| TEN W | 28–16 | +19.0dog 7.0 | -0.08 → +0.00 | -0.24 → -0.28 | +0.28 | 96%raw 90% | 34% – 100% | 1 / 2 |
| @ LA L | 16–28 | -19.0fav 7.0 | -0.24 → -0.25 | -0.08 → -0.12 | -0.14 | 18%raw 10% | 0% – 66% | 2 / 1 |
| GB L | 7–13 | +1.0dog 7.0 | -0.01 → -0.03 | -0.15 → -0.28 | +0.25 | 94%raw 88% | 1% – 43% | 1 / 0 |
| @ KC W | 13–7 | -1.0fav 7.0 | -0.15 → -0.15 | -0.01 → -0.12 | -0.04 | 40%raw 12% | 57% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| ATL W | 27–25 | +9.0dog 7.0 | +0.10 → +0.19 | -0.05 → -0.01 | +0.20 | 90%raw 88% | 35% – 99% | 0 / 1 |
| @ NO L | 25–27 | -9.0fav 7.0 | -0.05 → -0.10 | +0.10 → +0.16 | -0.26 | 5%raw 12% | 1% – 65% | 1 / 0 |
| BUF L | 6–9 | -17.5fav 14.5 | -0.17 → -0.26 | -0.21 → -0.14 | -0.12 | 21%raw 64% | 4% – 62% | 3 / 1 |
| @ JAX W | 9–6 | +17.5dog 14.5 | -0.21 → -0.15 | -0.17 → -0.29 | +0.14 | 82%raw 36% | 38% – 96% | 1 / 3 |
| MIN L | 31–34 | +4.5dog 7.5 | +0.17 → +0.17 | +0.11 → +0.09 | +0.08 | 72%raw 72% | 10% – 90% | 0 / 2 |
| @ BAL W | 34–31 | -4.5fav 7.5 | +0.11 → +0.10 | +0.17 → +0.16 | -0.05 | 35%raw 28% | 10% – 90% | 2 / 0 |
| CHI L | 27–29 | +5.0dog 7.0 | +0.12 → +0.14 | +0.02 → +0.07 | +0.07 | 69%raw 80% | 4% – 49% | 1 / 0 |
| @ PIT W | 29–27 | -5.0fav 7.0 | +0.02 → +0.00 | +0.12 → +0.20 | -0.19 | 10%raw 20% | 51% – 96% | 0 / 1 |
| LAC W | 27–24 | +2.0fav 1.0 | +0.28 → +0.28 | +0.22 → +0.23 | +0.05 | 64%raw 69% | 31% – 91% | 0 / 0 |
| @ PHI L | 24–27 | -2.0dog 1.0 | +0.22 → +0.21 | +0.28 → +0.24 | -0.03 | 42%raw 31% | 9% – 69% | 0 / 0 |
| NYJ L | 30–45 | -4.5dog 10.5 | +0.22 → +0.25 | +0.44 → +0.41 | -0.17 | 13%raw 5% | 0% – 44% | 2 / 0 |
| @ IND W | 45–30 | +4.5fav 10.5 | +0.44 → +0.37 | +0.22 → +0.32 | +0.05 | 63%raw 95% | 56% – 100% | 0 / 2 |
| HOU L | 9–17 | -4.0dog 4.0 | -0.31 → -0.28 | -0.19 → -0.16 | -0.12 | 21%raw 17% | 0% – 62% | 4 / 4 |
| @ MIA W | 17–9 | +4.0fav 4.0 | -0.19 → -0.28 | -0.31 → -0.25 | -0.03 | 42%raw 83% | 38% – 100% | 4 / 4 |
| LV L | 16–23 | -10.0fav 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.06 | -0.05 → +0.06 | -0.13 | 20%raw 50% | 1% – 66% | 3 / 1 |
| @ NYG W | 23–16 | +10.0dog 3.0 | -0.05 → -0.09 | -0.05 → -0.04 | -0.05 | 36%raw 50% | 34% – 99% | 1 / 3 |
Quarterbacks this week
Click a column to sort. Schedule = what the opponent adjustment added (+ = faced a tough pass defence). Turnover and sack EPA are what those plays cost; sacks are shared with the line.
| Quarterback | Team | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | ATL | NO | 32 | +0.657 | +0.541 | +0.115 | +21.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.71 | +14.8 |
| Mike White | NYJ | IND | 11 | +0.595 | +0.576 | +0.019 | +6.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -0.5 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | PHI | 38 | +0.582 | +0.591 | -0.009 | +22.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.84 | +16.8 |
| Colt McCoy | ARI | SF | 28 | +0.503 | +0.476 | +0.028 | +14.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.0 | +0.24 | +12.6 |
| Baker Mayfield | CLE | CIN | 23 | +0.449 | +0.454 | -0.005 | +10.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.4 | +0.14 | +14.4 |
| Carson Wentz | IND | NYJ | 31 | +0.410 | +0.513 | -0.103 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.22 | +7.6 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | DEN | DAL | 33 | +0.364 | +0.274 | +0.089 | +12.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.06 | +7.4 |
| Josh Johnson | NYJ | IND | 43 | +0.354 | +0.336 | +0.019 | +15.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.03 | -3.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | LAC | 18 | +0.315 | +0.312 | +0.003 | +5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.5 | +0.23 | +9.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | MIN | BAL | 28 | +0.270 | +0.274 | -0.004 | +7.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -2.2 |
| Justin Fields | CHI | PIT | 32 | +0.196 | +0.140 | +0.056 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.28 | +6.2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | ARI | 45 | +0.148 | +0.124 | +0.024 | +6.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.21 | +4.8 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | CHI | 33 | +0.143 | +0.127 | +0.016 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -2.3 | +0.29 | +9.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | MIN | 44 | -0.028 | -0.040 | +0.012 | -1.2 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 3 | -2.8 | +0.28 | -0.2 |
| Ryan Tannehill | TEN | LA | 30 | -0.045 | -0.141 | +0.097 | -1.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 3 | -2.9 | -0.04 | +0.4 |
| Jordan Love | GB | KC | 35 | -0.050 | -0.023 | -0.027 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.16 | -3.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | BUF | 28 | -0.069 | -0.140 | +0.071 | -1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.16 | -7.2 |
| Daniel Jones | NYG | LV | 22 | -0.120 | -0.054 | -0.066 | -2.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.8 | 2 | -7.0 | -0.01 | +12.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | MIA | HOU | 47 | -0.166 | -0.068 | -0.098 | -7.8 | 2 / 1 | -11.4 | 4 | -9.8 | -0.08 | +1.1 |
| Derek Carr | LV | NYG | 47 | -0.167 | -0.156 | -0.011 | -7.8 | 2 / 1 | -14.7 | 1 | -4.2 | -0.22 | -3.2 |
| Mac Jones | NE | CAR | 20 | -0.186 | -0.181 | -0.006 | -3.7 | 1 / 1 | -10.8 | 2 | -6.4 | +0.00 | -1.3 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | DEN | 41 | -0.201 | -0.203 | +0.002 | -8.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.19 | -14.0 |
| Trevor Siemian | NO | ATL | 43 | -0.215 | -0.138 | -0.077 | -9.2 | 0 / 1 | -8.4 | 1 | -8.4 | -0.01 | -5.3 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | GB | 38 | -0.218 | -0.236 | +0.017 | -8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.10 | -11.4 |
| Tyrod Taylor | HOU | MIA | 47 | -0.258 | -0.308 | +0.051 | -12.1 | 3 / 0 | -12.3 | 5 | -6.3 | -0.43 | -3.4 |
| Josh Allen | BUF | JAX | 51 | -0.310 | -0.171 | -0.139 | -15.8 | 2 / 0 | -9.3 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.30 | -0.4 |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | CLE | 45 | -0.318 | -0.319 | +0.000 | -14.3 | 2 / 0 | -17.9 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.23 | +9.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | LA | TEN | 53 | -0.404 | -0.377 | -0.026 | -21.4 | 2 / 0 | -14.0 | 5 | -8.3 | -0.60 | -7.2 |
| Sam Darnold | CAR | NE | 34 | -0.698 | -0.721 | +0.022 | -23.7 | 3 / 0 | -20.6 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.41 | -14.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.